HomeMy WebLinkAboutHazel Rheinhart Edina 20230
EDINA PUBLIC SCHOOLS #273 RESIDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Hazel H. Reinhardt
7/3/2023
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EDINA PUBLIC SCHOOLS
RESIDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Executive Summary
Since 2012-13
• The Edina Public Schools’ enrollment (excluding Early Childhood) increased by 188 students or
2.3 percent
o Nonresidents make up 22.6 percent of total enrollment in 2022-23
o The Edina Public Schools had a net gain of 1,395 students from other public options
• Resident enrollment (excluding Early Childhood) decreased by 476 students or -6.8 percent,
although the resident enrolled school age population in the district increased by 295 students or
3.5 percent
o The market share of the Edina Public Schools is 75.3 percent
o An ever-increasing number of district residents are opting for nonpublic schools
In ten years, that is, in 2032-33
• Edina Public Schools resident enrollment (excluding Early Childhood) is projected to range from
6,323 to 6,432, a decrease of -3.8 to -2.1 percent from the 2022-23 resident enrollment of 6,571
(excluding Early Childhood)
• Resident K-5 enrollment is projected to increase/decrease slightly and resident Grade 6 to 8
enrollment is projected to be flat. Resident high school enrollment is projected to decrease in
the first five projection years and then increase but be lower in ten years than it is today
• Resident Kindergarten is projected to be about the same size as the previous year’s resident
Grade 12
• Net out migration is projected to be less than in the recent past
In five years, that is, in 2027-28
• Countryside Elementary School is projected to have a substantial increase in resident students
(190 students), largely the result of adding the Dual Spanish Immersion program at that site
What could occur to make these projections too high or too low
• Too high
o Projected resident kindergarten is too high
o More residents opt for nonpublic schools
• Too low
o Projected resident kindergarten too low
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COVID-19 AFFECTS
In 2020-21, Minnesota public school enrollment was affected by the COVID-19 Pandemic.
Kindergarten classes were smaller and elementary students, in general, were lost to home schools
and/or private schools. Middle school and high school enrollment was less affected by the Pandemic.
2022-23 marks the third year that Minnesota public school enrollment is below pre-Pandemic
numbers.
In 2020-21, the COVID-19 Pandemic affected resident enrollment in the Edina Public Schools as
follows:
• The 2020-21 resident kindergarten was slightly smaller than its “expected” size. However, since
the Pandemic, resident kindergarten is at its “expected” size.
• Students shifted to other educational options:
o The Pandemic stimulated a substantial increase in residents attending nonpublic
schools. Resident nonpublic enrollment had been increasing for some time. Since the
Pandemic, resident nonpublic enrollment has continued to increase.
o There was a substantial increase in nonresidents through open enrollment; however,
this may or may not be Pandemic related as nonresident enrollment has been
increasing.
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RESIDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Introduction
Public school enrollment is affected by the size of a school district’s school age population and
the education choices available to district residents. Attending school is compulsory based on age;
therefore, the number of school age children is a demographic phenomenon. A district’s school age
population is closely related to other population characteristics of the district, especially the age of the
district’s population. For example, the age of adults, especially the number of women of prime
childbearing age, affects the number of births, which translates into kindergarten classes five to six years
later. The age of adults also affects population mobility because older people move less frequently than
younger people. The movement of families with children under 18 years also affects enrollment and in a
mobile society, enrollment can change throughout the school year as families with children move.
While population changes affect the total number of school age children residing in a school
district, Minnesota students and their families have education choices. These choices also affect
enrollment in a district’s schools. Therefore, when analyzing public school enrollment, choice must be
considered as well as population dynamics. Choice includes nonpublic schools, home schools, and the
public options of open enrollment, charter schools and alternative schools. Two other choices exist: a)
dropping out of high school, and b) delaying starting kindergarten (academic redshirting).
Enrollment Trends
Enrollment in the Edina Public Schools
Current Enrollment/Past Trends
Enrollment trends play out over extended periods of time. Total enrollment in the Edina Public
Schools increased while resident enrollment decreased since 2012-13. In the past ten years, total
enrollment increased by 188 students or 2.3 percent while resident enrollment decreased by 476
students or -6.8 percent. Total enrollment increased because nonresident enrollment increased from
1,243 students to 1,907 students. In 2022-23, nonresidents make up 22.5 percent of total enrollment.
The percentage of nonresidents was 15.0 percent in 2012-13.
ENROLLMENT
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
8,290 8,342 8,404 8,249 8,474 8,477 8,390 8,329 8,244 8,376 8,478
Source: Edina Public Schools, Fall Enrollment. Excludes Early Childhood
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RESIDENT ENROLLMENT
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
7,047 7,081 7,082 6,983 7,195 7,218 7,085 6,938 6,639 6,537 6,571
Resident enrollment is total enrollment less open enrollment in and tuition enrollment in (see page 6)
Source: Edina Public Schools, Fall Enrollment. Excludes Early Childhood
To better understand resident enrollment change, it is important to understand the components
of this change. Like all population changes, school enrollment changes result from two different
phenomena—natural increase/decrease and net migration. The difference between the size of the
incoming kindergarten class and the previous year’s Grade 12, called natural increase or decrease,
measures the change in past birth numbers or cohort change. For example, the Baby Boom (1946-1964)
and the Baby Bust (1965-1976) set in motion cycles of rising and falling enrollment that are expressed as
natural increase/decrease. As the next table shows, since 2012-13, Edina Public Schools’ resident
Kindergarten classes were smaller than the previous year’s resident Grade 12 every year and as a result
natural decrease cost Edina resident enrollment 420 students since 2012-13.
COMPONENTS OF RESIDENT ENROLLMENT CHANGE
October
To
October
Total
Natural
Increase/
Decrease
Net
Migration # %
2012 to 2013 34 0.5% -2 36
2013 to 2014 1 0.0% -31 32
2014 to 2015 -99 -1.4% -123 24
2015 to 2016 212 3.0% 30 182
2016 to 2017 23 0.3% -14 37
2017 to 2018 -133 -1.8% -46 -87
2018 to 2019 -147 -2.1% -78 -69
2019 to 2020 -299 -4.3% -76 -223
2020 to 2021 -102 -1.5% -71 -31
2021 to 2022 34 0.5% -9 43
Total -476 --- -420 -56
The other phenomenon affecting school enrollment is migration, an indirectly derived estimate.
Migration is the term used when people move across a boundary or border, in this case, the school
district’s boundaries. Net migration is calculated by the progression from grade-to-grade of public-
school students. For example, public school Kindergarten students are moved to Grade 1 in the
following year, Grade 1 students to Grade 2, etc. Because the probability of death is incredibly low
among children, the same number of students is expected in the next higher grade the following year.
Therefore, if the number of students changes, migration is assumed to have occurred. A positive
number indicates a net flow into the public schools and a negative number reflects a net flow out of the
public schools.
This method for estimating migration does not distinguish between physical movement across
the district’s boundaries and education choices, such as transferring from a nonpublic school to a public
school, transferring to a charter school or open enrolling in a public school outside the district. Further,
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students who move into or out of a school district but never enroll in the district’s public schools are not
reflected in the migration numbers in this report.
Based on the described methodology, resident net migration was positive before 2017-18 and
again this past year; however, net out migration cost Edina resident enrollment 56 students since 2012-
13. The combination of net migration and natural increase/decrease is the change in enrollment.
Student Choices in the Edina Public Schools
The number of education options available affects enrollment in a district's public schools.
Nonpublic schools have been an option for many years. More recently, home schools have become
another option. Since their inception, public school options have been attracting more students every
year. Open enrollment allows residents of one district to attend the public schools in another district.
Charter schools are another public option. All these choices mean competition for students.
Nonpublic Enrollment and Home Schools
Today, nonpublic enrollment falls into two categories—traditional nonpublic schools and home
schools. Many traditional nonpublic schools are associated with religious institutions and many home
school curriculums are faith based as well.
In Minnesota, 7.2 percent of all enrolled students were enrolled in traditional nonpublic schools
and 2.9 percent of enrolled students were homeschooled in 2021-22. In the Edina School District, 18.7
percent of students attended a traditional nonpublic school. Homeschooled students accounted for 0.4
percent of all enrolled students.
NONPUBLIC SETTINGS
Year
Traditional
Nonpublic Schools
Home Schools
Total
2012-13 1,181 24 1,205
2013-14 1,190 24 1,214
2014-15 1,320 25 1,345
2015-16 1,293 36 1,329
2016-17 1,278 37 1,315
2017-18 1,323 42 1,365
2018-19 1,284 29 1,313
2019-20 1,329 28 1,357
2020-21 1,490 30 1,520
2021-22 1,589 32 1,621
2022-23 1,614 31 1,645
The increase in traditional nonpublic enrollment between 2013-14 and 2014-15 may be
a function of data sources
Source: Edina Public Schools
The proportion of ISD #273 residents in nonpublic settings is much larger than the statewide
percentage. Combining home school students and nonpublic students, 19.1 percent of Edina School
District residents were in nonpublic settings. In Minnesota, 10.1 percent of all students were enrolled in
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nonpublic settings. Before the Pandemic, traditional nonpublic enrollment decreased statewide, while
the number of homeschooled students increased. The number of Edina School District residents in
traditional nonpublic schools increased in the past ten years, especially in the Pandemic year (2020-21)
and continued to increase in the post-Pandemic years. The number of homeschooled children is flat in
the Edina School District, with very few resident students being homeschooled.
Public Options
Open Enrollment. Open enrollment allows Minnesota students to attend public schools outside
their district of residence. The application to open enroll is made by the student and his/her parents
and families generally provide their own school transportation. No tuition is charged.
Some students attend public schools outside their home district because their home district
enters into an agreement with another district, usually to provide specialized services. This is called a
tuition agreement, but this arrangement is not technically a student choice.
Since its beginning, open enrollment has attracted ever more students statewide as well as in
the Edina School District. In 2021-22, 1,839 nonresident students open enrolled in the Edina Public
Schools while 189 district residents open enrolled in public schools elsewhere. In 2022-23, 1,907
nonresidents enrolled in the Edina Public Schools while 349 residents attend a public school elsewhere
through open enrollment.
PUBLIC OPTIONS
Year
In Out
Net
Open
Enrollment
Tuition
Agreements
Open
Enrollment
Tuition
Agreements
Charter
Schools
2012-13 1,243 75 106 1,062
2013-14 1,261 73 98 1,090
2014-15 1,322 89 95 1,138
2015-16 1,266 118 100 1,048
2016-17 1,279 120 53 1,106
2017-18 1,259 126 124 1,009
2018-19 1,305 127 130 1,048
2019-20 1,391 285 20 139 967
2020-21 1,605 300 13 160 1,145
2021-22 1,839 189 138 1,512
2022-23 1,907 349 163 1,395
In the early years, residents attending Intermediate District #287 were not included in open enrollment as reported by the
district in these numbers; however, in later years they are included in the open enrollment numbers (2019-20 and thereafter)
Source: Edina Public Schools
Nonresident students who open enrolled in the Edina Area Schools accounted for 22.0 percent
of Edina’s total enrollment in 2021-22. Students leaving the district via open enrollment to attend public
schools elsewhere represented 2.2 percent of the district’s school age residents. In 2021-22, 9.0 percent
of Minnesota students chose open enrollment.
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Charter Schools. Charter schools are another public education option. While 6.9 percent of
Minnesota students attended charter schools in 2021-22, 1.6 percent of Edina School District residents
attended a charter school.
As the education choice data show, in 2022-23, excluding tuition agreement students, the
district has a net gain of 1,395 students from other public options, i.e., open enrollment.
K-12 Market Share of District School Age Residents
Estimating market share requires an estimate of a school district’s school age population. The
best estimate results from adding Edina Public Schools’ resident students to the district residents
attending traditional nonpublic schools, being homeschooled, and opting for open enrollment out,
charter schools and other public options.
Based on 2012-13 and 2022-23, the estimated resident enrolled school age population increased
from 8,433 to 8,728 students, an increase of 295 students or 3.5 percent. This increase may be slightly
overstated because residents attending Intermediate District #287 are not reflected in 2012-13.
Resident enrollment in the Edina Public Schools (excluding Early Childhood) decreased by 476 students
or -6.8 percent during the same period. Based on the estimated 2022-23 enrolled population of 8,728,
the Edina Public Schools (excluding Early Childhood) captured 75.3 percent of the district’s school age
population. In 2012-13, market share was 83.6 percent. A decreasing market share is typical in
Minnesota but lost due to an increase in nonpublic enrollment is unusual.
EDINA PUBLIC SCHOOLS ESTIMATED RESIDENT SCHOOL AGE POPULATION
Year
Edina Public
Schools
Resident
Enrollment
Nonpublic
Settings
Public
Options
Other*
Total
2012-13 7,047 1,205 181 8,433
2013-14 7,081 1,214 171 8,466
2014-15 7,082 1,345 184 8,611
2015-16 6,983 1,329 218 8,530
2016-17 7,195 1,315 173 8,683
2017-18 7,218 1,365 250 8,833
2018-19 7,085 1,313 257 8,655
2019-20 6,938 1,357 444 --- 8,739
2020-21 6,639 1,520 473 --- 8,632
2021-22 6,537 1,621 327 --- 8,485
2022-23 6,571 1,645 512 --- 8,728
*Other is for residents attending Intermediate District #287. Number of students not readily available
History of Resident Enrollment by Grade
The history of resident enrollment contains several patterns with implications for future
enrollment. First, resident kindergarten size fluctuated from year to year; however, resident
kindergarten is 27 students larger than ten years ago. Resident kindergarten in the past three years is at
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or near its “expected” size suggesting that the Pandemic has not had much effect and certainly no
lingering effect on resident kindergarten size, especially in the past two years.
The number of resident students per grade varies in the Edina Public Schools. A way of
expressing the differences by grade is to look at the “average” number of resident students per grade.
For example, in 2022-23, the average resident elementary grade (K-5) has 506 students. The average
resident middle school grade (6-8) has 501 students and the average resident high school grade is 508
students. There is no consistent net in migration at the beginning of middle school or at the beginning
of high school, which means that resident students do not enter the Edina Public Schools if they have
attended a nonpublic elementary school but rather, they remain in nonpublic schools. Based on
current resident grade sizes, without resident net in migration and larger resident kindergarten classes,
future resident enrollment will be flat.
Minnesota's largest graduating high school class since 1978 graduated in 2009. Statewide,
graduating classes will be getting smaller. Based on Edina’s enrollment history, Edina’s largest recent
resident senior class graduated in 2019.
RESIDENT ENROLLMENT
Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
K 476 516 490 415 524 523 505 500 469 478 504
1 482 501 549 499 481 553 525 523 495 488 504
2 557 505 511 573 527 497 551 527 494 509 508
3 548 574 517 526 588 528 507 545 503 500 510
4 579 550 587 523 529 598 537 499 520 502 502
5 557 592 559 591 534 529 589 550 477 534 508
6 570 559 589 576 593 536 542 570 523 468 533
7 584 571 567 609 575 579 515 523 541 502 458
8 550 577 572 568 599 581 565 516 504 529 512
9 548 540 550 577 576 585 542 551 500 495 524
10 558 538 529 523 577 580 582 535 534 496 494
11 520 537 524 509 555 578 547 554 530 523 495
12 518 521 538 494 537 551 578 545 549 513 519
Total 7,047 7,081 7,082 6,983 7,195 7,218 7,085 6,938 6,639 6,537 6,571
Source: Edina Public Schools, Fall Enrollment. Excludes Early Childhood
Enrollment Projections
Projection Background
Some factors affecting future school enrollment are known. However, other crucial factors are less
clear. The difficulty in quantifying the effect of these factors is a challenge. First, the trends around
which there is confidence.
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Trends Where Confidence is High
• Aging. The population in the U.S. and Minnesota is aging. In 2020, 15.6 percent of Minnesota’s
population was 65 years old or older. In 2010, the elderly made up 12.9 percent of the
population. In this decade, for the first time in history, Minnesota’s 65+ population is expected
to exceed the 5-17 population (K-12 population). There is no historical precedent for this high
proportion of older population; therefore, society is entering uncharted waters as to the effects
of this change. However, we know that aging will affect the housing market and reduce
geographic mobility because older people move less frequently than younger people. Further,
the percentage of households with school age children will decline.
• Fertility. Today, completed fertility (1.73) is below replacement level and there is little reason to
think this will change soon. Completed fertility refers to the number of children born per
woman throughout her childbearing years. (Replacement is 2.11 children per female at the end
of childbearing.) In Minnesota, White non-Hispanic women have below replacement fertility.
Fertility rates for Asian and Hispanic women are now near replacement. Black women (African
American and African-born) have the highest fertility level, just below 3, that is, just less than 3
children per woman at the end of childbearing.
Unknowns
The unknowns reflect changes in the housing market, the economy and in international
immigration.
• Long-term effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic and economic shutdown. Unknown; however,
births have fallen, unemployment is low, and several economic sectors have been hit hard.
Some changes due to the Pandemic seem to be lasting, e.g., remote work and education choices
among them.
• The housing markets. The district is fully built out; however, there are teardowns every year
and the number of multi-family units has increased significantly, although multi-family units do
not produce many school age children per unit. A robust housing market results in more
mobility and this can influence enrollment.
• Immigration. Both the economy and public policy affect international immigration. Future
students from international migration are impossible to predict.
• Delay/postponement of childbearing. The Millennials delayed marriage, childbearing, and home
ownership. More recently, a higher percentage of 18–49-year-olds report that it is not likely
they will have children or have additional children.
• Competition. The establishment of charter schools is hard to predict, and open enrollment
continues to increase.
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Cohort Survival Method
The most common and most robust model for projecting school enrollment is the cohort
survival method. The first step in the cohort survival method is aging the population. In a standard
cohort survival model, aging the population involves estimating the number of deaths expected in an
age group before it reaches the next older age group. When the cohort survival method is used to
project school enrollment, the first step is to move a grade to the next higher grade. Because mortality
is so low in the school age population, the entire grade is assumed to “survive” to the next higher grade
in the following year.
After aging the current enrollment, two key assumptions must be made. These assumptions
concern the size of future kindergartens and the number of students who will move in or out of the
district’s schools. Some of these students may physically move in or out of the district. Other students
may transfer between the Edina Public Schools and other education options available to them. Both
these phenomena affect the “survival rates.”
Once a grade or cohort has been “aged” to the next higher grade, net migration is added to or
subtracted from that grade. Using survival rates accomplishes both “aging,” death, and migration in a
single step. Over time, the size of a cohort will increase or decrease because of migration as it
progresses through the grades. For example, the 2012-13 resident kindergarten class had 476
members. This same cohort has 494 members in Grade 10 in 2022-23.
The future size of kindergarten is especially important in long-term enrollment projections
because these students will be in school over the life of the projections. If a school census exists, it is a
resource for short-term kindergarten projections, i.e., a couple of years. However, school censuses are
notoriously inaccurate for children less than four years of age, in part, because the preschool population
is more mobile than the school age population.
To project kindergarten, the best theoretical approach, but the least practical, is to project
births based on the age of the female population. To yield kindergarten projections, these birth
projections then must be survived to age five and then adjusted for migration. Determining the age of
females in a school district is the first challenge, and then many assumptions must be made, making this
approach impractical.
A simpler approach is to use resident births as a proxy for kindergarten five to six years later. Of
course, not every child born in the district will enter the district's kindergarten classes five to six years
later. However, some "district born" children who move out before enrolling in kindergarten will be
replaced by children born elsewhere who move in before entering kindergarten. If the number of "ins"
and "outs" are equal, the net effect is zero and kindergarten would be 100 percent of resident births.
However, no public-school system captures all the potential students. Some kindergarten students
attend private schools or are homeschooled. Others may attend a charter school or open enroll at
another district. Therefore, a public school's kindergarten to birth ratio is expected to be less than 100
percent. If the ratio is 100 percent or higher, more preschool children are moving into the district or
open enrolling into the district (in migration) than leaving (out migration).
If births are used as a kindergarten proxy, kindergarten projections are available for only a few
years into the future. To extend kindergarten projections another five years, Edina Public Schools’
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resident kindergarten will be projected based on the Minnesota State Demography Center’s projections
of Minnesota 0-year-olds.
Resident Kindergarten Assumptions
After 1990, births fell in the U.S. and in Minnesota; however, from 2003 through 2007, births
increased and in 2007, U.S. births were higher than at any time since 1964. Then from 2008 through
2011, births fell in the U.S. and Minnesota. These declines are attributed to the poor economy (Great
Recession). Beginning in 2012, Minnesota resident births began to increase but did not return to their
2007 level. Then, births began to decline again. From 2015 through 2020 Minnesota resident births
were lower than births in 2014.
As the history of resident births shows, in 2020, Minnesota resident births were 10,064 births or
-13.7 percent lower than in 2006. Hennepin County resident births were 1,945 births or -11.6 percent
lower fourteen years later. Suburban Hennepin County births, however, were only 682 or -6.7 percent
lower.
About one-third (33 percent) of births occur between September 1 and December 31 every
year. Therefore, about two-thirds of those eligible for kindergarten were born 5 years earlier and one-
third were born 6 years earlier. Adjusting calendar year resident births to fit the age requirement for
kindergarten will be referred to as the kindergarten pool.
RESIDENT LIVE BIRTHS
Year
Minnesota
Hennepin
County
Suburban
Hennepin
County
2006 73,515 16,780 10,223
2007 73,675 16,848 10,532
2008 72,382 16,566 10,212
2009 70,617 16,334 10,017
2010 68,407 15,955 9,854
2011 68,416 15,943 9,894
2012 68,783 16,345 10,294
2013 69,183 16,584 10,468
2014 69,916 16,770 10,536
2015 69,835 16,829 10,626
2016 69,746 16,485 10,400
2017 68,603 16,333 10,451
2018 67,348 15,844 10,152
2019 66,033 15,430 9,908
2020 63,451 14,835 9,541
2021 64,398 n.a. n.a.
Suburban Hennepin County is Hennepin County minus Minneapolis City
Source: Minnesota Department of Health
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The next table shows the Suburban Hennepin County kindergarten pool along with the Edina
Public Schools’ resident kindergarten share of the pool. Like many other percentages, the ratio of
resident kindergarten students to the pool fluctuates. Typically, a more stable trend appears when rates
are averaged. (Calculating the average of the kindergarten to birth ratio for two or more years smooths
out annual fluctuations and produces a more “typical” ratio for that period.)
As the percentages show, Edina Public Schools’ resident kindergarten share has been
remarkedly stable for the past eleven years ranging from a low of 4.19 percent in 2015-16 to a high of
5.30 percent in 2016-17. Omitting the Pandemic year (2020-21), the past five years average 4.74
percent. The average of the past eleven years is 4.77 percent. Omitting the Pandemic year, the average
of the past eleven years is 4.80 percent. Based on these numbers the average of the past five years
omitting the Pandemic year (4.77 percent) will be used as the low kindergarten assumption and
omitting the Pandemic year, the average of the past eleven years (4.80 percent) will be used as the high
kindergarten assumption.
EDINA PUBLIC SCHOOLS RESIDENT KINDERGARTEN
AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE SUBURBAN HENNEPIN COUNTY
KINDERGARTEN POOL
Birth Years
Kindergarten
Pool
Percentage
Kindergarten
Year
2006; 2007 10,430 4.56% 2012-13
2007; 2008 10,318 5.00% 2013-14
2008; 2009 10,081 4.86% 2014-15
2009; 2010 9,908 4.19% 2015-16
2010; 2011 9,881 5.30% 2016-17
2011; 2012 10,162 5.15% 2017-18
2012; 2013 10,411 4.85% 2018-19
2013; 2014 10,513 4.76% 2019-20
2014; 2015 10,596 4.43% 2020-21
2015; 2016 10,475 4.56% 2021-22
2016; 2017 10,534 4.78% 2022-23
2017; 2018 10,251 2023-24
2018; 2019 10,037 2024-25
2019; 2020 9,662 2025-26
To extend kindergarten projections beyond 2025-26, projected Minnesota 0-year-olds will be
used as a guide. In 2019, resident births were 4,340 births lower than the projected 2019 0-year-olds or
93.8 percent of the projected number while 2020 births were only 90.2 percent of the projected
number. However, the Pandemic lowered 2020 births. Still, there is no reason to believe that births will
increase to equal the 2019 projection. Therefore, the projected number of 0-year-olds will be adjusted
to be 93.8 percent of the projections for 2021 and beyond. Note that the projections of Minnesota 0-
year-olds are essentially flat between 2020 and 2026. Even these projections may be too high. Most
demographers predict the global pandemic will depress births in the United States and worldwide for
several years, although U.S. births were up by one percent in 2021; however, births were flat in 2022.
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PROJECTED MINNESOTA O-YEAR OLDS
Year
Projected
Number
Adjusted
Number
2017 70,312
2017 Actual 68,603
2018 70,395
2018 Actual 67,348
2019 70,373
2019 Actual 66,033
2020 70,325
2020 Actual 63,451
2021 70,274 65,917
2022 70,227 65,873
2023 70,191 65,814
2024 70,164 65,811
2025 70,161 65,811
2026 70,161 65,811
Source: Minnesota Demographic Center
SUBURBAN HENNEPIN COUNTY
KINDERGARTEN POOL
2022-23 10,534
2023-24 10,251
2024-25 10,037
2025-26 9,662
2026-27 9,791
2027-28 9,910
2028-29 9,901
2029-30 9,898
2030-31 9,898
2031-32 9,898
2032-33 9,898
Pool based on actual births bolded
In the past fifteen years, Suburban Hennepin County resident births fluctuated but increased
their share of Minnesota resident births from 13.91 percent in 2006 to 15.04 percent in 2020. During
this period, the percentages ranged from a low of 13.91 in 2006 to a high of 15.23 in 2017. In the past
three years Suburban Hennepin County’s share averaged 15.04 percent, the same percentage as in
2020. Assuming Suburban Hennepin County’s share of Minnesota 0-year-olds is 15.04 percent in the
next several years, the kindergarten pool would be as shown below. Although the projections show how
“flat” these numbers are likely to be, these numbers are sensitive to minor changes in the assumptions.
Note the increase in pool size from 2026-27 to 2027-28.
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When the kindergarten to birth ratio is applied to the kindergarten pool, kindergarten
projections result. Through 2025-26, the kindergarten projections are based on actual births. The
lowest kindergarten projection (based on the 4.77 percent ratio) results in 4,729 resident kindergarten
students over ten years while the highest kindergarten projection (4.80 percent ratio) yields 4,759
resident kindergarten students over ten years. This compares with 4,989 resident kindergarten students
over the past ten years. The last projection years will not have the same number of resident
kindergarten students every year as projected and shown below, but resident kindergarten is likely to
fluctuate around these numbers. Note that there are fewer projected resident kindergarten students
in the next ten years than in the past ten years.
RESIDENT KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS
@4.77% @4.80%
2022-23 504 504
2023-24 489 492
2024-25 479 482
2025-26 461 464
2026-27 467 470
2027-28 473 476
2028-29 472 475
2029-30 472 475
2030-31 472 475
2031-32 472 475
2032-33 472 475
Total 4,729 4,759
Resident Net Migration Assumptions
The method for calculating migration was explained earlier in this report. However, the
limitations of the methodology are worth repeating. The method of calculating migration does not
distinguish between physical movement across a district’s boundaries and education choices, such as
transferring from a nonpublic school to a public school, transferring to a charter school or open enrolling
in another district’s public schools. Further, students who move into or out of a school district but never
enroll in the district’s public schools are not reflected in the migration numbers in this report.
The next two tables show resident net migration in raw numbers. Resident net migration was
positive pre-2017-18 and again this past year. As the table shows, a larger resident net out migration
occurred in the Pandemic year and the Edina Public Schools have not recovered these students.
The next table shows resident net migration for every grade transition. In the Edina Public
Schools, resident net migration is almost always positive between Kindergarten and Grade 1 and the
numbers tend to be large. Most years, there is also a large inflow between Grade 1 and Grade 2 as well.
This pattern suggests that families move into the district with children who are in Grade 1 and Grade 2.
Unlike many other public schools, there is no consistent net inflow of residents at Grade 9, the
beginning of high school. This pattern suggests that once families decide on private schools, they stay
15
with that choice throughout their students’ K-12 years. Like many other Minnesota schools, there is
resident net out migration during the high school years when some students transfer to Alternative
Learning Centers or drop out of school.
RESIDENT NET MIGRATION
OCTOBER TO OCTOBER
12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to 18 18 to 19 19 to 20 20 to 21 21 to 22
K to 1 25 33 9 66 29 2 18 -5 19 26
1 to 2 23 10 24 28 16 -2 2 -29 14 20
2 to 3 17 12 15 15 1 10 -6 -24 6 1
3 to 4 2 13 6 3 10 9 -8 -25 -1 2
4 to 5 13 9 4 11 0 -9 13 -22 14 6
5 to 6 2 -3 17 2 2 13 -19 -27 -9 -1
6 to 7 1 8 20 -1 -14 -21 -19 -29 -21 -10
7 to 8 -7 1 1 -10 6 -14 1 -19 -12 10
8 to 9 -10 -27 5 8 -14 -39 -14 -16 -9 -5
9 to 10 -10 -11 -27 0 4 -3 -7 -17 -4 -1
10 to 11 -21 -14 -20 32 1 -33 -28 -5 -11 -1
11 to 12 1 1 -30 28 -4 0 -2 -5 -17 -4
Total 36 32 24 182 37 -87 -69 -223 -31 43
Percent 0.5 0.5 0.3 2.6 0.5 -1.2 -1.0 -3.2 -0.5 0.7
The next table summarizes resident net migration by aggregating net migration by the
elementary grades (Kindergarten-Grade 5), the middle school grades (6-8) and the high school grades (9-
12). Except for the Pandemic year, resident net migration is positive at K-5. At the middle school
grades, resident net migration tends to be negative, especially since 2017-18. At the high school grades,
resident net migration is also negative.
RESIDENT NET MIGRATION
OCTOBER TO OCTOBER
12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to 18 18 to 19 19 to 20 20 to 21 21 to 22
K-5 80 77 58 123 56 10 19 -105 52 55
5-8 -4 6 38 -9 -6 -22 -37 -75 -42 -1
9-12 -40 -51 -72 68 -13 -75 -51 -43 -41 -11
Total 36 32 24 182 37 -87 -69 -223 -31 43
Resident net migration numbers when compared to the number of resident students in a grade
result in the percent of students retained, that is, survival rates. Survival rates are an effective way to
analyze the number of students retained, added, or lost each year at each grade. For example, 1.000
indicates no change or 100 percent of the grade progressed to the next highest grade. Any number over
1.000 reflects the percentage increase while a number below 1.000 reflects the percentage decrease.
For example, 0.98 indicates a -2 percent decrease.
16
RESIDENT SURVIVAL RATES
OCTOBER TO OCTOBER
12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16 16 to 17 17 to 18 18 to 19 19 to 20 20 to 21 21 to 22
K to 1 1.053 1.064 1.018 1.159 1.055 1.004 1.036 0.990 1.041 1.054
1 to 2 1.048 1.020 1.044 1.056 1.033 0.996 1.004 0.945 1.028 1.041
2 to 3 1.031 1.024 1.029 1.026 1.002 1.020 0.989 0.954 1.012 1.002
3 to 4 1.004 1.023 1.012 1.006 1.017 1.017 0.984 0.954 0.998 1.004
4 to 5 1.022 1.016 1.007 1.021 1.000 0.985 1.024 0.956 1.027 1.012
5 to 6 1.004 0.995 1.030 1.003 1.004 1.025 0.968 0.951 0.981 0.998
6 to 7 1.002 1.014 1.034 0.998 0.976 0.961 0.965 0.949 0.960 0.979
7 to 8 0.988 1.002 1.002 0.984 1.010 0.976 1.002 0.964 0.978 1.020
8 to 9 0.982 0.953 1.009 1.014 0.977 0.933 0.975 0.969 0.982 0.991
9 to 10 0.982 0.980 0.951 1.000 1.007 0.995 0.987 0.969 0.992 0.998
10 to 11 0.962 0.974 0.962 1.061 1.002 0.943 0.952 0.991 0.979 0.998
11 to 12 1.002 1.002 0.943 1.055 0.993 1.000 0.996 0.991 0.968 0.992
For enrollment projections, calculating an average of two or more years is a way to smooth out
these annual fluctuations. Further, calculating survival rates for projections should avoid the Pandemic
year. Looking at net migration, the average of the past five years omitting the Pandemic year and the
average of the past four years omitting the Pandemic year look like reasonable options.
PROJECTED SURVIVAL RATES
Grade
Low
(Past 5 Years
Omitting the
Pandemic Year)
High
(Past 4 Years
Omitting the
Pandemic Year)
K to 1 1.034 1.044
1 to 2 1.017 1.024
2 to 3 1.006 1.001
3 to 4 1.001 0.995
4 to 5 1.012 1.021
5 to 6 0.993 0.982
6 to 7 0.966 0.968
7 to 8 0.994 1.000
8 to 9 0.970 0.983
9 to 10 0.993 0.992
10 to 11 0.968 0.976
11 to 12 0.989 0.985
The differences between these survival rates can be seen in the projections below. By using the
low kindergarten assumption, the number of kindergarten students is the same in the two projections,
so the differences are solely the result of the survival rates.
17
There is a 76-student difference between the two migration assumptions. The difference at K-5
is 29 students. The difference is 10 students at Grades 6-8 and 40 students at Grades 9-12. The
difference is concentrated in the high school grades.
SUMMARY OF EFFECTS OF SURVIVAL RATES IN TEN YEARS WITH LOW KINDERGARTEN ASSUMPTION
Survival Rates Total K-5 6-8 9-12
Past 5 Years Omitting the Pandemic Year 6,325 2,962 1,460 1,900
Past 4 Years Omitting the Pandemic Year 6,401 2,991 1,470 1,940
Because the reasonable options are limited, the average of the past five years, omitting the
Pandemic year, will be the low migration assumption and the average of the past four years, omitting
the Pandemic year, will be the high assumption for enrollment projections.
Projection Results
The kindergarten and net migration assumptions are trend lines, which remove annual
fluctuations. However, the future, like the past, will be characterized by annual fluctuation, sometimes
large. Because there is no reasonable way to forecast when fluctuations around trend lines will occur, it
is arbitrary to project them. Furthermore, long-term projections are designed to approximate a future
point in time, not to yield the best projection for each intervening year between the present and the
projection end date. For this reason, long-term projections should not be used for annual budgeting
purposes. The district should continue to use its version of the cohort survival methodology for annual
enrollment projections.
Four cohort projections are shown in the next table. In ten years, there is a 109-student
difference between the lowest projection and the highest projection. The kindergarten assumptions
account for a 31-student difference in the ten years. The migration assumptions account for an78-
student difference in ten years. These numbers show that the migration assumptions account for more
of the difference among the projections than the kindergarten assumptions. When looking for the best
projection, the migration assumptions should be carefully evaluated.
The lowest projection is based on the low kindergarten and low migration assumptions. In this
projection, resident enrollment decreases by 248 students or -3.8 percent by 2032-33. In five years,
resident enrollment is 224 students or -3.4 percent lower than today.
The highest projection, based on the high kindergarten and high migration assumptions, shows
resident enrollment decreasing by 139 students or -2.1 percent between 2022-23 and 2032-33. In five
years, resident enrollment decreases by 152 students or -2.3 percent.
In between the highest and lowest resident projections are two other projections. In 2032-33,
these two projections differ by 47 students. As a group, the four resident projections reflect a range of
possibilities with all four projections showing resident enrollment decreasing with most of the decrease
in the first five projection years.
18
RESIDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Year
Low K
Low Mig
High K
Low Mig
Low K
High Mig
High K
High Mig
2022-23 6,571 6,571 6,571 6,571
2023-24 6,512 6,515 6,525 6,528
2024-25 6,473 6,479 6,503 6,509
2025-26 6,433 6,442 6,473 6,483
2026-27 6,374 6,387 6,426 6,438
2027-28 6,347 6,362 6,404 6,419
2028-29 6,370 6,389 6,431 6,450
2029-30 6,341 6,363 6,403 6,425
2030-31 6,337 6,362 6,406 6,432
2031-32 6,333 6,362 6,406 6,434
2032-33 6,323 6,354 6,401 6,432
Excludes Early Childhood
The projections from 2022-23 to 2032-33 reflect the following changes in the components of
enrollment change. Resident enrollment in the Edina Public Schools teeters between natural increase
and natural decrease. In the past ten years, resident natural decrease averaged 42 students per year.
In the next ten years in the low kindergarten projections, natural decrease is either 2 students per year
or natural increase is 4 students per year. The high kindergarten projections range for a natural increase
of 1 student per year to 7 students per year. This represents a change from the past ten years.
COMPONENTS OF PROJECTED RESIDENT ENROLLMENT CHANGE
Oct. to Oct.
2022 to 2032
Total
Natural
Increase/
Decrease
Net
Migration # %
Low K/Low Mig -248 -3.8% 37 -285
High K/Low Mig -217 -3.3% 67 -284
Low K/High Mig -170 -2.6% -18 -152
High K/High Mig -139 -2.1% 12 -151
Excludes Early Childhood
Net out migration continues throughout the projection period. The projections show resident
net out migration averaging 28 to 29 students per year in the low migration projections and 15 students
per year in the high migration projections. Net out migration averaged 36 students per year in the past
five years omitting the Pandemic year. The migration assumptions result in less net out migration than
in the recent past.
Looking at the resident projections based on the elementary, middle school and high school
grades is instructive. Resident K-5 enrollment is projected to increase by 14 students to decrease by 31
students in the next five years. For the first five projection years, the kindergarten students have
already been born. Over ten years, K-5 is projected to decrease by 26 to 74 students.
19
RESIDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
K-5 6-8 9-12 Total
2022-23 3,036 1,503 2,032 6,571
2027-28
Low K/Low Mig 3,005 1,508 1,833 6,347
High K/Low Mig 3,021 1,508 1,833 6,362
Low K/High Mig 3,035 1,499 1,870 6,404
High K/High Mig 3,050 1,499 1,870 6,419
2032-33
Low K/Low Mig 2,962 1,460 1,900 6,323
High K/Low Mig 2,981 1,470 1,903 6,354
Low K/High Mig 2,991 1,470 1,940 6,401
High K/High Mig 3,010 1,479 1,943 6,432
Excludes Early Childhood
In the first five projection years, resident middle school enrollment is 4 students lower to 5
students higher than today, that is, resident middle school enrollment is flat. In the second five
projection years, middle school enrollment decreases by 24 to 43 students. In the second five
projection years, the kindergarten assumptions affect the middle school projections but in the first five
years only the current grade size and the migration assumptions are affecting the size of the middle
school grades.
Resident high school enrollment is projected to decrease 162 to 199 students in the first five
projection years. In the second five projection years, resident high school enrollment increases but
remains below its current level. The high school projections are almost totally a result of the migration
assumptions. The kindergarten assumptions have only a small effect on the high school projections.
In 2032-33, the 2022-23 kindergarten class will be in Grade 10, which means that all the grades below
Grade 10 are products of the projection assumptions.
The cohort survival projections show resident enrollment decreasing with the amount of decline
varying modestly, that is, by 109 resident students in ten years. Except for the high school grades,
resident enrollment is flat.
Housing Unit Method
The housing unit method provides another way of projecting population and school enrollment.
While the number of dwelling units (housing units) is related to the number of school age children,
dwelling units alone do not determine the number of school age children. The number of school age
children per unit is also a key variable in the projection equation.
The main reason to use the housing unit method is to understand the effect of additional
housing units on enrollment. It could be said that housing stock is like DNA. It influences the size and
characteristics of the resident school age population.
After dwelling unit type, year built and market value emerge as the most important housing
characteristics. Year built reflects how families lived in that era and is a proxy for square feet and
20
characteristics such as number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms and number of garage spaces. The
presence of a master suite, walk-in closets, etc., can also be inferred from year built. Value implies some
of these same characteristics plus lot size, location, and interior amenities such as kitchen and bathroom
appointments and finishes.
The relationship between housing unit characteristics and enrollment has been established by
findings based on school districts in four states (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Colorado). These
findings are in italics.
• Dwelling unit type affects the school age child per unit yield. Single-family detached units
have the highest school age child per unit yield. Single-family attached, such as townhouses,
have significantly fewer children per unit than single-family detached units, while apartment
units have even fewer school age children per unit, although there are some local exceptions.
• Newer single-family detached units yield more students per unit than older single-family
detached units.
• As single-family detached units sell (turnover), student yield usually increases in the newer
units. In older units, yield is likely to decrease.
• The market value of single-family detached units affects the school age child per unit yield.
Moderately priced to higher priced units yield more school age children than the lowest
priced units.
• As the population ages, more dwelling units are being built for mature adults (55+ years) and
for seniors. These units will have zero school age children per unit.
Analyzing housing unit change is valuable, especially the increase in single-family detached
housing units. Housing stock is like DNA. It influences the size and characteristics of the resident school
age population. This makes projecting enrollment from housing units seem simple; however, the
limitations of the housing unit method as an enrollment projection method must be kept in mind. While
this method can highlight the number of students in new housing units, these students do not
automatically translate into additional students. No housing unit method is sensitive to changes in
births or to the difference in grade sizes as they age out of school. Further, the per unit student yields
remain at today's level throughout the projection period, making the assumptions static. Overall, the
housing unit method usually over projects enrollment.
As new housing units are built is important to remember that the K-12 yield for single-family
detached units varies by school district and by attendance area within school districts. However, the
yield of 0.22 students per townhome is very consistent across all school districts across states. Multi-
family units (apartments) have a typical yield of 0.11 to a maximum yield of 0.15, which is consistent
across all school districts across states. Condominiums yield almost no school age children per unit (0.02
to 0.05).
21
CHAPTER 2
RESIDENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS
Projecting resident K-5 enrollment by individual school is fraught with potential errors because
the enrollment at any one school is small, which magnifies annual fluctuations in kindergarten size and
in net migration. For this reason, along with the brief time that existing students are part of the K-5
student body, projections for individual schools will be made for five years rather than ten years. This
chapter focuses on the Edina Public Schools’ six elementary schools. Normandale, a French immersion
school, is a district-wide school with no attendance area and Countryside now houses the district’s Dual
Spanish Immersion program, which is district-wide as well.
Past Trends
RESIDENT ENROLLMENT
GRADES K-5
School 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Concord 625 632 640 600 579 558
Cornelia 506 500 478 450 439 453
Countryside 459 458 426 389 407 431
Creek Valley 489 500 492 458 454 505
Highlands 527 505 488 433 423 437
Normandale 622 619 620 628 642 636
Edina Virtual Pathway 67 16
Total 3,228 3,214 3,144 2,958 3,011 3,036
Enrollment by year reflects boundaries in effect that year
Resident K-5 enrollment is 192 students or -5.9 percent lower in 2022-23 than in 2017-18. Only
Creek Valley and Normandale saw their enrollments increase during this period.
RESIDENT KINDERGARTEN
School 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Concord 107 109 95 95 85 79
Cornelia 85 78 71 69 70 58
Countryside 67 65 72 59 67 105
Creek Valley 67 74 74 65 64 90
Highlands 89 71 80 59 61 68
Normandale 108 108 108 122 127 104
Edina Virtual Pathway 4 0
Total 523 505 500 469 478 504
The previous table shows a five-year history of resident kindergarten enrollment. The 2022-23,
resident kindergarten is 19 students less than the 2017-18 resident kindergarten. During this time,
22
Countryside and Creek Valley saw kindergarten increases, while Concord, Cornelia and Highlands had
large decreases. Normandale’s kindergarten size was flat, except for 2020-21 and 2021-22.
Since 2017-18, except for the Pandemic year, district-wide, resident K-5 net migration was
positive every year. Post Pandemic net in migration was larger than in the two pre-Pandemic years.
Concord does not appear to have recovered from the Pandemic losses and neither has Normandale.
RESIDENT NET MIGRATION
GRADES K-5
School
2017-18 to
2018-19
2018-19 to
2019-20
2019-20 to
2020-21
2020-21 to
2021-22
2021-22 to
2022-23
Concord 2 14 -31 -15 5
Cornelia -7 -8 -4 -10 32
Countryside 12 1 -18 12 2
Creek Valley 24 19 -11 23 44
Highlands -12 -4 -24 -3 27
Normandale -9 -3 -17 -18 -15
Edina Virtual Pathway 63 -40
Total 10 19 -105 52 55
Resident K-5 Projections
Individual Elementary Schools
Individual school projections will be made using the cohort survival method. The advantage of
this method is that it begins with the aging of the student population. Therefore, any differences in
grade size are reflected in the projections when these classes leave elementary school. Further, this
method is sensitive to the number of births in the immediate past.
Kindergarten
Kindergarten projections by school will be based on the district-wide high kindergarten
projections because in five years the difference between the low and high kindergarten projections is
only 3 students.
RESIDENT KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS
Year Low High
2023-24 489 492
2024-25 479 482
2025-26 461 464
2026-27 467 470
2027-28 473 476
23
The next table shows that some school’s kindergarten shares fluctuated more than the shares of
other schools. Countryside’s kindergarten share increase results from the addition of two sections of a
Dual Spanish Immersion program, a new offering which will ramp up to Grade 5 at Countryside by 2027-
28. Creek Valley, which saw a large share increase in 2022-23, is expected to return to its historical
shares. After analyzing several possibilities, the resident shares for Countryside and Normandale were
projected to be the same as in the past year. The other four schools were adjusted to better reflect past
shares.
PERCENT OF RESIDENT KINDERGARTEN AT EACH SCHOOL
School 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Projection
Concord 20.5 21.6 19.0 20.3 17.8 15.7 17.5
Cornelia 16.2 15.4 14.2 14.7 14.6 11.5 14.1
Countryside 12.8 12.9 14.4 12.6 14.0 20.8 20.8
Creek Valley 12.8 14.6 14.8 13.8 13.4 17.9 14.0
Highlands 17.0 14.1 16.0 12.6 12.8 13.5 13.0
Normandale 20.7 21.4 21.6 26.0 26.6 20.6 20.6
Edina V P 0.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
The kindergarten projections show less annual fluctuation than the historical data. Because
there is no way to project annual fluctuations, a smooth trend is a reasonable option. However, less
projected volatility in kindergarten size may under project or over project enrollment at some schools.
RESIDENT KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS BY SCHOOL
School 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28
Concord 79 86 84 81 82 83
Cornelia 58 69 68 65 66 67
Countryside 105 102 100 97 98 99
Creek Valley 90 69 67 65 66 67
Highlands 68 64 63 60 61 62
Normandale 104 102 100 96 97 98
Total 504 492 482 464 470 476
Migration
Migration rates (survival rates) by school are based on the average of the past four years
omitting the Pandemic year, which is the same assumption used in the district-wide high migration
assumption. By averaging the survival rates, some of the year-to-year fluctuations are removed. Only
one grade transition rate had to be modified for Creek Valley due to an anomaly (outlier).
24
SURVIVAL RATES USED IN THE RESIDENT PROJECTIONS
School K to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5
Concord 1.033 1.013 1.002 0.972 1.000
Cornelia 1.041 1.030 0.951 1.035 1.036
Countryside 1.023 1.024 0.978 0.996 1.056
Creek Valley 1.147 1.090 1.027 1.047 1.086
Highlands 1.078 1.027 1.035 0.962 1.010
Normandale 0.967 0.997 0.981 0.970 0.980
Projection Results
The 2022-23 kindergarten will be in Grade 5 in 2027-28. Therefore, enrollment in the last
projection year is largely derived from the assumptions. This means that individual school projections
are heavily influenced by the kindergarten size every year. A summary of the cohort survival projections
by school is shown in the next table and annual projections are in the following table. (Background data
are in the Appendix)
The sum of the individual schools’ resident kindergarten classes equals the district-wide high
resident kindergarten projection. Other grades, however, were not controlled to the district-wide total
for those grades. The kindergarten and migration assumptions are smoothed trend lines seeking to
approximate five years in the future, which means that any single year may differ from the projections.
In some years, enrollment may be higher than the projections while in other years it may be lower.
COHORT SURVIVAL METHOD PROJECTIONS BY SCHOOL
RESIDENT K-5
School
2022-23
2027-28
Change
# %
Concord 558 509 -49 -8.8%
Cornelia 453 411 -42 -9.3%
Countryside 431 621 190 44.1%
Creek Valley 505 534 29 5.7%
Highlands 437 413 -24 -5.5%
Normandale 636 566 -70 -11.0%
Edina Virtual Pathways 16 0 -16
Sum 3,036 3,054 18 0.6%
District-wide 3,036 3,050 14 0.5%
Resident K-5 enrollment increases by 14 students or 0.5 percent in five years compared to a loss
of 192 students in the past five years. The largest enrollment increase is at Countryside (190 students or
44.1 percent) results from the Dual Spanish Immersion program, while Creek Valley increases by 29
students or 5.7 percent. The four other elementary schools show a decrease in resident students. The
projected decrease results from larger grades aging out and being replaced by kindergarten classes that
are smaller. Normandale’s loss stems from the large 2022-23 Grade 1 and Grade 2 aging out.
25
COHORT SURVIVAL METHOD PROJECTIONS BY SCHOOL BY YEAR
RESIDENT K-5
HIGH KINDERGARTEN/HIGH MIGRATION
School 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28
Concord 558 546 531 518 513 509
Cornelia 453 444 439 430 419 411
Countryside 431 470 512 543 582 621
Creek Valley 505 525 535 540 527 534
Highlands 437 431 428 416 420 413
Normandale 636 631 623 612 593 566
Edina Virtual Pathways 16
Sum 3,036 3,047 3,068 3,059 3,054 3,054
District-wide 3,036 3,063 3,075 3,063 3,058 3,050
Difference 0 -16 -7 -4 -4 4
Comparing the sum of the independently made individual school projections to the district-wide
high kindergarten/high migration projection shows the individual school projections are a good fit with
the independently made district-wide projections. The sum of the individual schools is only 4 students
higher than the high kindergarten/high migration projection in 2027-28. The largest difference between
the sum and the district-wide total occurs in 2023-24. Although the fit of the individual school
projection to the district total is extremely good, future enrollment at individual elementary schools may
differ from the projected enrollment for those schools for a couple of reasons. Resident kindergarten
may be different and migration (survival) rates may change.
26
CHAPTER 3
NONRESIDENT ENROLLMENT
Nonresident enrollment increased by 664 students or 53.4 percent in the past ten years. Over
the past ten years, the proportion of nonresidents by elementary, middle, and high school students has
remained remarkedly consistent.
NONRESIDENT ENROLLMENT
Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
K 78 55 81 91 81 51 63 78 123 128 95
1 90 82 61 88 94 75 58 70 96 134 137
2 59 93 88 64 86 92 73 69 93 117 131
3 84 64 99 90 66 80 102 84 87 104 129
4 61 87 67 105 98 73 93 112 98 104 112
5 85 69 94 76 100 102 75 102 126 117 123
6 101 99 84 102 87 131 118 116 144 156 136
7 105 115 109 85 103 103 141 118 141 160 166
8 113 106 112 108 88 111 113 138 127 158 157
9 96 126 116 107 97 91 119 149 166 179 191
10 120 114 145 114 109 110 108 123 158 166 178
11 109 134 123 131 121 117 116 110 136 175 175
12 142 117 143 105 149 123 126 122 110 141 177
Total 1,243 1,261 1,322 1,266 1,279 1,259 1,305 1,391 1,605 1,839 1,907
Source: Edina Public Schools, Fall Enrollment. Excludes Early Childhood
NONRESIDENT ENROLLMENT
Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
K-5 457 450 490 514 525 473 464 515 623 704 727
6-8 319 320 305 295 278 345 372 372 412 474 459
9-12 467 491 527 457 476 441 469 504 570 661 721
Total 1,243 1,261 1,322 1,266 1,279 1,259 1,305 1,391 1,605 1,839 1,907
PERCENT BY GRADE LEVEL
2012-23 2022-23
Elementary School Grades 36.7% 38.1%
Middle School Grades 25.7% 24.1%
High School Grades 37.6% 37.8%
The district of residence for nonresident students is best illustrated by the open enrollment data
reported on the Minnesota Department of Education website. The totals differ slightly from those
reported by the district as shown on page 6.
27
In 2012-13 and 2022-23 the same six districts account for 91 percent and 89.9 percent of
nonresident students respectively. These districts are Minneapolis, Richfield, Hopkins, Bloomington, St.
Louis Park, and Eden Prairie, all adjacent to the Edina School District. In both years 96 percent of all
nonresidents come from districts with ten or more nonresidents attending the Edina Public Schools.
Some nonresident students from the Hopkins and Richfield School Districts may reside in the City of
Edina.
OPEN ENROLLMENT IN
District of Residence Number
2012-13 2022-23
Minneapolis 464 825
Richfield 169 292
Hopkins 248 224
Bloomington 83 169
St. Louis Park 93 125
Eden Prairie 62 84
Burnsville-Eagan-Savage 10 40
Robbinsdale 16 39
Shakopee 15 23
Minnetonka 9 15
St. Paul 11 9
Lakeville 4 7
Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan 5 7
Wayzata 1 7
Brooklyn Center 5 5
Eastern Carver County 4 5
Fridley 5
Osseo 10 5
Prior Lake-Savage 7 5
Columbia Heights 4
West St. Paul-Mendota Hts-Eagan 5 3
Anoka-Hennepin 1 2
Buffalo-Hanover-Montrose 2
Mounds View 1 2
Jordan 2
Owatonna 2
Blackduck 1
Watertown-Mayer 1
Westonka 1
Rochester 1
Sartell-St. Stephen 1
Total 1,230 1,913
Nonresidents in 2012-13 from districts with no students in 2022-23 are not shown
Source: Minnesota Department of Education
28
The number of Edina School District residents attending a public school in another district is
extremely small. In 2012-13, these students numbered but 75. In 2022-23, the district reported 349
students open enrolling out, however, the Minnesota Department of Education shows only 151
students. The difference is in how students enrolled in Intermediate District #287 are counted.
Beginning in 2019-20, the district shows them as opened enrolled. The State Department of Education
does not count these students as open enrolled.
OPEN ENROLLMENT OUT
District Attending Number
2012-13 2022-23
Minnetonka 9 51
Richfield 11 26
Bloomington 8 16
Minneapolis 14 15
Hopkins 11 14
Eden Prairie 6 8
St. Louis Park 7 5
Houston 2 3
Saint Paul 3
Orono 2
Prior Lake-Savage 2
Robbinsdale 1 2
Eastern Carver County 1
Burnsville-Eagan-Savage 1
Lakeville 1
Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan 2 1
Total 75 151
Districts receiving Edina residents in 2012-13 but not in 2022-23 are not shown
Source: Minnesota Department of Education
In 2012-23, only three districts had 10 or more students who were Edina School District
residents. These three districts adjacent accounted for 48 percent of the open enrollment out. In 2022-
23, five districts had 10 or more students who were Edina School District residents and these districts
accounted for 66.9 percent of open enrollment out.
29
APPENDIX A
EDINA PUBLIC SCHOOLS
CONCORD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT HISTORY
Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
K 107 109 95 95 85 79
1 112 99 112 92 96 90
2 102 115 107 110 93 91
3 96 104 119 107 101 98
4 104 104 103 105 99 101
5 104 101 104 91 105 99
Total 625 632 640 600 579 558
NET MIGRATION
Grade
Progression
2017-18 to
2018-19
2018-19 to
2019-20
2019-20 to
2020-21
2020-21 to
2021-22
2021-22 to
2022-23
K to 1 -8 3 -3 1 5
1 to 2 3 8 -2 1 -5
2 to 3 2 4 0 -9 5
3 to 4 8 -1 -14 -8 0
4 to 5 -3 0 -12 0 0
Total 2 14 -31 -15 5
SURVIVAL RATES
Grade
Progression
2017-18 to
2018-19
2018-19 to
2019-20
2019-20 to
2020-21
2020-21 to
2021-22
2021-22 to
2022-23
K to 1 0.925 1.028 0.968 1.011 1.059
1 to 2 1.027 1.081 0.982 1.011 0.948
2 to 3 1.020 1.035 1.000 0.918 1.054
3 to 4 1.083 0.990 0.882 0.925 1.000
4 to 5 0.971 1.000 0.883 1.000 1.000
30
EDINA PUBLIC SCHOOLS
CORNELIA ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT HISTORY
Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
K 85 78 71 69 70 58
1 98 86 82 80 67 77
2 70 97 78 73 78 81
3 85 65 84 75 74 76
4 91 89 70 82 74 77
5 77 85 93 71 76 84
Total 506 500 478 450 439 453
NET MIGRATION
Grade
Progression
2017-18 to
2018-19
2018-19 to
2019-20
2019-20 to
2020-21
2020-21 to
2021-22
2021-22 to
2022-23
K to 1 1 4 9 -2 7
1 to 2 -1 -8 -9 -2 14
2 to 3 -5 -13 -3 1 -2
3 to 4 4 5 -2 -1 3
4 to 5 -6 4 -1 -6 10
Total -7 -8 -4 -10 32
SURVIVAL RATES
Grade
Progression
2017-18 to
2018-19
2018-19 to
2019-20
2019-20 to
2020-21
2020-21 to
2021-22
2021-22 to
2022-23
K to 1 1.012 1.051 1.127 0.971 1.100
1 to 2 0.990 0.907 0.890 0.975 1.209
2 to 3 0.929 0.866 0.962 1.014 0.974
3 to 4 1.047 1.077 0.976 0.987 1.041
4 to 5 0.934 1.045 1.014 0.927 1.135
31
EDINA PUBLIC SCHOOLS
COUNTRYSIDE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT HISTORY
Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
K 67 65 72 59 67 105
1 83 69 67 68 63 65
2 58 79 71 59 71 63
3 73 63 77 65 59 68
4 100 77 61 77 64 61
5 78 105 78 61 83 69
Total 459 458 426 389 407 431
NET MIGRATION
Grade
Progression
2017-18 to
2018-19
2018-19 to
2019-20
2019-20 to
2020-21
2020-21 to
2021-22
2021-22 to
2022-23
K to 1 2 2 -4 4 -2
1 to 2 -4 2 -8 3 0
2 to 3 5 -2 -6 0 -3
3 to 4 4 -2 0 -1 2
4 to 5 5 1 0 6 5
Total 12 1 -18 12 2
SURVIVAL RATES
Grade
Progression
2017-18 to
2018-19
2018-19 to
2019-20
2019-20 to
2020-21
2020-21 to
2021-22
2021-22 to
2022-23
K to 1 1.030 1.031 0.944 1.068 0.970
1 to 2 0.952 1.029 0.881 1.044 1.000
2 to 3 1.086 0.975 0.915 1.000 0.958
3 to 4 1.055 0.968 1.000 0.985 1.034
4 to 5 1.050 1.013 1.000 1.078 1.078
32
EDINA PUBLIC SCHOOLS
CREEK VALLEY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT HISTORY
Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
K 67 74 74 65 64 90
1 74 75 79 73 80 73
2 89 76 78 78 76 95
3 75 95 80 73 75 81
4 97 79 93 78 76 84
5 87 101 88 91 83 82
Total 489 500 492 458 454 505
NET MIGRATION
Grade
Progression
2017-18 to
2018-19
2018-19 to
2019-20
2019-20 to
2020-21
2020-21 to
2021-22
2021-22 to
2022-23
K to 1 8 5 -1 15 9
1 to 2 2 3 -1 3 15
2 to 3 6 4 -5 -3 5
3 to 4 4 -2 -2 3 9
4 to 5 4 9 -2 5 6
Total 24 19 -11 23 44
SURVIVAL RATES
Grade
Progression
2017-18 to
2018-19
2018-19 to
2019-20
2019-20 to
2020-21
2020-21 to
2021-22
2021-22 to
2022-23
K to 1 1.119 1.068 0.986 1.231 1.141
1 to 2 1.027 1.040 0.987 1.041 1.188
2 to 3 1.067 1.053 0.936 0.962 1.066
3 to 4 1.053 0.979 0.975 1.041 1.120
4 to 5 1.041 1.114 0.978 1.064 1.079
33
EDINA PUBLIC SCHOOLS
HIGHLANDS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT HISTORY
Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
K 89 71 80 59 61 68
1 82 88 75 77 57 74
2 78 83 86 70 77 63
3 98 79 84 79 72 82
4 99 91 73 80 75 73
5 81 93 90 68 81 77
Total 527 505 488 433 423 437
NET MIGRATION
Grade
Progression
2017-18 to
2018-19
2018-19 to
2019-20
2019-20 to
2020-21
2020-21 to
2021-22
2021-22 to
2022-23
K to 1 -1 4 -3 -2 13
1 to 2 1 -2 -5 0 6
2 to 3 1 1 -7 2 5
3 to 4 -7 -6 -4 -4 1
4 to 5 -6 -1 -5 1 2
Total -12 -4 -24 -3 27
SURVIVAL RATES
Grade
Progression
2017-18 to
2018-19
2018-19 to
2019-20
2019-20 to
2020-21
2020-21 to
2021-22
2021-22 to
2022-23
K to 1 0.989 1.056 0.963 0.966 1.213
1 to 2 1.012 0.977 0.933 1.000 1.105
2 to 3 1.013 1.012 0.919 1.029 1.065
3 to 4 0.929 0.924 0.952 0.949 1.014
4 to 5 0.939 0.989 0.932 1.013 1.027
34
EDINA PUBLIC SCHOOLS
NORMANDALE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT HISTORY
Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
K 108 108 108 122 127 104
1 104 108 108 105 113 124
2 100 101 107 104 105 113
3 101 101 101 104 103 100
4 107 97 99 98 99 99
5 102 104 97 95 95 96
Total 622 619 620 628 642 636
NET MIGRATION
Grade
Progression
2017-18 to
2018-19
2018-19 to
2019-20
2019-20 to
2020-21
2020-21 to
2021-22
2021-22 to
2022-23
K to 1 0 0 -3 -9 -3
1 to 2 -3 -1 -4 0 0
2 to 3 1 0 -3 -1 -5
3 to 4 -4 -2 -3 -5 -4
4 to 5 -3 0 -4 -3 -3
Total -9 -3 -17 -18 -15
SURVIVAL RATES
Grade
Progression
2017-18 to
2018-19
2018-19 to
2019-20
2019-20 to
2020-21
2020-21 to
2021-22
2021-22 to
2022-23
K to 1 1.000 1.000 0.972 0.926 0.976
1 to 2 0.971 0.991 0.963 1.000 1.000
2 to 3 1.010 1.000 0.972 0.990 0.952
3 to 4 0.960 0.980 0.970 0.952 0.961
4 to 5 0.972 1.000 0.960 0.969 0.970