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HomeMy WebLinkAboutEdina Climate Action Baseline Assessment April 2021 Prepared by: City of Edina Climate Action Baseline Assessment and Strategic Goal Recommendations Table of Contents Section 01 Introduction Section 02 Transportation and Land Use Section 03 Buildings and Energy Section 04 Waste Management Section 05 Water and Wastewater Section 06 Local Food and Agriculture Section 07 Greenspace and Trees Section 08 Climate Health and Safety Section 09 Climate Economy Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals 1-1 Photo: Nick Ortloff via Flickr Introduction Background The City of Edina is developing its first Climate Action Plan for the community. The plan, which identifies climate resilience strategies and actions for the next 10 years, will help those who live and work in Edina imagine and achieve a future where the earth and all who live on it thrive. The City’s current goals for the project are to reduce citywide greenhouse gas emissions 30% by 2025, and 80% by 2050, and to establish actions to enhance community resilience and adap- tation to climate change. This Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals document is intended as a tool to support the Edina Climate Action Plan- ning team in collaboratively exploring, creating, refining, and finalizing the goals and strategies of the Edina Climate Action Plan. The strategic goal recommendations included in this docu- ment should be understood as preliminary only and created solely for the purpose of supporting a fully collaborative plan- ning team process. Climate Action Plan Framework Achieving community-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions and addressing the impacts of climate change requires address- ing considerations across a wide range of sectors. This Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goal Recommendations report is organized around a unifying framework of environmental equity and justice, and includes eight community-wide sectors. Each sector has over-arching Strategic Goals (or “Strategies”) estab- lished to meet 2030 goals and organize or provide direction for detailed implementation Actions to be created in collaboration with the Climate Action Planning Team. Sector Strategies have primary focus on Climate Mitigation, Climate Adaptation, or both. Strategies for Climate Mitigation are organized along cross-cutting pathways. Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals 1-2 The Edina Climate Action Plan will include the following commu- nity-wide sectors: : are specific statements of direction that expand on the climate action vision GHG reduction goals and guide de- cisions about future public policy, community investment, and actions. are detailed items that should be completed in order to carry out the vision and strategies identified in the plan. : addresses the root causes of climate change through the reduction or prevention of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. : seeks to lower the risks posed by the impacts of climate change which are now inevitable or likely. 1-3 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Introduction Cross-Cutting Pathways GHG reduction pathways are themes which organize the strategic goals, or “strategies” needed to achieve community wide greenhouse gas reductions. A cross-cutting pathway represents pathways orga- nized across multiple, or all, climate action sectors. The cross-cutting pathways for the Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goal Rec- ommendations report are: Reduction (Energy Efficiency, VMT, etc) Fuel Switching (Renewable Electricity, Thermal Energy, Transporta- tion) Sequestration (Greenspace, Mechanical Carbon Sequestration and Storage) GHG Reduction Goals in Global Context Considering a climate action plan’s emission reduction goals within a global context can help validate the appropriateness of the goal. An effective approach for evaluating goals within that global context is to consider the most current GHG emission reduction recommendations formulated by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The scientific consensus of the international IPCC working groups is to re- duce global GHG emissions as needed in order to limit global warming to 1.5°C. In addition, the Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5 to 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, considered to be the threshold for dangerous climate change. The UNEP Emissions Gap Report published in November 2019 calculates that by 2030, global emissions will need to be 25% lower than 2018 and 80% lower by 2050 to put the world on the least-cost pathway to lim- iting global warming to below 2°C. To limit global warming to 1.5°C, the same report finds emissions would need to be 55% lower than in 2018 and carbon neutral by 2050. Within that context, for Edina: A minimum community-wide reduction goal would be: “To reduce community-wide GHG emissions by 25% below 2018/2019 levels by 2030.” To limit global warming to 1.5°C, the community-wide reduction goal would be : “To reduce community-wide GHG emissions by 45% below 2018/2019 levels by 2030.” Hennepin County Climate Action Goals: “To reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by 2050.” State of Minnesota Next Generation Energy Act Goals: “Statewide GHG Reductions of 30% from 2005 lev- els by 2025, 80% from 2005 levels by 2050.” 1-4 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Introduction Projected Emission Reductions Achieved by Draft Strategies The following sections of this Baseline Assessment document include preliminary strategic goal recommendations for consideration by the planning team. These recommendations are based on the summary research presented in each section and are intended as preliminary statements for the purpose of supporting a collaborative team process which will result in the final strategic goal statements. These prelimi- nary strategical goals generally align with current City emission reduc- tion goals of 30% by 2025, and 80% by 2050. Share of Total Projected Potential Emission Reductions by Sector by 2030 from 2013 Baseline: The following summarizes the community wide GHG reductions from the 2013 baseline year by 2030 likely supported by the preliminary strategic rec- ommendations included in the report: Based on the illustrated potential reductions included in this document, we recommend the following as a preliminary Climate Action Plan goal statement for consideration by the planning team: “To reduce community-wide GHG emissions by 25% below 2013 levels by 2025, 30% by 2030, and 80% below by 2050.” Moving ourselves and our goods and services from place to place is very energy intensive while the vehi- cles we use for that mobility are very material re- source intensive. In addition to transportation vehi- cles, off-road equipment like construction, recreation- al and lawn equipment also consume significant amounts of fossil fuels for their operation. Off-road equipment have even higher GHG emission and over- all air pollution rates per gallon of fuel consumed than on-road vehicles due to less efficient combustion and lower emission standards than on-road vehicles. Equipment and transport systems have significant im- pacts on the environment, accounting globally for 20% to 25% of world energy consumption and carbon diox- ide emissions. In Edina, the transportation and land use sector accounts for 40.9% of citywide GHG emis- sions and are projected to increase as the electricity sector moves to more renewable energy sources. Many options exist for improving the sustainability of our transportation systems while improving quality of life and equity. Increasing shared transportation while decreasing use of single-occupancy vehicles sig- nificantly reduces the environmental impacts of trans- portation. This change also can improve equity in mo- bility. Alternative transportation modes like bicycles, eBikes, and scooters can also increase opportunities for exercise while reducing air pollution. Lastly, stud- ies indicate that recent advances in electric vehicles, car-sharing technologies and the potential for self- driving vehicles underline a much more sustainable usage of car assets that could remove up to 90% of the vehicles from the streets while enhancing mobility options. 2-1 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals 02 S e c t i o n Transportation and Land Use Click here to return to TOC 2-2 Edina Residential Density The city’s residential land use totals 5,896 acres—57.7% of the total area of the city. This land supports a population of 51,746 for an av- erage of 8.8 residents per residential land use acre. The city’s community wide density, includ- ing all zoning districts is 5.06 residents per acre. Transportation and Land Use Edina Land Use Density Emissions Reduction Potential According to the City’s comprehensive plan pop- ulation projections, the City of Edina may see a population increase of up to 16% by 2030. The study “The Influence of Urban Form on GHG Emissions in the U.S. Household Sector” (Lee, S., and Lee, B. 2014 ) found that for every 1% in- crease in population-weighted urban density, household travel CO2 emissions reduce by 0.48% and emissions associated with residential energy use decrease 0.35%. Based on this study, estab- lishing zoning ordinances and codes guiding fu- ture growth into options which increase the density of existing developed land rather than increasing the quantity of developed land is like- ly to have positive impact on decreasing total community wide emissions per household. If policies are established which guide just 40% of future population growth towards increased residential land use density, the potential 16% population increase could result in an increase of average population per developed acre from 8.8 to 9.4 residents per residential land use acre, or an increase of residential land use density of 6.4%. Applying the figures established in the Lee study, this could equate to an emissions re- duction of up to 3% for transportation related emissions. GHG emissions reduction associated with a 6.4% increased residential land use density by 2030: (1,630) Metric Tons. Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals 2-3 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Edina Vehicle Miles Traveled History As outlined in the chart above, the total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in Edina in 2019 was 581 million miles. This is an increase of 80.2 million miles, a 12.7% increase over the 7 year span. Edina Jobs Heat Mapping According to US Census data, the Edina has seen a decrease in total jobs within the community from 59,014 jobs in 2008 to 42,386 in 2018. Job density has also experienced a slight shift with jobs decreasing significantly in the Highway 169/62 area and increasing somewhat in the Highway 100/Vernon Ave area. VM T ( m i l l i o n s ) Employment Heat Map 2008 Employment Heat Map 2018 Transportation and Land Use 2-4 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Transportation and Land Use City of Edina Commute Since 2013, overall average commute time in Edina has remained at 19.1 minutes with 93% of those employed in Edina commutting from outside the City. Edina has also seen a steady trend in commuter modes with 78% commuters driving alone. These trends indicate that strategies to fo- cus job development nearest sections of residential density and to encourage alternative com- mute modes like public transit may decrease transportation emissions. Decreasing commuters driving alone by 6% to match the county wide average would decrease vehicle miles traveled by up to 10 million miles, saving an estimated $7,500,000 and eliminating up to (3,800) metric tons of GHG emissions annually. City of Edina Commuter Transport by Mode Since 2013 Commuter Transport Share by Mode 2018 City of Edina Hennepin County 2-5 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Transportation and Land Use Housing and Transportation Affordability Land Use density, job locations, and transportation significantly impact living costs, particularly housing and transportation affordability. The recommended share of income spent on housing is up to 30% and up to 15% for transportation, for a total transportation and housing burden of 45% of income. The map to the right, from Center for Neighborhood Technology, indicates the average Housing and Transportation affordability index for each of the census blocks within the City of Edi- na. The Citywide average housing and transportation burden (H+T) is 54% (36% on housing and 19% on transportation). As shown on the household count by H+T income share, over 4,500 house- holds in Edina have a combined H+T burden that is more than 2/3rds of household income. This trend indicates strategies that continue to focus job development nearest sections of residential density, increased housing affordability, and increased affordable mobility options may support decreasing cost of living, particularly associated with transportation. Walkability and Bikeability The measure of a community’s walkability and bikeability are an important metric of the communi- ty’s ability to advance sustainable transportation. Bike and walk scores will very across the city based on location specific parameters. Below are transit, walk and bike scores for the France Ave area City of Edina (Source: WalkScore.com). For this location, though the scores can be improved, the existing levels indicate a supportive environment for increasing alternative mobility options such as walking, biking, and public transit. Every 0.5% increase in commuter utilization of biking or walking in Edina may decrease vehicle miles traveled by 800,000, saving an estimated $600,000 and eliminating (315) metric tons of GHG emissions. Housing and Transportation Affordability Combined housing and transportation expenses as share of household income (Source: H+T Index) 2-6 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Public Transit Performance Map Overall transit score rating at connectivity, access to jobs, and frequency of service (Source: AllTransit) Transportation and Land Use Public Transit Indicators The map to the left illustrates the community area served by transit options (Advance Transit) and the corresponding “Performance Score”. Areas of lighter color have higher performance scores which represent a mixture of overall trips per week, number of jobs accessible, number of weekly commuters using the transit options, and equity of transit system. (Source: Alltransit) The average commute in Edina is 19.1 minutes, or approximately 16 miles. Meanwhile, AAA esti- mates that the cost per mile for operating a vehicle is $0.74. Consequently, every 1% increase in commuter utilization of public transit in Edina may decrease vehicle miles traveled by 1.6 million miles, saving an estimated $1.25 million and eliminating (630) metric tons of GHG emissions annually. 2-7 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Transportation and Land Use Vehicle Ownership in Edina According to the US Census, nearly 47% of all households own two vehicles, over 38% own 1 vehicle, 12% own three vehi- cles, nearly 3% own four vehicles, and about 1/2% own five or more vehicles. Communitywide, 6.7% are households with no vehicles. According to census data there are 36,600 vehicles total in the city. Transitioning this rolling vehicle stock from fossil fuel combus- tion to low and no emission alternative is critical in meeting significant long-range emissions reductions in this sector. For every 1% of vehicles converted to EV or low/no emission fuel alternatives up to 2,750 metric tons of GHG emissions can be eliminated annually (including emissions associated with in- creased electricity consumption). Existing Edina Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure The chart to the right illustrates the total number of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure in Edina compared with the State of Minnesota. As of April 2020, Edina had 357 battery electric vehicles (BEV), and 112 plug-in electric vehi- cles (PHEV). Comparing the city of Edina’s EV rolling stock against Statewide vehicle counts (7,322 BEVs and 5,556 PHEVs), it is clear that the city’s adoption rate is higher than State averages. The city currently has no DC Fast charging ports, but does have public Level II chargers. EV Adoption Rates in Minnesota The graph to the right illustrates the new EV purchase adop- tion rates in Minnesota since 2013. The trends illustrate a clearly increasing EV share of new vehicles purchased from 3.4% in 2013 to 5.7% in 2020. Vehicle Ownership by Household Type of Electric Vehicle Vehicles in State Vehicles in City City Share of State City Share Compared to Population Share EV % of All Vehicles in City BEV 7322 357 4.9% 5.3x population 1% PHEV 5556 112 2% 2.2x population 0.3% Electric Vehicle Charging Chargers in State Chargers in City City Share City Share Compared to Population Share DC Fast Ports 192 0 - N/A Level II Ports 551 14 2.6% 2.6x population Existing Edina Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure (Source: Alliance for Automotive Innovation) EV Adoption Rates in Minnesota 2-8 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Transportation and Land Use EV Charging Infrastructure Required in the US by 2030 (serving 18.7 million EV’s in use) According to the Edison Foundation, Electric Vehicle stock in the United States is projected to reach 18.7 million in 2030, up from slightly more than 1 million at the end of 2018. This means EV’s will make up at least 7% of the vehicles on the road by that time. (Sources: US Department of Energy, Alternative Fuels Data Center, US Census, Edison Foundation “Electric Vehicle Sales Forecast and the Charging Infrastructure Required Through 2030” report). Minimum EV Infrastructure Needed in Edina 2030 For Edina, the Edison Foundation’s EV charging infrastructure need projections mean anticipating at least 2,900 EV’s owned and operated by Edina residents by 2030 in addition to the increased EV utilization by visitors to the city and commuters who work in the city but live elsewhere. These EV’s will require a minimum of 121 public level II charging ports, 197 workplace level II charging ports, and 15 public CD Fast Charging ports. This will require a minimum increase of 304 level 2 charging ports and 15 DC Fast Charging ports by 2030. For every 1% increase in EV utilization be- yond that, an additional 3.12 level 2 charging ports and 0.5 DC Fast charging ports should be planned. 2-9 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Transportation and Land Use City of Edina Vehicle Fleet As of March 2021, the City of Edina has a municipal vehicle fleet of 307 cars and trucks. Over 88% of the fleet are gasoline or diesel internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles while 9.8% are electric vehicles in- cluding hybrid electric (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) and battery electric (BEV). The City’s fleet spans a range of vehicle use classes reflecting the range of services the City’s departments provide. The fleet is comprised of light duty vehicles (36.7%), medium and heavy duty (25.7%), construc- tion duty (37%), and support equipment like ATV’s and boats (0.7%). City of Edina Vehicle Fleet by Fuel Type Total Gasoline Used: 90,700 Gallons Annually Total Diesel Used: 47,900 Gallons Annually Source: Fleetcarma March 2019 report 2-10 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Transportation and Land Use Fleet Efficiency Potential The City’s fleet uses 138,600 gallons of gasoline and diesel fuel annually. According to a 2019 Elec- tric Vehicle Suitability Assessment conducted by Fleetcarma, of the vehicles assessed by Fleet- Carma study, the average fuel economy is 16 miles per gallon. The average vehicle in the fleet is in operation (engine on) for 2 hours each day and 42% of that time is spent idling. Strategies for improved fuel efficiency which may be effective for the City’s fleet include reduction or elimination of engine idling, driver behavior changes, and prioritization of higher fuel efficiency in vehicle replacements. Increasing fuel efficiency of the City’s fleet will reduce the municipal oper- ations GHG emissions while reducing annual operation expenses through the reduction of fuel pur- chase. For every 1% of improved fuel efficiency, the fleet’s GHG emissions will be reduced by more than (12) metric tons annually. Fleet EV Conversion Potential Conversion of fleet vehicles to electric wherever feasible will have the most significant and immedi- ate impact on reduction of fleet operations GHG emissions as well as annual operating expenses. As with all vehicle fleets, regular retirement and replacement of vehicles represent an on-going op- portunity to increase electric vehicle adoption. The City currently has 72 vehicle replacements planned by 2025. All of the vehicles slated for replacement are gas or diesel combustion vehicles, providing an opportunity to increase the share of electric vehicles in the fleet by as much as 26%. On average, for every combustion engine vehicle replaced by an electric vehicle (BEV), the City’s fleet emissions could be reduced by (4) metric tons annually or more (variations will occur based on use case and daily mileage driven for each vehicle). Total GHG Emissions: 12,214 Metric Tons (2019) Source: Fleetcarma City of Edina Vehicle Fleet Planned Replacements by Fuel Type 2-11 Edina Climate AcƟon Baseline and Strategic Goals TransportaƟon and Land Use Strategic Goal RecommendaƟons Community Wide Based on the reviews outlined in this secƟon, we recom- mend the City of Edina explore establishing the following TransportaƟon and Land Use Strategic Goals: Pathway 1—ReducƟon TL 1: Decrease community wide VMT by 2% by 2030. TL 2: Increase public transit commuter ridership from 3.3% to 5% by 2030. TL 3: Increase average population per developed acre by 2% by 2030. Fuel Switching TL 4: Increase baƩery electric vehicle (BEV) uƟlizaƟon to 12% of community wide rolling stock (from ap- proximately 357 vehicles to 4,392 vehicles communi- ty-wide). TL 5: Establish viable biodiesel sources to serve com- munity by 2025. Achieve 5% diesel consumpƟon re- placement with biodiesel by 2030. Strategic Goal RecommendaƟons Municipal OperaƟons Based on the reviews outlined in this secƟon, we recom- mend the City of Edina explore establishing the following TransportaƟon and Land Use Strategic Goals: Fuel Switching TL 6: Achieve 40% conversion of municipal opera- Ɵons gasoline and e10 gasoline vehicles and equip- ment within municipal fleet to EV's by 2030. Achieve 100% conversion by 2040. TL 7: Convert all municipal operaƟons diesel fuel uƟlizaƟon to biodiesel fuel by 2027. TL 8: Increase fuel efficiency of remaining combus- Ɵon engine fleet by 15% by 2030. Projected Sector Emission ReducƟons Achieved by DraŌ Strategies 2-12 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals 3-1 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals 03 S e c t i o n Buildings and Energy Click here to return to TOC Building energy use is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Building Energy sector includes all residential, commercial, and industrial buildings. Greenhouse gas emis- sions from this sector come from direct emissions – from fossil fuels burned on-site for heating or cooking needs – as well as indirect emissions – from fossil fuels burned off-site in order to supply that building with electricity. Building design plays a large role in determining the future effi- ciency and comfort of facilities. Increasing ener- gy efficiency can help reduce GHG emissions and result in significant cost savings for both homes and businesses. The Edina community can also achieve environmental, social, and economic ben- efits through enhancements to the built environ- ment. Buildings and Energy Electricity and Natural Gas Emissions Share of 2019 GHG Emissions by Sub-Sector 3-2 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Buildings and Energy Edina Energy Use Profile—Community Wide Residential: According to 2019 community wide data, the resi- dential sector in Edina consumes nearly 194.5 million kWh annually. This is equal to 8,719 kWh per house- hold. The sector also consumes over 20.4 million therms of natural gas annually. As illustrated in the chart to the left, residential electricity consumption per household has been steadily declining since 2013 while residential natural gas consumption per house- hold has been increasing since 2016. Commercial and Industrial: The Edina commercial and industrial sector in 2019 consumed nearly 334.2 million kWh, equal to 7,885 kWh per job. These sectors also consume over 19.5 million therms of natural gas annually. As illustrated in the chart to the left, commercial and industrial electricity consumption per job decreased signifi- cantly between 2013 and 2016 but increased nearly just as much again between 2016 and 2019. Com- mercial and industrial natural gas consumption per job has followed the same curve as residential natu- ral gas consumption increasing since 2016. Potential for Change in Edina Based on the City’s recent new building permit histo- ry (shown to the left), as much as 16% of the city’s housing stock and 7-10% of the city’s commercial building stock may be renovated or replaced over a 10 year timeframe. This means that a significant portion of the city’s building infrastructure could be positively impacted and influenced through climate action strategies that guide increased energy effi- ciency and increased renewable energy adoption. Residential Energy Use Trends New Building Construction Permits in Edina New Housing Permits in Last 3 Years: 231 New Housing Units in Last 3 Years: 1,032 (4.8% of citywide housing stock) New Commercial Building Permits in Last 3 Years: 10 (2.2% of citywide commercial building stock) Commercial Renovation Permits in Last 3 Years: 611 Commercial and Industrial Energy Use Trends Buildings and Energy Edina’s Building Stock Efficiency The measure of a community’s existing building stock, certified high performance buildings, and housing characteristics provides a basis for determining the current and potential energy efficiency gains for the community. Energy and water efficiency upgrades are one of the sim- plest and most effective ways to conserve resources, save money, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Residential Energy Efficiency Potential: New building technology has increased energy efficiency significantly in recent decades. Although newer U.S. homes are 30 percent larger, they consume a similar amount of total energy as older homes - mean- ing they are more energy efficient per square foot of space. According to the US Energy Information Administration, homes built between 2000 and 2009 used 15% less energy per square foot than homes built in the 1980s, and 40% less energy than homes built before 1950. Consequently, this means that retrofitting older homes with some of these technologies provides ample opportunity to improve energy effi- ciency throughout the community. The maps to the right illustrate the distribution of owner occupied and renter occupied homes built before 1980 throughout Edina. Edina Owner Occupied Homes Built Before 1980 Edina Renter Occupied Homes Built Before 1980 % Renter Occupied Housing Units Built before 1980 % Owner Occupied Housing Units Built before 1980 3-3 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Buildings and Energy The chart below outlines the estimated annual energy savings potential for households within the City. Anticipating an energy efficiency participa- tion of 4,265 of the city wide total of 21,325 households by 2030 (20% participation rate) with an average energy efficiency improvement of 15% each should yield an annual community-wide energy reduction of 5.85 million kWh of electricity and 610,000 therms. This reduction would achieve an annual GHG reduction of (5,373) metric tons by 2030. Note, this reduction model anticipates a participation focus for residential units built prior to 1980. 3-4 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Edina Residential Building Stock Energy Efficiency Potential (based on 2018 US Census Data) 3-5 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Buildings and Energy Commercial and Industrial Building Energy Efficiency Potential: Similarly to residential construction, older commercial buildings or newer commercial buildings with under-performing energy efficiency represent a significant potential energy efficiency increase. This means that retrofitting older commercial buildings with some of these tech- nologies provides ample opportunity to improve energy efficiency throughout the community. The chart below outlines the estimated annual energy savings potential for commercial buildings within the City of Edina. Anticipating an energy efficiency participation of 20% of commercial buildings by 2030 based (approximately 93 of a total estimated 463 commercial properties) with an average energy efficiency improvement of 15% should yield an annual community-wide energy reduction of 4.28 million kWh of electricity and 22,120 therms of thermal energy. This reduction would achieve an annual GHG reduction of (6,677) met- ric tons by 2030. Edina Commercial Building Stock Energy Efficiency Potential (based on 2018 US Census Data) Existing High Performance Buildings in Edina ENERGY STAR Certified Buildings: 33 LEED Certified Buildings: 6 Certified Net Zero Buildings: 0 Existing Green Roofs, Known: 1 Sources: US EP New Buildings Institute, A ENERGY STAR, US Green Building Council, Greenroofs.com, Rooftop Sedums LLC 3-6 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Edina Homes with No Fuel Used Edina Homes with Electric Heat Edina Homes with Utility Gas Heat (for year 2018) Buildings and Energy Residential and Commercial Building Heating Fuel Switching Potential According to the US Census, approximately 78% of residential heating is provided by natural gas, 17.7% by electricity, 1.5% by propane gas, 1.5% by “other”, and 0.5% by fuel oil. Approximately 0.5%, or 162 households, have no heat of any type in their home. As Edina’s electric grid nears carbon neutrality, building heating fuel will become an increasingly important target for emission reductions. Reduction, and ultimately the elimination of all fossil fuel heating (oil, propane, natural gas) will be required in order to achieve community wide carbon reductions. Buildings and Energy Heating fuel switch options include: • Conversion to electric heat (e.g. heat pump). • Conversion to solar thermal systems. • Switching fuel oil or diesel fuels to biofuels. The charts below outline the potential annual GHG reductions with achieving a heating fuel switch for 10% of Edina households and commercial establish- ments by 2030. These reductions would achieve a reduction in GHG emissions equal to (10,460) metric tons for residential and (6,939) metric tons for com- mercial and industrial. 3-7 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals (based on 2018 US Census Data) Buildings and Energy Residential and Commercial Building Electricity Fuel Switching Poten- tial (on-site renewable) Community Wide Due to Xcel Energy’s “Carbon Free by 2050” commitment (https:// www.xcelenergy.com/carbon_free_2050 ), the GHG emissions associ- ated with electricity use will continue to reduce over the years. Gener- ally, however, increasing utilization of on-site renewable energy has multiple benefits for a community beyond GHG emissions reductions. The range of community benefits of increased on-site renewable ener- gy include energy cost savings and increased energy resilience poten- tial. For these reasons, we still recommend inclusion of strategic goals to increase on-site renewable energy. paleBLUEdot has assessed the rooftop solar PV potential throughout the City of Edina. This assessment has been conducted based on com- munity-wide satellite data (sources: NREL, NOAA, and NASA). Gener- ating capacity was calculated by roof orientation and tilt category. The projected potential for roof characteristics likely to result in economi- cally viable solar arrays were then summarized—see “Total County- wide Optimized Rooftop Solar PV Potential” chart on following page. City of Edina’s Solar Share Based on 2021 Data: State Edina Edina's Share Population 5,640,000 51,746 0.92% Number of Solar Installations 7,544 91 1.21% Average Solar Installations / 1,000 households 1.35 4.17 308.98% Estimated Solar Generating Capac- ity (MW) 1,507.93 1.74 0.12% Average Array Size (KW) 199.88 19.09 10% Solar Industry Businesses 146 3 2.05% 3-8 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Buildings and Energy Total City Wide Optimized Rooftop Solar PV Potential 3-9 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Solar PV Market Absorption Scenario paleBLUEdot then explored potential new solar PV market absorption scenarios building on the existing 1.74 MW of installed capacity within the county through 2030. The market projec- tion we recommend using for guidance on po- tential new solar installations within Edina uses Edina’s current leading adoption rate per 1,000 households (3x State average) and applies that to the statewide new solar PV projections. sim- ple. The resulting scenario outlined to the right anticipates a 36% initial growth rate, steadily reducing to a 7.5% growth rate by 2040. This scenario would result in approximately 5% of current citywide electrical consumption being met through rooftop solar PV. Buildings and Energy GHG emissions reduction associated with increased solar projection by 2030: (1,630) Metric Tons based on projected electric grid emission factors (-4,531 metric tons based on current grid emission factors). 3-10 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals 3-11 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Buildings and Energy The Need to Focus on Low and Moderate Income Solar Potential Solar PV systems provide a wide range of potential benefits, including long-term energy cost sav- ings, energy resilience, and reductions in air pollution including particulate matter and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – with positive implications for environmental and human health. Currently, most of the solar customers in the United States are in the same demographic -middle to upper class, middle-aged, and usually male. “Rooftop Solar Technical Potential for Low-to-Moderate In- come Households in the United States”, a recent study by NREL, found that the median income of households that install solar panels in some states was roughly $32,000 higher than the median household income in those states. The growth of solar in the United States provides a tremendous opportunity to address some of the greatest challenges faced by lower-income communities: the high cost of housing, unemployment, and pollution. Solar can provide long-term financial relief to families struggling with high and unpre- dictable energy costs, living-wage jobs in an industry where the workforce has increased 168% over the past seven years, and a source of clean, local energy sited in communities that have been dis- proportionately impacted by traditional power generation. Yet, access to distributed solar power remains elusive for a significant slice of the U.S. population, particularly low- and moderate-income (LMI) communities— households whose income is 80% or less of the area’s median. Although solar PV costs have dropped significantly in recent years, upfront installation costs are still persistently out of reach for most LMI populations, which, by definition, have less disposable in- come. Beyond having limited cash-on-hand for solar power purchases, LMI populations face other obstacles in pursuing distributed solar systems, including: • frequently lower credit scores, making it difficult to attain a loan for solar investments; • insufficient tax burden to benefit from state and federal solar tax incentives; and • lower rates of homeownership and higher likelihood of living in multifamily housing units—making for limited control over decisions about utilities, especially rooftop solar. The solar potential for LMI communities is a critical market that must be developed within any com- munity seeking to significantly advance renewable energy, energy resilience, or Climate Action goals. Increasing access for LMI communities is important not only in order to help address some of the challenges outlined above, it is likely necessary in order to meet long-term community-wide renewa- ble energy goals. Half of all residential solar potential is on LMI households. Solar capacity on LMI households could total 320 GW—over thirty times the total new solar in 2017. Low Income Households In Edina (based on 2019 US Cen- sus Data) Income Distribution of Households In Edina (based on 2019 US Census Data) 3-12 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Buildings and Energy Energy Burden In Edina A household’s energy burden—the percentage of household income spent on energy bills—provides an indication of energy affordability. Researchers define households with a 6% energy burden or higher to experience a high burden. Factors that may increase energy burdens include the physical condition of a home, a household’s ability to invest in energy-efficient up- grades, and the availability of energy efficiency programs and incentives. The charts on the right illustrate the distribution of households with high energy burden based on: • Renter vs Owner by Income Level • Building Age by Income Level These charts indicate that both renter and home owner low income community members are far more likely to live under high energy burdens regardless of building age. This data can be used to design energy efficiency and renewable energy pro- grams to reduce energy burden while reducing GHG emissions within the community. Energy Burden by Building Age and Income Level Potential total households living with high energy burden (See Edina Renewable Energy Potentials Study for more): 6,589 (29%) in Communi-ty: High Energy Burden High Energy Burden Energy Burden by Occupant Ownership and Income Level 3-13 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Buildings and Energy Strategic Goal Recommendations— Community Wide Based on the reviews outlined in this section, we recommend the City of Edina explore establishing the following Buildings and Energy Strate- gic Goals: Pathway 1—Reduction BE 1: Improve total Community wide residential, commercial, educational, and industrial building energy efficiency by 10% for electricity and 10% for Natural Gas by 2030. BE2: Increase adoption of high performance building construc- tion technology, achieving 1/2% Net Zero households and com- mercial properties community wide by 2030. BE3: Reduce share of population living in high energy poverty from 29% to 24% by 2030. Fuel Switching BE 4: Achieve 10% residential and commercial and industrial building "fuel switching" from on-site fossil fuel combustion to electrification by 2030. BE 5: Increase renewable energy from 0.4% to 5% of citywide residential and commercial electric use by 2030. Projected Sector Emission Reductions Achieved by Draft Strategies 3-14 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Buildings and Energy Strategic Goal Recommendations—Municipal Operations Based on the reviews outlined in this section, we recommend the City of Edina explore establishing the following municipal operations Buildings and Energy Strategic Goals: Pathway 1—Reduction BE 6: Improve total municipal building energy efficiency by 12% for electricity and 12% for natural gas by 2030. Fuel Switching BE 7: Achieve 10% municipal building thermal “fuel switching" from on-site fossil fuel combustion to electrification by 2030. BE 5: Increase on-site renewable energy from 0.2% to 7.5% of city operations electricity consumption by 2030. Note approximately 60% of City operations electric use is met through com- munity solar garden subscriptions (CSG). Though CSG subscriptions have a wide range of benefits, they do not provide GHG reduction benefits unless renewable energy credits (RECs) are retained. Installation of on-site renewa- ble energy or purchase of RECs is required to support GHG reductions of City operations. 4-1 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals 04 S e c t i o n Waste Management Click here to return to TOC Waste Management Citywide municipal solid waste (MSW) handled has been estimated based on the city’s pro-rata share of Hennepin County-wide solid waste collected. In 2019, citywide MSW totaled 54,041 tons. Of the MSW handled an estimated 17,263 tons (31.9% of total) were recycled, 5,775 tons (10.7%) were or- ganics collection, 18,927 tons (35%) were managed as refuse derived fuel (RDF), and the remaining 12,076 tons (22.3%) were landfilled. Edina Solid Waste Per Capita Trends Based on Hennepin County and State of Minnesota data, total community-wide MSW handled in 2013 was equivalent to 4.83 pounds per person per day with landfilled waste comprising 1.2 pounds (24.8%). By 2019 the community-wide MSW handled increased to 5.6 pounds per person per day due in large part to increased organics and recycling collection, however, landfilled waste share of the total increased to 1.25 pounds per person per day. Though this 2019 landfilled waste share is a lower percentage of the total (22.3% down from 34.8%), the estimated increase in landfilled volume per person indicates a potential trend resulting in increased GHG emissions. Minnesota Waste Stream Changing The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) commissioned a statewide study to determine the characteristics of statewide waste streams. The project studied garbage from six facilities throughout the state and separated it into nine primary categories. The study found that Minnesota waste has changed since the last study was conducted in 2000. Paper, plastics, and organics are still the top three components of our garbage, but the proportions have changed—plastic is up, food is up, but paper is down. This indicates great potential for increased organics recycling opportunities. 4-2 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Waste Management Minnesota’s Waste Hierarchy Following the Minnesota Climate Change Advisory Group’s initial rec- ommendations on statewide GHG emissions reductions, the MPCA con- ducted a study to identify the most promising potentials for reduction of solid waste emissions. The report produced the hierarchy of waste management (below) to achieve the best environmental results. This hierarchy illustrates the potential strategy prioritization Edina may con- sider for the waste management sector. Hennepin County Waste Characterization Study In 2015, Hennepin County initiated a comprehensive, quantitative eval- uation to understand the make up of the current waste stream (materials not diverted through recycling or organics collection) and how it may be possible to achieve the 75% state-mandated diversion goal. In the graph to the left, the findings of the composition of the waste characterization study are shown. This graph groups the classifi- cations of waste defined in the 2015 study into broad categories based on their diversion potential including: Compostables, Potential Recycla- bles, Potential Recoverables, and Other. Waste Diversion Potential Based on the Hennepin County Waste Characterization Study, there may be waste diversion potential of up to 78.7% in the current land- filled materials (idealized maximum). Below is the breakdown of the estimated total maximum potential waste diversion (excluding waste reduction): Compostables 29.1% Potentially Recyclable Materials 35.0% Potentially Recoverable Materials 14.7% Other Materials (remaining landfill waste) 21.3% Potential Recoverables: 14.7% Other: 21.3% Potential Recyclables: 35% Compostables: 29.1% 35 % Re c y c l a b l e 29 . 1 % Co m p o s t a b l e 21.3% Remaining (78.7% Diversion Potential) 14 . 7 % Re c o v e r a b l e 4-3 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Waste Management Strategic Goal Recommendations Community Wide Based on the reviews outlined in this section, we recommend the City of Edina explore establishing the following Waste Management Goals: Pathway 1—Reduction WM 1: Decrease total per capita municipal solid waste handled by 5% by 2030. WM 2: Achieve 30% organics landfill waste diversion by 2030 (10% of total MSW). WM 3: Increase recycling from 32% to 35% of total MSW han- dled by 2030. WM 4: Increase diversion of potential recoverables by 15% by 2030 (decreasing from 14.7% of city mixed waste to 12.5%) Projected Sector Emission Reductions Achieved by Draft Strategies 4-4 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals 5-1 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals 05 S e c t i o n Water and Wastewater Click here to return to TOC Water and Wastewater Water and Energy Nexus Water and energy are fundamental components of our 21st century life. Production, distribution, consumption, and treatment of water consumes energy. Production of energy - particularly those generated through fossil fuel use - consumes wa- ter. The water-energy nexus is the relationship between how much water is used to generate and transmit energy, and how much energy it takes to collect, clean, move, store, and dispose of water. Both fresh water production and waste water treatment are typically the highest energy and carbon emission sources within a communi- ty’s operations. Reduction of water demand saves energy not only in the production and dis- tribution of fresh water but also in the collection and treatment of wastewater. Regional Water Stress By 2025, an estimated 1.8 billion people will live in areas plagued by water scarcity, with two- thirds of the world's population living in water- stressed regions. Since 1985 the Edina region has had a reduction in water yield of approximately 10%. Through 2050, the City can anticipate an increase in water demand of 20%. (Sources: “Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the Unit- ed States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change”, World Resources Institute, USGS). Change in Water Yield Since 1985 Projected Change in Water Demand by 2050 5-2 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Water and Wastewater Mitigating Flood Impacts According to the US National Climate Assessment, the ten rainiest days can contribute up to 40% of the annual precipitation in the Minnesota region. By 2070, the Edina area can anticipate an increase of up to 15% in the total annual precipitation. In addition, the timeframe between rains is expected to continue to increase, (source US National Climate Assessment). Under this scenar- io, it is likely that certain periods of the year, like spring, may be significantly wetter with storms producing heavier rains. In anticipation of that, it is appropriate to review the areas of the City with flood risk and to review current storm water management capacity against future extreme rainfall event projections. The map shows the flood risk areas throughout the City as defined by FEMA . Flood risks illustrat- ed relate to water surface elevations for 1% chance annual floods (“100 year flood event”). Areas shown relate to existing bodies of water as well as potential “flash flood” zones in low-lying areas. The charts to the left show the number of properties in the city currently at risk of flood damage, the projected change in properties at risk due to climate change, and the historical flood damage value reported in Edina. (Source: FEMA, FM Global, National Flood Services ) Source: Floodfactor.com 5-3 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals For a City the size of Edina, reducing water leaks by 50% alone could save: 236 Million gallons of water annually. Water Conservation Potential Water and Wastewater Water Conservation Potential Based on Edina Public Works data, water consumption citywide decreased 18.9% from 2013 to 2019. Wastewater generation, however remained essentially constant showing a modest 1.1% reduction over the same period. Though the reported water reduction is significant, there is likely additional water conservation potential. According to the Water Research Foundation, on average, 12% of municipal water distribution is lost through leaks in water mains and water pipes on private property. For Edina, this could represent up to 236 million gallons of water annually. For every 1% of water and wastewater consumption reduction made, citywide GHG emissions can be decreased up to 100 metric tons annually. Perhaps more importantly, increased water conser- vation can help maintain healthy aquifers as the region’s water demand increases and improve re- silience through precipitation variations exacerbated by climate change. Water and Wastewater Trends in Edina 5-4 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Water and Wastewater Strategic Goal Recommendations Community Wide Based on the reviews outlined in this section, we recommend the City of Edina explore establish- ing the following Water and Wastewater Strate- gic Goals: Pathway 1—Reduction W 1: Promote increased water conserva- tion citywide with a targeted reduction of 6% by 2030. W 2: Reduce wastewater generation City Wide with a targeted reduction of 12% by 2030. W 3: Mitigate the projected increased flood hazards and impacts due to climate change. W 4: Update design standards and plans to meet projected climate change flood miti- gation requirements. Projected Sector Emission Reductions Achieved by Draft Strategies 06 S e c t i o n Local Food and Agriculture Click here to return to TOC Transporting food across long distances burns fossil fuels and emits greenhouse gases. The ex- tended period of time of long-distance transport increases the need for refrigeration. Refrigera- tion is carbon-intensive. The less transportation and refrigeration needed to supply us our food, the more sustainable it becomes. Buying food from local sources can reduce the carbon intensity of our diet while also supporting your small business local economy. Studies have indicated that nearly 32 jobs are created for eve- ry $1 million in revenue generated by produce farms involved in a local food market, compared to only 10.5 jobs for those involved in wholesale channels exclusively. Meanwhile, the outdoor and social activity supported by community gar- dens and increased gardening in neighborhoods have social and community benefits like increas- ing social cohesion, providing multi-generational activity, supporting outdoor low-impact exercise, and support of plant/animal/pollinator habitat) 6-1 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Community Gardens In Edina Yorktown Park NOT EDITED Community Gardens Per 100,000 Residents United States: 18,000 Total (est) Twin Cities Metro: 600 Total City of Burnsville: 600 Total City of Edina: 1 Total (City operated) (Sources: American Community Gardening Association, Star Tribune, City of Burnsville, City of Edina) Farmer’s Market Locations in Edina: 5.5 18.3 4.9 1.9 1 6-2 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Local Food and Agriculture A robust local food system establishes additional supply chains and re- silience to distribution disruptions. Healthy local food systems can also play a critical role in addressing food access vulnerability and food inse- curity within neighborhoods of higher vulnerability. Increased local food systems also tend to increase diversity and long-term food system resilience in food crops cultivated. Strategic Goal Recommendations Community Wide Based on the reviews outlined in this section, we recommend the City of Edina explore establishing the following Local Food and Agriculture Strategic Goals: LF 1: Increase production of local food, particularly serving low income and food insecure individuals. LF 2: Increase access to local food (potentially through the devel- opment of local Farmer’s Markets, establishment of permaculture “food forests” and increased access to community gardens). LF 3: Reduce food waste and hunger, achieve a 50% reduction in food insecurity community-wide by 2030. LF4: Increase local agricultural resilience to climate shocks. Trees and natural ground covering play a central role in supporting community health, improving air and water quality, helping to reduce building energy use, and supporting climate mitigation. Recent studies have shown that sometimes, going to a park, or even looking a single tree can significantly improve a person’s health and stress levels. Our understanding of the value of trees has been expanded to include mental and physical health benefits. Trees are critical in filtering air, removing harmful pollutants, such as Carbon Monoxide, particulate matter, and Ground-level Ozone - pollutants that can be toxic at high levels and which can cause asthma and other respiratory impacts. Conversely, higher levels of impervious surfaces (pavement and buildings) within a community will increase the heat island of the community. Heat island refers to the phenomenon of higher atmospheric and surface temperatures occur- ring in developed areas than those experienced in the surrounding rural areas due to human activities and infrastructure. Increased heat indices during summer months due to heat is- land effects raise human discomfort and health risk levels in developed areas, especially during heat waves. Based on a 2006 study done by Minnesota State University and the University of Minnesota, the relationship between imper- vious surface percentage of a City and the cor- responding degree of heat island temperature increase can be understood as a ratio. (see “Impervious Surface Reduction Potential” for more) 7-1 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals 07 S e c t i o n Greenspace and Trees Click here to return to TOC 7-2 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Greenspace and Trees Community-wide Land Cover Characteristics Based on the Ground Cover Survey and Car- bon Sequestration Study, the city’s land cover characteristics are: Tree Canopy Coverage City Average: 35.9% Census Tract High: 46.7% Tract: 236 Census Tract Low: 12.6% Tract: 240.05 Lawns and Grass Coverage City Average: 21.2% Census Tract High: 34.1% Tract: 239.01 Census Tract Low: 10.0% Tract: 240.05 Dark Impervious Surface Coverage (buildings+pavement) City Average: 25.5% Census Tract High: 46.6% Tract: 240.04 Census Tract Low: 18.4% Tract: 240.05 7-3 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Ground Cover Breakdown by Type Mo r e L M I Le s s L M I Trend Line Trend Line Greenspace and Trees Review Criteria - Green Infrastructure Prioritization of locations for increased green infrastructure included in this report is based on an equity approach. This approach reviews a range of land cover and demographic charac- teristics of each neighborhood in an “Environmental Equity Index”, based on proce- dures developed by the USDA Forest Service. To determine the best locations to plant trees, tree canopy and impervious cover maps were used in conjunction with U.S. Census data to produce an index of priority planting areas by neighborhood. Index values were produced for each neighborhood with higher index values relating to higher priority of the area for tree planting. This index is a type of “environmental equity” index with areas with higher human population density, higher economic stress, lower existing tree cover, and higher total tree canopy potential receiving the higher index val- ue. The criteria used to make the index were: Ground Cover Characteris- tics by Census Tract Organized by Share of Low In- come Population (LMI) The bar chart provides a side-by-side comparison of the of land cover by Cen- sus Tract. The trend lines indicate census tracts with more lower income resi- dents have less tree and grass coverage and more dark impervious surfaces. 7-4 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals • Priority Tree Canopy Increase Based on Tree Stock Potential Levels. • Priority Tree Canopy Increase Based on Eco- nomic Stress Density. • Priority Tree Canopy Increase Based on Tree Population Density. • Priority Tree Canopy Increase Based on Heat Island Mitigation Potential. Weighted Priority Tree Canopy Increase The weighted prioritization for tree canopy in- crease looks to balance the potential for increased tree canopy with the opportunity to improve tree canopy benefit equity, potential to positively im- pact as many households as possible, and the need for mitigation of heat island impacts. The priorities above are weighted as follows: • Potential for new trees: 20% • Population density: 20% • Low Income Population (equity adjustment): 30% • Heat Island mitigation need: 30% Greenspace and Trees Weighted Priority Tree Canopy Increase To improve environmen- tal equity, the darker green areas of this map with higher numbers in the legend below should be prioritized for new tree plantings. Greenspace and Trees Calculating Tree Canopy Coverage Goals Total tree canopy coverage goals are central to long-range land cover goal recommendations for the city. In support of an “Environmental Equity” approach to tree canopy goalsetting, as outlined, identification of long-term tree canopy coverage goals includes consideration of each neighbor- hood’s Tree Stock value (the amount of existing tree canopy compared to available land for tree canopy coverage), population densities, economic stress densities, and heat island mitigation need. As a long-term focus, we are using 2040 as a goal calculation date reflecting the time for planted tree to reach maturity, however, final and refined goals can be established for 2030 or any other interim year. Goals are established with a progressive percentage increase goal based on neighborhood prioritization. As the total Tree Stock area (potential tree canopy) varies by neigh- borhood, the resulting Tree Canopy percentage varies for each neighborhood. The recommended Tree Stock increase goals are: For neighborhoods in the top 1/3rd Neighborhood Priority Ranking: 10% For neighborhoods in middle 1/3rd Neighborhood Priority Ranking: 6.3% For neighborhoods in bottom 1/3rd Neighborhood Priority Ranking: 2.5% 7-5 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Tree Canopy In- crease in Absolute Land Cover % Tree Canopy In- crease Over Existing Tree Canopy Area 7-6 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals New Tree Planting Annual Target to Meet 2040 Tree Canopy Goal Community-Wide Total (Note, Acreage represents the canopy cover- age at year of planting, with an assumed new tree crown radius of 5’): 1,976 New Trees 16 Acres Other Ground Cover Goal Potentials In addition to opportunities to expand and improve the city’s tree can- opy, the findings of the ground cover study as outlined in the the Edi- na Ground Cover, Tree Canopy, and Carbon Sequestration Study may be used to identify additional opportunities for increased heat island mitigation and increased native grass installations. *Comparison of impervious surface area and normalized difference vegetation index as indicators of surface urban heat island effects in Landsat imagery. Fi Yuan and Marvin Bauer, February 2007 New Tree Planting Annual Target by Census Tract (in number of new trees planted annually) Greenspace and Trees Turf Reduction Potential As illustrated in the chart to the right, 93% of grass lands in Edina are manicured lawns—representing a great opportunity for turf reduction. Turf reduction can increase stormwater uptake, reduce potable water use, and increase soil carbon. Impervious Surface Reduction Potential The city’s experiences of heat island are directly impacted by the level of impervious surface coverage— particularly dark roofs and pavement. Based on a 2006 study done by Min- nesota State University and the Uni- versity of Minnesota*, the relationship between impervious surface percent- age of a City and the corresponding degree of heat island temperature increase can be understood as a ratio. This chart illustrates dark pavements make up 50% of all impervious surfac- es, followed by dark roof surfaces at 30%. These represent significant op- portunities for decreasing heat island impacts in the community. For every 1% decrease in impervious surfaces in a neighborhood of Edina, that area’s likely experience of summer time heat island temperatures may decrease 0.17° F See Edina Ground Cover Survey and Carbon Sequestration study for more information: https://cutt.ly/AvHFqVW Existing Grass Coverage in Edina by Type Existing Impervious Surface Coverage in Edina by Type 7-7 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Greenspace and Trees Strategic Goal Recommendations Community Wide Based on the reviews outlined in this section, we recommend the City of Edina explore establish- ing the following Greenspace and Trees Strategic Goals: GC 1: Increase tree cover from 35.9% to 37.8% by 2030 and 39.7% by 2040. GC 2: Increase pollinator supportiveness of lawns and grasslands in City of Edina and achieve a 5% turf replacement with native grasses and wildflowers by 2030. GC 3: Reduce heat island effect through citywide “dark” impervious surface reduc- tion of 2.5% by 2030 and 5% by 2040. GS 4: Reduce, repurpose, and reimagine lawn space. 7-8 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals 8-1 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Climate Health and Safety There is a strong relationship between human health and environmental health. From the air we breathe to the water we drink and use, life here on Earth depends on the natural resources and the environment around us. This link between the environment and human health is a critical consid- eration of the impacts of climate change. As outlined in the City’s 2020 Climate Vulnerability As- sessment, changes in climate, such as higher average temperatures and increased storm frequency and intensity, can intensify public health stressors. These climate change impacts endanger public health and safety by affecting the air we breathe, the weather we experience, our food and water sources, and our interactions with the built and natural environments. As the climate continues to change, the risks to human health continue to grow. In the same way local governments and the health care industry promotes healthy behaviors such as eating right and exercising; agencies should recognize the relationship between climate action, environmental stewardship and community health since the health of our environment affects public health. Edina Vulnerable Populations Risk Sensitivity Chart The following identification of Edina population climate vulnerabilities is excerpted from the Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment. Please see that report for additional information: (https://cutt.ly/dvHHyMU). 08 S e c t i o n Climate Health and Safety Click here to return to TOC 8-2 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Climate Health and Safety Health Risks to Population Review of Climate Risks for the City of Edina A “Climate Risk” is the potential for negative conse- quences and outcomes for human health, systems, or communities. The most common way of evalu- ating the level of risk associated is “likelihood of Oc- currence” x “Impact Level” or vulnerability, and con- sidered within the likely timeframe of occurrence. Two charts are provided to the right. The first re- views the expected impacts, likelihood of occur- rence, impact level based on Population vulnerability reviewed in the Climate Vulnerability Assessment. The second reviews the infrastructural and institu- tional Climate Risks to the Community. Each chart includes a brief review of the expected impacts. Priority Climate Risks for Edina The priority climate risks to the population of Edina include Flooding, Nutrition Security, Extreme Heat, and Vector Borne Disease Impacts while the priority climate risks to infrastructure/institutions include Land Use Planning, Buildings, Roads, Energy, and Agriculture and Forestry impacts. See Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment for more information: https://cutt.ly/dvHHyMU . Climate Risks to Infrastructure and Institutions 8-3 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Climate Health and Safety Strategic Goal Recommendations— Community Wide Based on the reviews outlined in this section, we recommend the City of Edina explore es- tablishing the following Climate Health and Safety Strategic Goals: HS 1: Educate, engage, and empower the public on health and safety risks of climate change impacts. HS 2 : Assist the City’s Extreme Heat, Air Quality, Flooding, Power/Infrastructure Fail- ure, and Food Insecurity vulnerable population in preparing for and mitigating climate change impacts. HS 3: Establish and update plans to address climate risks and impacts. HS 4: Strengthen community response capacity and support networks. 8-4 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals 9-1 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Climate Economy Climate change and the economy are inexorably linked. Left unabated, the impacts of human- made climate change through the end of this century will cost the United States billions of dollars. According to a 2019 study by two EPA scientists, the difference in economic impact between the mid-range climate model (RPC6) and the high range climate model (RPC8.5) may account for as much as $224 billion in economic impact annually by 2090. According to a 2019 World Bank report on trends in carbon pricing, a carbon price range of $40-$80 per ton is necessary as of 2020 to reach the goals set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, while other studies have placed the full cost of carbon at $200-$400 per ton. Using the calculation outlined in Section 10 of the Edina Climate Vul- nerability Assessment (Projected localized annual economic impacts of climate change divided by annual community-wide GHG emissions), an estimate minimum localized cost for carbon is $47 per metric ton. The economy is also directly linked to climate action as well. One common concern is that climate action damages the economy. However, climate action today avoids the future costs associated with unmitigated climate change. Further evidence is building a clear case that acting on climate change, and reducing fossil fuel emissions can be done without weakening the economy. Since 2013, Edina has seen community-wide GHG emissions drop 1.5% while during that same period the community’s GDP has increased 16.8%. Climate Action and Economic Development Rather than weakening the economy, climate action can support economic development. Transi- tioning away from fossil fuel use, improvements to public transit systems, and growth of local food industries are all, in part, a transition to local energy and labor sources. These transitions represent opportunities for communities to reduce the community wealth that is being exported and in- crease the percentage of community wealth that remains in the community in the form of local jobs. Additionally, many of the jobs potentials in Climate Action redirect funds away from less la- bor intensive (but more material resource intensive) sectors of the economy to support greater overall employment combined with less resource utilization. In general, economic opportunities include: 09 S e c t i o n Climate Economy Click here to return to TOC 9-2 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Jobs Increases in City-wide energy efficiency, fuel switching, and renewable energy installations all require energy retrofits and renovations within existing building stock. This construction effort provides new opportunities for construction laborers, efficiency experts, and testing agents. The specialty niche also provides opportunities for new businesses to be created to address the de- mand. A study by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy illustrated that a $15 million investment in energy efficient City facilities, when compared against “business-as-usual”, would increase local employment by 45 jobs in year one and have on-going impacts creating up to 20 additional jobs annually for 20 years. For the City of Edina, a program increasing residential energy efficiency targeting households constructed before 1980 (similar to potential outlined in the Buildings and Energy section of this report) and achieving upgrades for 100 households annually could result in 5 jobs or more. Simi- larly, a program increasing commercial building energy efficiency combined with a program fo- cusing on commercial building retrocommissioning and achieving a coverage of 2-5% of the com- mercial building stock annually could result in up to 12 jobs. Public Transit Jobs Transit is key to both creating jobs and increasing access to existing jobs. A study by Smart Growth America found that investments in public transit created almost twice the number of jobs than the same level of spending in auto-centric transportation systems. Cities with better public transportation systems also have lower levels of unemployment, and greater reductions in unemployment, among young people - likely because public transit links areas with entry-level jobs to neighborhoods where people live. According to the American Public Transit Association, for every $1 invested in public transportation, $4 in economic returns are generated. Investing in more buses and drivers both creates jobs directly and makes local labor markets function better. Economic Savings Investments in energy efficiency, public transportation, renewable energy, and many other cli- mate action strategies ultimately result in cost savings for community businesses and residents. These savings contribute to an increase in the quality of life for residents and will largely be spent within the community on goods and services, providing indirect and induced economic development potential for the City. Climate Economy Graphic Source: American Council for an Energy- Efficient Economy 9-3 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Climate Economy Unemployment in Edina According to the US Census, in 2019, citywide unemployment averaged 3.2%. When viewed at the census block level, portions of the City had unemployment levels as high as 17%. Since that time, the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have almost cer- tainly increased those numbers— particularly among the most vulnera- ble populations in the city. As noted earlier, the potential of local job crea- tion associated with climate action strategies may provide a meaningful avenue for increasing employment opportunities and quality of life po- tential among Edina’s most vulnerable. Strategic Goal Recommendations— Community Wide Based on the reviews outlined in this section, we recommend the City of Edina explore es- tablishing the following Climate Economy Strategic Goals: CE 1: Capture local economic potential of climate action. CE 2: Increase workforce development for the climate economy. CE 3: Build marketplace climate resilience. CE 4: Establish sustainable financing for the City’s climate action implementation. 9-4 Edina Climate Action Baseline and Strategic Goals Prepared by: 2515 White Bear Ave, A8 Suite 177 Maplewood, MN 55109 Contact: Ted Redmond tredmond@paleBLUEdot.llc