Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutGHG Inventory, Baseline Inventory Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory April 2021 Revised April 30, 2021 Prepared by: Table of Contents Section 01 Introduction Section 02 Findings In Brief Section 03 Community Comparison Section 04 GHG Emissions Forecast Appendix 1 GHG Inventory Calculation Summary Spreadsheets Appendix 2 GHG Forecast Assumptions Cover photo by edkohler via Flickr Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1-1 Photo: Delius98 via Flickr Background The City of Edina is developing its first Climate Action Plan for the community. The plan will help those who live and work in Edina imagine and achieve a future where the earth and all who live on it thrive. The City’s current goals for the project are to reduce citywide greenhouse gas emissions 30% by 2025, and 80% by 2050, and to establish actions to enhance community resilience and adap- tation to climate change. This Community Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory is a founda- tional document to support the Climate Action Planning process by reviewing the City’s energy consumption and GHG emissions trends since 2013. Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion. W. Edwards Deming, Engineer, Professor, and Management Consultant Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1-2 Introduction The Value of Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventories The goal of the City of Edina community wide and municipal opera- tions inventory is to estimate the GHG emissions associated with the activities of the people who live, work, learn, travel, visit, and recreate within the City’s geographical boundaries during three study years, 2013, 2016 and 2019. These inventories must be transparent and able to be replicated, updated, and compared with future assessments for Edina and assessments for peer cities. Measuring the energy aspects of human activities and the associated GHG emissions offers a unique way to compare the effectiveness of various energy and sustainability best management practices. Green- house gas emissions and energy1 serve as common denominators for the comparison of kilowatts of electricity, natural gas therms, tons of coal, and gallons of liquid fuels consumed; as well as vehicle miles trav- eled, tons of waste processed, and gallons of potable water distribut- ed. Every community prepares annual operating and capital improvement budgets. These assessments can be thought of as an assessment of the environmental budget for municipal operations. Recording these per- formance metrics is essential to promoting efficiency and sustainable change. 1 Energy is expressed as kBtu (a thousand British thermal units) or MMBtu (a million Btus). 1-3 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory Introduction The Carbon Cycle and the Role of Greenhouse Gases The Carbon Cycle is exchanged among the oceans, atmosphere, and ecosystem. This cycle has been a closed, balanced system for hun- dreds of thousands of years. This cycle is present in the atmosphere primarily as carbon dioxide and methane. These two primary green- house gases uniquely allow light to pass while capturing infrared ener- gy. This “Greenhouse Effect” directly impacts Earth’s atmospheric en- ergy and temperatures – without the historic levels of greenhouse gas- es present in the atmosphere, the average surface temperature of the Earth would be 0 degrees Fahrenheit. Graphic Representations Greenhouse Gas Inventories quantify gas emissions in terms of weight - typically Metric Tons. It is important to understand that these refer- ences refer to gaseous pollution emissions which enter and occupy Earth’s atmosphere. To help facilitate an increased awareness of the order of magnitude our collective GHG emissions represent, some of the emissions data reported in this report are also graphically repre- sented in terms of volume of atmosphere. These volumes illustrate the amount of atmospheric space the referenced greenhouse gas emissions will occupy where they will remain, actively impacting our climate for as long as 200 years. 1-4 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory Introduction Greenhouse Gas Impact on Our Climate Our atmosphere is made up of both Non-Greenhouse and Greenhouse Gases gasses. Non-Greenhouse Gases do not react to visible light, nor infrared light. That means both sunlight and infrared energy pass through them un- affected, allowing Earth’s heat energy to radiate into space. Greenhouse Gases also do not react to visible light, however, they DO react to infrared energy, trapping Earth’s heat energy and reflecting it back, warming the Earth. Sunlight Earth’s Infrared Energy When sunlight strikes the Earth, it warms the surface and becomes heat energy – or infrared energy. This infrared energy then radiates back towards space. Introduction Methodology, Sources, and Terminology This GHG inventory is assembled based on the Greenhouse Gas Proto- col for businesses and communities established by GHG Protocol (www.ghgprotocol.org/) and is consistent with the protocol estab- lished by ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability. The terminology used in this report is consistent with international Carbon Footprinting protocols. Unless noted otherwise, the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emis- sions shown in this report are in metric tons of CO2e: Carbon Dioxide Equivalent. CO2e is a standard for expressing the impact of all green- house gas including those from other pollutants including methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and fluorinated gasses like Chlorofluorocar- bons (CFC) in terms of the equivalent amount of CO2 that would have the same impact. GHG inventories, generally, arrive at an estimated emission in each emissions sector by multiplying raw consumption data - total electrici- ty consumed as an example - by an emissions factor which define the greenhouse gasses emitted per unit of raw consumption. The chart to the right illustrates the sources used for all raw consumption and emis- sion factor data used in the GHG inventory calculations. GHG Emission Sector Project Resource Residential Energy Con- sumption - Electricity Data Source: Xcel Energy Emissions Factors: Same as above Residential Energy Con- sumption - Natural Gas Data Source: Centerpoint Energy Emissions Factors: US EPA Commercial/Institutional Energy Consumption - Elec- tricity Data Source: Xcel Energy Emissions Factors: Same as above Commercial/Institutional Energy Consumption - Natural Gas Data Source: Centerpoint Energy Emissions Factors: US EPA Transportation - On Road Data Source: State of Minnesota DOT Emissions Factors: US EPA MOVES model Waste - Solid Waste Data Source: City of Edina, State of Minnesota Emissions Factors: US EPA Warm Model, State of Min- nesota Waste Characterization Study Water and Wastewater Data Source: City of Edina, Metropolitan Council Emissions Factors: US Community Protocol population based emissions models / Fuel Mix Disclosure Report / US EPA eGRID What is a Greenhouse Gas Inventory? A community Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory follows a standard protocol to quantify a city’s green- house gas (GHG) emissions, includ- ing CO2, CH4, N2O. GHG inventories fluctuate year-to-year as we change our energy consumption, get access to better data, or gain new knowledge about how GHGs impact the atmosphere. What Are GHG’s? Greenhouse Gases (GHG) absorb radiation and trap heat in the Earth’s atmosphere. They are the basis of the Greenhouse Effect. The more GHGs there are, the more heat that is trapped in our atmos- phere, leading to Global Warming and Climate Change. GHGs meas- ured in this inventory include carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Why Measure GHG? As described by David Osborne and Ted Gaebler “If you don’t measure results, you can’t tell success from failure. If you can’t see success, you can’t reward it. If you can’t see fail- ure, you can’t correct it.” GHG in- ventories are useful. Planners need them, elected officials want them, and the future may see their devel- opment as a basic requirement of state and federal funding. What is CO2e? Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is a GHG emitted naturally and from fossil fuel combustion for energy and heat. Global warming contributions from other greenhouse gases are referred to in terms of “carbon diox- ide equivalent” or CO2e, which rep- resents the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warm- ing potential as other GHGs. Com- munity GHG inventories are tracked in terms of metric tons of CO2e. 1-5 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1-4 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory Greenhouse Gas Sectors Where do GHGs come from? Energy Emissions are produced from the combustion of natural gas, coal, and other fossil fuels primari- ly for heating, cooling, and electricity genera- tion. Transportation Emissions come from the combustion of fossil fuels for ground transportation and air travel. Solid Waste Emissions in the inventory estimate the decomposition of biodegradable waste (e.g., food and yard waste) in the landfill. Water + Wastewater Emissions from energy uses are calculated for the collec- tion and treatment of wastewater. 2-1 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory 02 S e c t i o n Findings in Brief Click here to return to TOC Edina GHG Emissions Overview Community wide total emissions for the City of Edina have decreased slightly (1.5%) from 727,384 metric tons in 2013 to 716,715 metric tons in 2019. 2013 By The Numbers 2019 By The Numbers 6 Year Trend Dashboard GHG Emissions GHG Emissions GHG Emissions 727,384 716,715 -10,669 -1.47% 14.97 MT Per-Capita 13.56 MT Per-Capita -1.42 MT Per-Capita 14.92 MT / Job 16.91 MT / Job +1.99 MT / Job 0.1617 MT / $1,000 GDP 0.1364 MT / $1,000 GDP -0.03 MT / $1,000 GDP Population Population Population 48,574 52,857 +4,283 +8.82% GDP GDP GDP $4,499,007,932 $5,253,794,747 +$754,786,815 +16.78% $92,622 GDP Per-Capita $99,396 GDP Per-Capita +$6,775 GDP Per-Capita Employment Employment Employment 48,747 42,386 -6,361 -13.05% 2-2 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory How Large Are Community wide GHG Emissions? The community’s total emissions for 2019 are equal to 14.1 Billion cubic feet of man-made greenhouse gas. This volume of atmosphere is equal to a cube 2,400 feet on each face viewed here from over 2 1/2 miles away. Think Economic Development is Tied To Increased Emissions? Think again! Between 2013 and 2019 the City was able to decrease it’s GHG emissions by 1.5% while growing it’s economy by 16.8% (pro rata share of County reporting). Change in Change in Total GHG Emissions 716,715 Metric Tons 2-3 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory Since 2013, electricity con- sumption has decreased nearly 11% due largely to reductions in commercial (- 17.9%) and industrial (- 11.1%) use. Emissions asso- ciated with electricity, how- ever, have fallen 26% due to increased decarbonization of the electricity provided to Edina by Xcel Energy. Unfortunately, natural gas consumption and emissions have increased 12.8%. Since 2013, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increased by 13.4% per household— almost twice the Statewide increase. VMT per capita in Edina is 102% of the State of Minnesota per capita aver- age. Air transportation emissions are not included in this in- ventory. Total solid waste handled per household in Edina have increased 26.3% since 2013. Over the same period, total emissions have increased 19.9%. Emissions increases would have been much high- er, however, increases in recycling and organics collec- tions have helped to de- crease per-ton solid waste emissions in the community. Per-household wastewater flows have decreased a little over 1% since 2013, howev- er, emissions associated with wastewater treatment are estimated to have increased 4.9% due to waste water process energy consump- tion. Water consumption has decreased almost 19% during the same time period. Combined, this sector has decreased emissions 1.8%. Energy 56.1% 402,150 MT Electricity 26.6% Heating Fuel 29.5% Change Since 2013: 2019 Edina Community Wide GHG Emissions by Sector Transportation 40.9% 46,859 MT Ground 40.9% Airport Not Included Change Since 2013: +12.8% Ground Transportation: +12.8% Change in GHG +13.4% VMT Change Per Household Solid Waste 1.7% 12,047 MT Change Since 2013: Water + Wastewater 0.5% 446 MT Change Since 2013: -9.7% Residential: -3.6% Change in GHG +0.7% Electrical Consumption -1.5% Per Household +17.8% NG Consumption +15.2% Per Household Commercial: -5.2% Change in GHG -10.5% Electrical Consumption +4.1% Per Job +3.8% NG Consumption +20.7% Per Job Industrial: -21.3% Change in GHG +0.7% Electrical Consumption -5.1% Per Job +19.9% Solid Waste: +19.9% Change in GHG +26.3% Solid Waste Handled +23.5% Per Household +14.0% Landfill Tons +11.5% Per Household +54.3% Recycled Tons +50.9% Per Household +216.4% Organics/Yard Waste +209.4% Per Household +1.8% Wastewater: +4.9% Change in GHG -1.1% Wastewater Flows -1.1% Gallons Per Household Water -14.8% Change in GHG -18.9% Water Flows -20.7% Gallons Per Household -14.8% Process Electricity 2-4 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2019 Edina Municipal Opera- tions GHG Emissions by Sector Buildings + Streetlights 66.4% 7,837 MT Electricity 43.1% Heating Fuel 23.3% Change Since 2013: -11.3% Buildings -11.3% Change in GHG -5.6% Electricity (kWh) +19.9% Heating Fuel (BTU) Municipal Operations 11,809 Metric Tons Fleet 10.3% 1,214 MT Change Since 2013: -8.6% Ground Transportation: -8.62% Change in GHG -7.1% Fuel Consumption Solid Waste 1.4% 10 MT Change Since 2013: +172% Solid Waste: +187% Solid Waste Handled +159% Landfill Tons +251% Recycled Tons +620% Organics/Yard Waste -4.1% Water + Wastewater: -3.3% Change in GHG -18.9% Water Flows -4.2% Process Electricity -4.4% Process Fuels Water + Wastewater 22.2% 2,618 MT Change Since 2013: Since 2013, the City’s operations GHG emissions have decreased over 11% for Buildings and Street- lights, 8.6% for Ground Transportation / fleets, and over 4% for Water and Wastewater. Estimated emissions for the City’s solid waste, however, have increased 172% in the same timeframe. As illustrated in the diagram to the left, the total Municipal Operations emissions account for ap- proximately 1.6% of Community Wide emissions for 2019. Community Wide Emissions Municipal Operations Emissions 3-1 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory 03 S e c t i o n Community Comparison Click here to return to TOC Community Comparison The results of community GHG inventories vary somewhat due to the information collected and variations in inventory methodology. Consequently, a direct community-to-community compari- son should not be viewed as a comprehensive comparison of Greenhouse Gas emission efficien- cies. We believe, however, that as an emerging practice, municipalities should look towards build- ing and sharing data in order to develop a stronger understanding of where each municipality can advance efficiencies and meet Greenhouse Gas reduction goals. In support of this goal, comparing total community emissions between communities can only be effectively done by adjusting for differences in overall community population. To make this adjustment, community GHG emissions are regularly compared based on a per-capita basis. Understanding Edina’s Per-Capita Community Wide Emissions As outlined in Section 2, the City of Edina’s 2019 community wide emissions totaled 716,715 met- ric tons, for a per capita average of 13.6 metric tons (MT). Of course, this number represents only an average. The actual emissions each individual resident may be responsible for generating can vary significantly based on a range of personal choices in energy and resource consumption and waste. How Large Are Community Wide Per-Capita GHG Emissions? The City of Edina’s community wide emissions per-capita for 2019 are equal to 267,177 cubic feet of man-made greenhouse gas. This volume of atmosphere is equal to a cube 6’ feet on each face. 3-2 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory Community Comparison 4-1 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory 04 S e c t i o n GHG Emissions Forecast Click here to return to TOC GHG Emissions Forecast Why Create a GHG Emission Forecast? Increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and consequently, atmospheric concentrations, will have many effects on our global, regional, and local climate conditions. Future changes are expected to include a warmer atmosphere, a warmer and more acidic ocean, more power- ful storms, broader swings in weather variability, and changes in pre- cipitation patterns. The extent of future climate change depends our on-going GHG emissions. The more we emit, the broader our future climate changes will be. Put another way, the extent of climate change we experience in the future depends on the policies our com- munities put into place and the actions we as individuals take to re- duce greenhouse gas emissions. A GHG emission forecast supports GHG reduction planning efforts by anticipating what emissions may be like if actions are not taken. The potential future trends illustrated in the forecast supports planners in identifying emission sectors which may benefit from prioritization or which may harbor the greatest potential benefits for reduction strat- egies. Finally, the completed GHG emission forecast, combined with the underlying assumptions used to create the forecast model, can be used as a GHG reduction projection tool during future climate ac- tion planning efforts. 4-2 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory GHG Emissions Forecast Business-As-Usual Forecast Emissions are typically forecast under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenar- io. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines a “business-as-usual” baseline case as the level of emissions that would result if future development trends follow those of the past and no changes in policies take place. A BAU forecast assumes that no emission -reduction actions will be undertaken beyond those already in place, or committed to, in the base year. The BAU forecast bases future projec- tions on anticipated demographic changes, such as population changes and projected jobs within a community. This approach allows for analysis of a community’s full emissions growth potential before identifying emissions reduction strategies. As noted above, BAU emission forecasts are critical in providing insight into the scale of reductions necessary to achieve an emissions target before con- sidering reductions likely to result from federal and statewide actions (e.g., vehicle efficiency standards), inherent technological advance- ments (e.g., energy-efficient appliances, lighting technology), or new local voluntary or mandatory conservation efforts (e.g., green building requirements). Please see the appendix for a review of all assumptions which have guided this BAU emission forecast for the City of Edina. Uncertainty GHG emissions forecasts are not predictions of what will happen, but rather modeled projections of what may happen given certain assump- tions and methodologies. GHG forecasts in this report should be inter- preted with a clear understanding of the assumptions that inform them and the limitations inherent in any modeling effort, as articulated in the forecast assumptions provided. The results of the forecast should be understood to contain uncertainty. Changes in industry structure over time, the particular impacts of policies, changing weather and economic conditions all add variability to how future emissions will develop. 4-3 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory Goal for limiting warming to 2° Current City of Edina GHG reduction goal Goal for limiting warming to 1.5° GHG Emissions Forecast Business-As-Usual Forecast 4-4 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory GHG Emissions Forecast Business-As-Usual Forecast Summary Change from 2010 Change from 2010 Change from 2010 2030 GHG Emissions -13.6% 2040 GHG Emissions -20.1% 2050 GHG Emissions -22.8% Total Annual GHG 628,297 Total Annual GHG 581,204 Total Annual GHG 561,744 Goal Annual GHG 503,267 Goal Annual GHG 330,269 Goal Annual GHG 157,271 Difference 125,030 Difference 250,935 Difference 404,473 Electricity Use Emissions: -60.1% Electricity Use Emissions: -76.6% Electricity Use Emissions: -100.0% Residential 37,976 Residential 23,655 Residential 0 Commercial 25,052 Commercial 16,423 Commercial 0 Industrial 39,422 Industrial 18,401 Industrial 0 Natural Gas Emissions: 45.9% Natural Gas Emissions: 54.1% Natural Gas Emissions: 76.1% Residential 140,085 Residential 149,555 Residential 177,632 Commercial/Indust. 133,707 Commercial/Indust, 139,641 Commercial/Indust. 152,821 Transportation Emissions: -13.5% Transportation Emissions: -22.0% Transportation Emissions: -25.6% VMT (Thousands) 649,228 VMT (Thousands) 717,775 VMT (Thousands) 778,801 Solid Waste Emissions: 46.4% Solid Waste Emissions: 59.0% Solid Waste Emissions: 71.4% LFG Emissions 14,716 LFG Emissions 15,979 LFG Emissions 17,224 Wastewater+Water : 24.3% Wastewater+Water : 35.0% Wastewater+Water : 43.7% Wastewater GHG 10,037 Wastewater GHG 10,899 Wastewater GHG 11,748 Water GHG 1,556 Water GHG 1,690 Water GHG 1,822 GHG Emissions Forecast Understanding Impacts of BAU Forecast Understanding what the BAU forecast means for Edina may be best achieved by placing emissions forecasts within a global perspective of climate change impacts. Global impacts can be viewed through under- standing difference between 1.5˚ C, 2˚ C, and 4.6˚ C degree global warm- ing. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nation Environment Porgramme (UNEP) body for assessing the science relat- ed to climate change and providing support in climate action policy making. The scientific consensus of the international IPCC working groups is to reduce global GHG emissions as needed in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C. In addition, the Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5 to 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, considered to be the threshold for dangerous climate change. The UNEP Emissions Gap Report published in November 2019 calcu- lates that by 2030, global emissions will need to be 25% lower than 2018, and then reaching 80% reductions by 2050 to put the world on the least-cost pathway to limiting global warming to below 2°C. To limit global warming to 1.5°C, the same report finds emissions would need to be 55% lower than in 2018 and then achieving 90% or greater reductions by 2050. The infographic to the left, created by the World Resources Institute summarizes some of the global climate change impact differences be- tween reducing global emissions to cap global warming at 1.5°C vs capping global warming to 2°C. We’ve added an illustration of the impacts related to a 3.8°C warming - which is where current Edina Business-as-Usual projections point. 3.8˚C / (6.84°F) 46%+ Annually 1m+ 16% 33% 28% 28%+ Unknown 10%+ Source and Graphic: World Resources Institute 4-5 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory A1-1 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory A1 S e c t i o n GHG Inventory Calculation Summary Sheets Click here to return to TOC Photo: Delius98 via Flickr A2-1 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory A2 S e c t i o n GHG Forecast Assumptions Click here to return to TOC GHG Emissions Forecast City of Edina GHG Forecast Assumptions: Demographics: Population: Total Population projections through 2050 are projected based on City’s 2040 Comprehensive Plan. Households: Total household counts through 2050 are projected based on City’s 2040 Comprehensive Plan. Jobs: Total commercial and industrial jobs through 2050 are projected based on City’s 2040 Comprehensive Plan. Climate Data Cooling Degree Days (CDD): Projected climate changes for the region will in- clude increased summer temperatures. The increase in temperatures will result in an increase, or variability, in air conditioning demand. The fore- cast calculates annual changes in air conditioning demand based on projec- tions provided by the “Climate Explorer” tool developed by US NOAA in support of the National Climate Assessment work. https://crt-climate- explorer.nemac.org/ Heating Degree Days (HDD): Projected climate changes for the region will in- clude increased winter temperatures. The increase in temperatures will result in a decrease, or variability, in building heating demand. The fore- cast calculates annual changes in heating demand based on projections provided by the “Climate Explorer” tool developed by US NOAA in support of the National Climate Assessment work. https://crt-climate- explorer.nemac.org/ Electricity: Residential: Demand is based on a per household basis and modified based on the projected Cooling Degree Days for each year, assuming 15% of electric- ity is used for cooling (RCP 8.5 model). 50% of projected increased electri- cal vehicle usage is attributed to residential EV charging. Commercial and Industrial: Demand is based on a per job basis and modified based on projected cooling degree days for each year, assuming that 15% of commercial and 7.5% of industrial electricity is used for cooling. (RCP 8.5 model). 50% of projected increased electrical vehicle usage is attributed to commercial EV charging. A2-2 Edina Greenhouse Gas Inventory GHG Emissions Forecast All electricity emission factors are calculated using estimated emissions factors for 2030, 2040, and 2050 based on current, known, supplier commitments. For electrical suppliers with unknown or unestablished emission commit- ments, and for electricity purchased from the SERC grid, electricity emission factors are calculated based on EPA forecasts (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/ R45453.pdf). Estimated emissions factors are reduced 5% by 2030, 10% by 2040, and 15% by 2050. Natural Gas: Residential: Demand is based on a per household basis and modified based on the projected Heating Degree Days for each year, assuming 75% of natural gas is used for heating (RCP 8.5 model). Commercial and Industrial: Demand is based on a per job basis and modified based on projected heating degree days for each year, assuming that 40% of commercial and 20% of industrial natural gas is used for heating (RCP 8.5 model). Natural Gas emissions factors are projected to be unchanged. Transportation: Vehicle Miles Traveled is based on US Department of Transportation VMT per capita projections through 2050 (1.1% annual growth rate through 2037 and 0.8% annual growth rate from 2038 through 2050. https://www.ffwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/tables/vmt/ vmt_forecast_sum.cfm Vehicle fuel use is calculated based on US Energy Information Agency projected rolling stock average fuel efficiency projections, modified to 85% projected MPG to account for heavy duty vehicle MPG share (based on US Department of Transportation data on current light duty to average all vehicle MPG rati- os) https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31332 Total vehicle stock is based on per household projections maintaining existing average number of vehicles per household. GHG Emissions Forecast Electric Vehicle Adoption: National projections expect an increased uptake of electric vehicles in coming years. The Edison Electric Institute has estimated that electric vehicle will be 7% of all vehicles on the road in the country by 2030. (http://www.ehcar.net/library/rapport/rapport233.pdf, https:// berla.co/average-us-vehicle-lifespan/). Solid Waste: Total Solid Waste handled is based on total number of households and maintaining existing volume per household and emissions factors per ton handled. Wastewater: Total Wastewater handled is based on total number of households and maintaining existing volume per household and emissions factors per household. Note: GHG emissions forecasts are not predictions of what will happen, but rather modeled projections of what may happen given certain assumptions and meth- odologies. GHG forecasts in this report should be interpreted with a clear under- standing of the assumptions that inform them and the limitations inherent in any modeling efhort Prepared by: 2515 White Bear Ave, A8 Suite 177 Maplewood, MN 55109 Contact: Ted Redmond tredmond@paleBLUEdot.llc