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Home My WebLink AboutEdina Climate Vulnerability Baseline Assessment City of Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment March 2021 Revised 4/29/21 Prepared by: Table of Contents Section 1: Introduction Section 2: Climate Change In The Midwest Section 3: Climate Change In Minnesota Section 4: Local Climate Change Section 5: City On The Move Section 6: Climate Risks To Population Section 7: Climate Impact Multipliers Heat Island Tree Canopy Flood Vulnerabilities Water Stress Section 8: Climate Resilience Indicators Economic Stress Health EPA Environmental Justice Screen EPA Social Vulnerability Index MPCA Environmental Justice Screen Housing Burden Section 9: Vulnerable Populations Children Older Adults Individuals With Disabilities Individuals Under Economic Stress People of Color and Limited English Speakers At-Risk Workers Individuals with Possible Food Insecurity Composite Vulnerabilities Comparison of Vulnerable Populations Section 10: Findings Appendix 1 Local Climate Risks To Environment Appendix 2 Climate Adaptive Tree Species Appendix 3 Glossary of Climate Adaptation and Vulnerability Terms Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 1-1 01 Introduction S e c t i o n Introduction Climate change is a global phenomenon that creates local impacts. Two changes to Minnesota’s climate are occurring already: shorter winters with fewer cold extremes, and more heavy and extreme precipitation. In the future, there is rela- tively high confidence that those two changes will continue to increase in frequency and intensity, and also that Minneso- ta will begin to experience heat extremes beyond the historical variability of the climate. There is somewhat lower confi- dence that drought, and also tornadoes, hail and straight-line wind will increase in frequency and/or intensity as a result of climate change in the future. While the science behind climate change is complex, many of the solutions to reducing impacts are already a part of Edina municipal government expertise. In many instances, responding to climate change does not require large scale changes to municipal operations, but simply requires adapting existing plans and polices to incorporate knowledge about changing levels of risk across key areas such as public health, infrastructure planning and emergency management. Incorporating this knowledge not only protects our communities from growing risk, but climate adaptation strategies can also increase jobs, improve public health and the overall livability of our communities. Strategies which strengthen resili- ence in time of emergency also help communities thrive even more during good times. City of Edina MN Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 1-4 Area 15.96 sq mi Parks, Recreation, & Preserves 1,550 Acres Population (2019) 51,746 Density 3,349.2 / sq mi Households 21,816 Employment 42,386 Population History Population by Race Households by Type Population Density by Census Tract (Source: US Census Bureau) (Source: World Population Review, US Census Bureau) (Source: World Population Review, US Census Bureau) Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 1-3 Introduction What is Climate Change Vulnerability? According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), vulnerability is “the degree to which a system is sus- ceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes”. Vulner- ability is a function of both impacts (the effects of climate change and variability on a given system or resource) as well as adaptive capacity (the ability of the economy, infrastructure, resources, or population to effectively adapt to such events and changes). Why Study Climate Change Vulnerability? Increases in the global surface temperature and changes in precipitation levels and patterns are expected to continue and intensify for decades, regardless of mitigation strategies currently being implemented. In turn, these changes in climate have impacts on the economy and health of local communities. Weather and climate shape our economy. Temperature impacts everything from the amount of energy consumed to heat and cool homes and offices to the ability for some workers to work outside. Temperature and precipitation levels not only determine how much water we have to drink, but also the performance of entire economic sectors, from agriculture to recreation and tourism. Extreme weather events, like tornadoes, hail storms, droughts, and inland flooding can be particu- larly damaging. In the last ten years alone, extreme weather events have cost Minnesota and the Midwest $96 billion in damage and resulted in 440 deaths. (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information). In addition, climate conditions effect the quality of life and life safety of communities – particularly those populations es- pecially sensitive to climate impacts. Extreme weather events linked to climate change have the potential to harm com- munity member health in numerous ways. Rising temperatures, for example, can result in a longer-than-average allergy season, erode air quality. Longer growing seasons can prolong the stay and increase the population of insects increasing the risk of vector-borne diseases. Climate impacts also exacerbate additional economic challenges that can directly im- pact the ability of at-risk populations to cope with the additional risks exacerbated by climate conditions while creating more exposure to dangerous living/working conditions and poor nutrition. Strengthening community resilience is rooted in an on-going assessment of potential vulnerabilities, and anticipating po- tential climate impacts. Climate adaptation focuses on development and implementation of strategies to address those vulnerabilities, and communication and outreach to the members of the community. Weather vs Climate The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short peri- od of time, and climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over rela- tively long periods of time. (NASA) 1-4 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment About This Report This Climate Vulnerability Assessment has been developed in conjunction with the City of Edina Climate Action Plan project effort. This report seeks to: • Increase awareness of potential climate impacts and population vulnerabilities. • Increase inclusion of climate adaptation dialogue within City planning and deci- sion making processes. • Strengthen adaptive capacity based on the best available information on re- gional climate change projections and impacts. • Outline priority risks and vulnerabilities in support of establishing strategies and actions in the City’s future Climate Plan- ning efforts. • Prevent or reduce the risks to popula- tions most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The Population Vulnerability Assessment portion of this report describes how climate affects the region today, the changes and impacts expected over the coming decades, and identifies population vulnerabilities within the community. Photo: Kettle River, Minnesota (via UnSplash) 2-1 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 02 Climate Change In The Midwest S e c t i o n 2-2 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment Climate Change in The Midwest According to the United States National Climate Assessment on the Midwest Region: (3rd National Climate Assessment, 2014 and 4th National Climate Assessment, 2018) In general, climate change will tend to amplify existing climate-related risks to people, ecosystems, and in- frastructure in the Midwest. Direct effects of increased heat stress, flooding, drought, and late spring freezes on natural and managed ecosystems may be multiplied by changes in pests and disease prevalence, in- creased competition from non-native or opportunistic native species, ecosystem disturbances, land-use change, landscape fragmentation, atmospheric pollutants, and economic shocks such as crop failures or re- duced yields due to extreme weather events. These added stresses, when taken collectively, are projected to alter the ecosystem and socioeconomic patterns and processes in ways that most people in the region would consider detrimental. Much of the region’s fisheries, recreation, tourism, and commerce depend on the Great Lakes and expansive northern forests, which already face pollution and invasive species pressure that will be exacerbated by climate change. Most of the region’s population lives in cities, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change related flooding and life-threatening heat waves because of aging infrastructure and other factors. Climate change may also augment or intensify other stresses on vegetation encountered in urban environments, including increased atmospheric pollution, heat island effects, a highly variable water cycle, and frequent exposure to new pests and diseases. Some cities in the region are already engaged in the process of capacity building or are actively building resilience to the threats posed by climate change. The region’s highly energy-intensive economy emits a disproportionately large amount of the gases responsible for warming the climate. Primary Issues for Midwest 1: Impacts to Agriculture Increases will continue in growing seasons, likely boosting some crop yields. Increases in extreme weath- er, number of very-hot days, flooding, and days without precipitation will likely decrease other yields. Overall, Midwest productivity is expected to decrease through the century. 2: Forest Composition Rising air and soil temperatures, and variability in soil moisture will stress tree species. Forest compositions will change as habitats are driven Northward by as much as 300 miles. Due to these ecosystem disrup- tions, the region’s forests may cease acting as a carbon sink, exacerbating greenhouse gas emission impacts. 3: Public Health Risks Increased incident rate of days over 95 degrees, and hu- midity are anticipated to contribute to degradations in air and water quality. Each of these will increase public health risk, especially for at-risk populations. 4: Increased Rainfall and Flooding The frequency and size of extreme rainfall events and flooding has increased over the last century. In addition, the number of days without precipitation have increased. These trends are expected to continue, causing erosion, declining water quality, and impacts on human health, and infrastructure. Emissions Trends by Mid-Century (2040 - 2070) According to the US National Climate Assessment, based on current emissions trends, by mid-century (2040 - 2070) the Midwest region is projected to experience a climate that is… 2-3 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment Annual Average Temperature Annual Days Above 95° Annual Frost-Free Days Annual Cooling Degree Days (CDD) Hotter… (Source: United States National Climate Assessment) Edina Edina Edina Edina 2-4 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment Emissions Trends by Mid-Century (2040 - 2070) According to the US National Climate Assessment, based on current emissions trends, by mid-century (2040 - 2070) the Midwest region is projected to experience a climate that is… … and Drought Annual Precipitation Annual Heavy Precipitation Wettest 5-Day Period Consecutive Dry Days Hotter… With More Rain (Source: United States National Climate Assessment) Edina Edina Edina Edina 3-1 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 03 Climate Change In Minnesota S e c t i o n Climate Change In Minnesota Annual Rainfall Heavier precipitation is a signature of climate change. For every 1°F of temperature increase, the atmosphere can effec- tively hold 4 percent more water vapor. As the world warms from the increase in greenhouse gases, the amount of evap- oration also increases from oceans, lakes, rivers, and soils. The extra water vapor is available to produce additional rain and snow, creating an environment ripe for heavy precipitation events. According to the Minneso- ta Department of Natural Resources, Heavy rains are now more common in Min- nesota and more intense than at any time on record. The state has seen dra- matic increases in 1-inch rains, 3-inch rains, and the size of the heaviest rainfall of the year. Since 2000, Minnesota has seen a significant uptick in dev- astating, large-area ex- treme rainstorms as well. Rains that historically would have been in the 98th percentile annually (the largest 2%) have become more common. Between 1951 and 2012, total precipitation amounts increased by over 20% (5.5 inches) in the Twin Cities. Mega-Rain Events Throughout its history, Minnesota has had 15 “Mega-rain” events. Seven of those storms have occurred since 2000, illustrating a in- creased rate of occur- rence. Mega-Rain events represent a strain on stormwater infrastruc- ture as they deliver a minimum of 13.9 billion cubic feet of rainwater over a very short time. 3-2 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment (Graphic: Jaime Chrismar MPRnews.org) 3-3 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment Climate Change In Minnesota Summer Drought in Minnesota By 2050, the severity of widespread summer drought in Minneso- ta is projected to see an increase of 300 percent—with threat being calculated by severity of drought weighted by the State’s estimated drought vulnerable population. With this increase, by 2050, Minnesota is projected to be ranked 2nd for drought sever- ity threat within the United States by 2030 and 5th by 2050 —an increase from its current ranking as 8th. Annual Temperatures Annual temperatures have increased throughout Minnesota over the last few decades. Typically, all seasons are warming across the US, with winter temperatures increasing the fastest. Minne- sota is no exception to this trend. Temperatures have been warming in Minnesota since the 1980’s with the average annual temperature increasing approximately 1.62° F. Temperature in- creases have been more sharply felt in the winter season with an increase of 3.57 F. Extreme Heat Threat in Minnesota By 2050, Minnesota is projected to see an increase in the Extreme Heat Threat of six fold. With this increase, by 2050, Minnesota is projected to be ranked 28th for extreme heat threat within the United States. Minnesota Source: Climate Central Minnesota Source: Climate Central Warming Trends in Minnesota 3-4 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment Climate Change In Minnesota Inland Flooding Threat in Minnesota Minnesota already suffers from annual flooding. The increase in heavy precipitation events over the last 60 years has coincided with an increase in flood disaster declarations in the State by decade. The projected increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events is likely to result in increasing risks from flooding. All Disaster Declarations in Minnesota Since 1953 Minnesota Flood Disaster Declarations by Decade 1960s: 6 1970s: 8 1980s: 1 1990s: 2 2000s: 2 2010s: 5 Source: FEMA 3-5 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment Climate Change In Minnesota Changing USDA Zones In addition to warmer weather, Minnesota is experiencing less spring snow cover and earlier thaw dates resulting in more rapidly warming soil. The cumulative effects is a shift of USDA Hardiness zones to the North. In 1990 Central Minnesota had Zones 3 and 4, today it has Zones 4 and 5. Trees Moving North Maple forests, among other species, are moving northward, with the densest forests now occuring in the “arrowhead” section of the State rather than central region. Beyond the impacts on the ecosystem, this shift is expected to impact Min- nesota’s Maple syrup production in the coming years. (Graphic: Jaime Chrismar MPRnews.org) Zone (Graphic: Arbor Day Foundation) 3-6 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment Climate Change In Minnesota Human Allergies With the shift in hardiness zones and increasing growing season, increases in pollen quantity and duration have been experienced and project- ed to continue. Beyond inflam- mation and irritation associat- ed with allergic reactions, some studies indicate pollen can affect the cardiovascular and pulmonary system. Since 1995, the State of Minne- sota has experienced an in- crease in allergy season of over 21 days. (Graphic: Jaime Chrismar MPRnews.org) Vector Borne Disease Vector borne diseases are spread through insects and are highly sensitive to climatic factors. Warmer weather influences sur- vival and reproduction rates of vectors, in turn influencing the intensity of vector activity throughout the year. The high levels of disease cases from mosquitoes and ticks report- ed for the State of Minnesota (to right) may be an illustration of the impacts of a warming climate. As the region’s climate is projected to continue to warm with an in- crease in growing season, these high vector borne disease case trends may increase. (Graphic: US CDC) 3-7 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment Climate Change In Minnesota Severe Weather - Observed Tornadoes in Minnesota By May of 2019, the US had experienced one of its worst tornado outbreaks of the past decade, with more than 500 re- ported over 30 days, with the total year to date over 200 higher than average. Research by Proceedings of The National Academies of Science of The United States of America, like the report “Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environ- ments in response to greenhouse forcing” by Noah S. Diffenbaugh, et al, has suggested that climate change will create conditions more favorable to the formation of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. The chart to the right shows the path and numbers of observed tornadoes across the US since 1950. Overall, the number of tornadoes appears to be in- creasing, however, the increase is currently observed only in weaker category storms. The study “Report Increased variability of torna- do occurrence in the United States” by Harold E. Brooks, et al found that there has been consider- ably more clustering of tornadoes in recent dec- ades. In other words, there are more days in which multiple tornadoes occur, but fewer over- all days with tornadoes. In another study “Spatial trends in United States tornado frequen- cy” by Vittorio Gensini, the frequency trends of tornado environments were mapped, showing portions of Minnesota with a significant upward trend. Tornadoes in Minnesota Since 1950 Records by NOAA, charted below and mapped to the right, show the number of tornadoes in Northeast Minnesota in- creasing since 1950. (Sources: NOAA, Proceedings of The National Academies of Science of The United States of America, Carbon Brief, Climate Central, UStornadoes.com, Spatial Trends in United States Tornado Frequency ) Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 4-1 S e c t i o n 04 Local Climate Change Local Climate Change The climate in the City of Edina has already changed. From 1980 through 2018, the City has experienced an increase in annual aver- age temperature, an increase in the number of days above 95 de- grees, an increase in the number of heavy rain events, and a de- crease in the number of days below 32 degrees. Some of the most significant changes in the climate relate to varia- bility. Climate variability can be seen in the changes in annual pre- cipitation for Edina. Overall annual precipitation has increased, however, this increase is not evenly distributed throughout the year. Fall and Winter precipitation have increased up to 15.5%, while Spring and Summer precipitation have remained nearly un- changed. (Sources: US Climate Resilience Toolkit, Climate Science Special Report, University of Michigan Climate Center, US NOAA, Union of Concerned Scientists) The City’s climate is anticipated to continue to warm through this century and beyond. Precipitation is anticipated to likely increase in all seasons particularly in the Spring and Fall. The primary changes to climate characteristics for the City include: • Warmer annual average temperatures with a more signifi- cant warming in winter months. • Increase in extreme heat days. • Increase in heavy rain fall events, with increase in flood potential. • Increase in time between precipitation with increase in drought potential. • Greater variability in temperature and precipitation trends. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 4-2 Looking Back From 1980 through 2018, Edina has experienced: Increase in annual average temperature: Increase in annual precipitation: Increase in heavy precipitation Increase in Days above 95: Decrease in Days below 32: Increase in growing season: 1.62° 4.3% 34% 2 days -8 days +9 days Storm Weather Events Number of Events Reported In Hennepin County: From April 2000 to March 2010: From April 2010 to March 2020: Average Annual Storm Weather Damage 2000-2020: (source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information) 405 events 438 events an increase of 8% $21,600,000 + 0.3 deaths annually Looking Forward By 2100, Edina can expect: Increase in annual average temperature: Increase in annual precipitation: Increase in heavy precipitation Increase in Days above 95: Decrease in Days below 32: Increase in growing, allergy, and insect season: Increase in Air Conditioning Demand: 6-12° 30% +50 days -45 days +43 days -9% to+15% Increased Seasonal Variability 278% To serve the same size population, the projected increase in air conditioning demand would require an increase in community-wide electricity consumption of: 70% Mean Daily Maximum Temperature This chart shows observed aver- age daily maximum temperatures for Hennepin County from 1950- 2010, the range of projections for the historical period, and the range of projections for two possi- ble futures through 2100. Maxi- mum temperature serves as one measure of comfort and safety for people and for the health of plants and animals. When maxi- mum temperature exceeds partic- ular thresholds, people can be- come ill and transportation and energy infrastructure may be stressed. Days with Maximum Tem- perature Above 95°F This chart shows observed aver- age number of days with tem- peratures above 95°F for Henne- pin County from 1950-2010, the range of projections for the historical period, and the range of projections for two possible futures through 2100. The total number of days per year with maximum temperature above 95°F is an indicator of how often very hot conditions occur. De- pending upon humidity, wind, and access to air-conditioning, humans may feel very uncom- fortable or experience heat stress or illness on very hot days. How To Read These Charts Starting from the left and moving towards the right, the dark gray bars which are oriented vertically indicate observed historic values for each year. The horizontal line from which bars extend shows the county average from 1960-1989. Bars that extend above the line show years that were above average. Bars that extend below the line were below average. The lighter gray band, or area, shows the range of climate model data for the historical period – in other words, the lighter gray area shows the range of weather for the historic period. Starting from the left and moving right, the red toned band, or area, shows the range of future projections assuming global greenhouse gas emissions continue increasing at current rates. The darker red line shows the median of these projections. For planning purposes, people who have a low tolerance for risk often focus on this scenario. The blue toned band, or area, shows the range of future projections for a scenario in which global greenhouse gas emissions stop in- creasing and stabilize. The darker blue line shows the median of these projections. Though the median is no more likely to predict an actual future than other projections in the range, both the red and blue lines help to highlight the projected trend in each scenario. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 4-3 Source: US Climate Resilience Toolkit Source: US Climate Resilience Toolkit Mean Daily Maximum Temperature for Hennepin County (1950-2010 observed, 2010-2100 projected) Days with Minimum Tem- perature Below 32°F This chart shows observed aver- age number of days with tem- peratures below 32°F for Hennepin County from 1950- 2010, the range of projections for the historical period, and the range of projections for two possible futures through 2100. The total number of days per year with minimum tempera- ture below 32°F is an indicator of how often cold days occur. Winter recreation businesses depend on days with below- freezing temperatures to main- tain snow pack. Additionally, some plants require a period of days below freezing before they can begin budding or blooming. Cooling Degree Days This chart shows observed aver- age degree cooling days for Hennepin County from 1950- 2010, the range of projections for the historical period, and the range of projections for two possible futures through 2100. The number of cooling degree days per year reflects the amount of energy people use to cool buildings during the warm season. Cooling degree days are calcu- lated using 65°F degrees as the base building temperature. On a day when the average outdoor temperature is 85°F, reducing the indoor temperature by 20 degrees over 1 day requires 20 degrees of cooling multiplied by 1 day, or 20 cooling degree days. How To Read These Charts Starting from the left and moving towards the right, the dark gray bars which are oriented vertically indicate observed historic values for each year. The horizontal line from which bars extend shows the county average from 1960-1989. Bars that extend above the line show years that were above average. Bars that extend below the line were below average. The lighter gray band, or area, shows the range of climate model data for the historical period – in other words, the lighter gray area shows the range of weather for the historic period. Starting from the left and moving right, the red toned band, or area, shows the range of future projections assuming global greenhouse gas emissions continue increasing at current rates. The darker red line shows the median of these projections. For planning purposes, people who have a low tolerance for risk often focus on this scenario. The blue toned band, or area, shows the range of future projections for a scenario in which global greenhouse gas emissions stop in- creasing and stabilize. The darker blue line shows the median of these projections. Though the median is no more likely to predict an actual future than other projections in the range, both the red and blue lines help to highlight the projected trend in each scenario. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 4-4 Days with Minimum Temperature Below 32°F for Hennepin County (1950-2010 observed, 2010-2100 projected) Cooling Degree Days for Hennepin County (1950-2010 observed, 2010-2100 projected) Source: US Climate Resilience Toolkit Source: US Climate Resilience Toolkit Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 5-1 05 City On The Move S e c t i o n 5-2 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment City on The Move Projected changes in annual average temperatures and growing seasons will result in a change in the overall climate of Edina. Summertime conditions for mid-twenty first century in Edina are projected to be similar to the conditions currently felt 240- 360 miles or further to the South. According to the University of Michigan Climate Center, by 2040-70 summertime conditions in Edi- na are anticipated to be similar to those today in Distance southward the City of Edina’s climate experience moves every year. Which is equal to moving 12 Miles 173 Feet every day City On The Move State of Minnesota Projected Climate Experience by 2095 University of Massachusetts Amherst Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 5-3 Source: University of Massachusetts Amherst based on data provided by K. Hayhoe and D Wuebbles. City On The Move Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 5-4 Edina Climate Peers—2100 City Climate Peers experience current conditions which match the projected conditions for Edina by the year 2100. Summer- time conditions in Edina, Minnesota in this period can be antic- ipated to be similar to those currently experienced by Denison Texas, over 850 miles to the South. (Source US Climate Assessment, Climate Central) City of Edina Projected Climate Experience by 2100 (Source: Climate Central) Edina, MN (Summer 2020) Denison, Denison, TX (Summer 2100) Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 6-1 06 Climate Risks to The Population S e c t i o n Climate Risks to The Population The projected changes to the community’s climate in the coming decades represent potential risks to resi- dents. These risks are particularly acute in populations especially vulnerable to them such as children under 5, elders over 65, and those with disabilities – see Vulnerable Populations section for more information. Below are some of the more significant risks to the community’s population: Extreme Weather / Temperature: Certain groups of people are more at risk of stress, health impacts, or death related to Extreme Weather events including heat stress, tornadoes, wind storms, lightning, wildfires, winter storms, hail storms, and cold waves. The risks related to extreme weather events include traumatic personal injury (tornadoes, storms), carbon monoxide poisoning (related to power outages), asthma exacerbations (wildfires, heat stress), hypo- thermia/ frostbite (cold waves, winter storms), and mental health impacts. Vulnerability to heat stress can be increased by certain variables including the presence of health conditions like diabetes and heart conditions; demographic and socioeconomic factors (e.g. aged 65 years and older living alone); and land cover (e.g. Low percentage tree canopy cover). Studies of heat waves and mortality in the United States demonstrate that increased temperatures or periods of extended high temperatures have in- creased heat-related deaths.* During heat waves, calls to emergency medical services and hospital admissions have also increased. According to the US National Climate and Health Assessment: “While it is intuitive that extremes can have health impacts such as death or injury during an event (for example, drowning during floods), health impacts can also occur before or after an extreme event as indi- viduals may be involved in activities that put their health at risk, such as disaster preparation and post- event cleanup. Health risks may also arise long after the event, or in places outside the area where the event took place, as a result of damage to property, destruction of assets, loss of infrastructure and public services, social and economic impacts, environmental degradation, and other factors. Extreme events also pose unique health risks if multiple events occur simultaneously or in succession in a given location, but these issues of cumulative or compounding impacts are still emerging in the literature.” In addition, extreme weather can cause economic stress. Property damage, business closure, crop loss, job loss, and employment “down time” can all be caused by extreme storms, weather, and temperatures. These economic impacts can affect individuals, families, businesses, and communities at large. According to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, the leading cause of electric transmission outages (in terms of electric outage count) in Minnesota is “Severe Weather - Thunderstorm”. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 6-2 Increased Risk of Extreme Heat Increased Risk of Extreme Cold Caused by Jetstream “Wobble” Graphic Source: Climate Central Graphic Source: NASA * The Impact of Heat Waves on Emergency Department Admissions in Charlottesville, Virginia, U.S.A. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018; Mapping Community Determinants of Heat Vulnerability, Environmental Health Perspectives, Volume 117, Issue 11 Climate Risks to The Population Extreme Weather / Temperature (continued) Increased Risk of Extreme Cold Though global temperatures are rising, there is evidence that the region is at risk of increased likelihood of ex- treme cold temperatures during winter “cold snaps” due to variations in the jet stream caused by warming ocean temperatures and a warming Arctic region. The jet stream—a powerful river of wind high in the atmos- phere—shapes the Northern Hemisphere's weather, and it plays a key role in weather extremes. This powerful river of wind transports moisture and moves masses of cold and warm air and storm systems along its path. The jet stream is driven partly by the temperature contrast between masses of cold air over the North Pole and warmer air near the equator. Climate change has led to faster warming in the Arctic than in the temperate zones, reducing the temperature differences between the two regions and weakening the jet stream. As the jet stream becomes weaker, it has periods of “wobble” in which it coils much more significantly dipping far to the South. As the jet stream coils southward it brings bitter cold arctic air southward along with it. Studies indicate that as arctic temperatures continue to rise, increases in jet stream “wobble” and extreme winter cold snaps may increase in occurrence. Flood and Drought Vulnerability According to the latest National Climate Assessment, the frequency of heavy precipitation events has already increased for the nation as a whole as well as for Minnesota specifically. These heavy rain events are projected to increase throughout Minnesota. Increases in both extreme precipitation and total precipitation have con- tributed to increases in severe flooding events in certain regions. Floods are the second deadliest of all weather -related hazards in the United States. In addition to the immediate health hazards associated with extreme precipitation events when flooding oc- curs, other hazards can often appear once a storm has passed. Elevated waterborne disease outbreaks have been reported in the weeks following heavy rainfall, although other variables may affect these associations. Water intrusion into buildings can result in mold contamination that manifests later, leading to indoor air quali- ty problems. Populations living in damp indoor environments experience increased prevalence of asthma and other upper respiratory tract symptoms, such as coughing and wheezing, as well as lower respiratory tract in- fections such as pneumonia, respiratory syncytial virus, and pneumonia. Flooding causes economic stress. Property damage, business closure, crop loss, job loss, and employment “down time” can all be caused by extreme storms, weather, and temperatures. These economic impacts can affect individuals, families, businesses, and communities at large. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 6-3 By 2050, Minnesota is projected to see: An increase of flood risk by more than 20% As well as a 300% increase in its index of the severity of wide- spread drought. (Source: US Climate Resilience Toolkit, Climate Central; Graphic Source: Climate Central) Climate Risks to The Population Air Quality Impacts According to the published literature, air pollution is associated with premature death, increased rates of hospitaliza- tion for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, adverse birth outcomes, and lung cancer. Air quality is indexed (AQI) by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Minnesota Pollution Control Board to provide a simple, uniform way to report daily air quality conditions. Minnesota AQI numbers are determined by hourly measure- ments of five pollutants: fine particles (PM2.5), ground-level ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and carbon monoxide (CO). The levels of all of these pollutants can be effected by climate impacts as well as the greenhouse gas emissions which are driving Minnesota’ changing climate impacts. These pollutants have a range of potential health impacts. Ozone exposure may lead to a number of adverse health effects such as shortness of breath, chest pain when inhaling deeply, wheezing and coughing, temporary decreases in lung function, and lower respiratory tract infections. Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (also known as PM2.5 ) is correlated with a number of adverse health effects. In fact, each 10 µg/m³ elevation in PM2.5 is associated with an 8% increase in lung cancer mortality, a 6% increase in cardiopulmonary mortality, and a 4% increase in death from general causes. The annual average of PM2.5 provides an indication of the long-term trends in overall burden, relevant to the long-term health effects. Increased surface temperatures are known to increase ground level ozone levels. The projected Minnesota climate change impacts of extreme heat, changes in precipitation, drought and wild fires can all cause increases in fine particulate matter, which in turn, can contribute to respiratory illness particularly in populations vulnerable to them. The US EPA designates counties with unhealthy levels of air pollution as “Non attainment” areas and areas which are on the edge of unhealthy levels “maintenance” areas. The State of Minnesota has had multiple jurisdictions desig- nated as “non attainment” areas. However some of these areas have re-met federal air quality requirements and are now maintenance areas. Air quality issues currently being addressed in State of Minnesota implementation plans include Carbon Monoxide, Sulfur Dioxide, and Particulate Matter. For current and forecasted air quality throughout the state visit: https://cfpub.epa.gov/airnow. You can also download Plume Lab’s free mobile phone air quality monitoring app: https://plumelabs.com/en/air/ Climate change is expected to affect air quality through several pathways, including production and potency of aller- gens and increase regional concentrations of ozone, fine particles, and dust. Some of these pollutants can directly cause respiratory disease or exacerbate existing conditions in susceptible populations, such as children or the elderly. Other air quality issues with health considerations include allergens, pollen, and smoke from wildfires (traces suffi- cient to cause respiratory impacts are capable of traveling great distances). Each of these are anticipated to be in- creased with climate change. Projected Change in Temperature, Ozone, and Ozone-Related Premature Deaths in 2030 Projected changes in average daily maximum temperature (degrees Fahrenheit), summer average maximum daily 8- hour ozone (parts per billion), and excess ozone-related deaths (incidences per year by county) in the year 2030 rela- tive to the year 2000. (Source: US Climate Resilience Toolkit) Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 6-4 Source: US Climate Resilience Toolkit Climate Risks to The Population Vector-Borne Diseases Vector-Borne diseases are diseases spread by agents such as ticks and mosquitoes. The projected climate change impacts in this region are anticipated to increase the spread of vector borne diseases such as West Nile virus, and Lyme disease by altering conditions that affect the development and dynamics of the disease vectors and the pathogens they carry. Rising global temperatures can increase the geographic range of disease- carrying insects, while increased rainfall, flooding and humidity creates more viable areas for vector breeding and allows breeding to occur more quickly. In addition, Minnesota’ lengthening growing season and warming winters will increase the population of vector carrying insects as well as open the region up to new species. Food Insecurity and Food-borne Diseases According to former U.S. agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack, climate change is likely to destabilize cropping sys- tems, interrupt transportation networks and trigger food shortages and spikes in food cost. According to the US National Climate Assessment for the Midwestern states: “In the next few decades, longer growing seasons and rising carbon dioxide levels will increase yields of some crops, though those benefits will be progressively offset by extreme weather events. Though adaptation options can reduce some of the detrimental effects, in the long term, the combined stresses associated with climate change are expected to decrease agricultural productivity.” Nutritious food is a basic necessity of life, and failure to obtain sufficient calories, macronutrients (fats, pro- teins, carbohydrates), and micronutrients (vitamins, minerals) can result in illness and death. While malnutri- tion and hunger are typically problems in the developing world, Minnesota still has significant populations affected by insufficient food resources and under-nutrition. Food can be a source of food-borne illnesses, re- sulting from eating spoiled food or food contaminated with microbes, chemical residues or toxic substances. The potential effects of climate change on food-borne illness, nutrition, and security are mostly indirect but represent risks, especially for vulnerable populations. Some of the climate impacts which may increase food insecurity and food-borne diseases in Minnesota include: • Extreme weather events and changes in temperature and precipitation can damage or destroy crops and interrupt the transportation and delivery of food • Changes in agricultural ranges, practices and changing environmental conditions can reduce the availa- bility and nutritional content of food supplies. For example, an increase in the use of pesticides leads to a decrease in nutritional content of food. • Extreme weather events, such as flooding, drought, and wildfires can contaminate crops and fisheries with metals, chemicals, and toxicants released into the environment. • Degraded soil health and soil erosion, exacerbated by increasing drought/flood cycles and increasing storm intensities. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 6-5 Climate Risks to The Population Water Quality/Quantity Water risks consist of both water quality as well as water quantity issues. Water quantity issues are clearly linked to precipitation levels and timing, water variability, as well as changes in water demand. Water demand itself can be increased not only by population changes but also as a result of climate changes such as increased temperatures and time frames between rain events which increase demands on water consumption. In addi- tion, water withdraw from ground water sources deplete aquifer capacities. Indirectly, the lack of water can cause pressure on agricultural productivity, increase crop failure, and cause reductions in food supply and in- creases in food prices and food insecurity. As a highly precious resource, all communities should look to in- crease water conservation regardless of the projected water stress levels of their immediate region, while com- munities in regions with a projected increase in water stress should view water conservation as a major long- term priority. Water quality issues can be affected by climate impacts in a number of ways: • Increased precipitation and rapid snow melt can result in flooding, which in turn increases the likeli- hood of water contamination from sources such as sewage as well as contaminants such as chloride, gasoline, oil, chemicals, fertilizers, and pesticides. • Increased air and water temperatures can increase toxic algae blooms, decrease water oxygen levels, and cause changes in fish populations as well as increases in mercury concentrations in fish. • Increased heavy rain events can result in increases in sediment, diminishing water quality. Waterborne Illness Waterborne diseases are caused by a variety of microorganisms, biotoxins, and toxic contaminants, which lead to devastating illnesses such as cholera, schistosomiasis and other gastrointestinal problems. Outbreaks of wa- terborne diseases often occur after a severe precipitation event (rainfall, snowfall). Because climate change increases the severity and frequency of some major precipitation events, communities could be faced with ele- vated disease burden from waterborne diseases. Increased frequency of intense extreme weather events can cause flooding of water and sewage treatment facilities, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases. Infrastructure Failure Extreme weather events, flooding and flash flooding, as well as increasing daily stresses caused by increasing climate variability all represent potential causes of failure of our aging infrastructure. Power outages, road dam- age, bridge collapse, water infrastructure failure - each of these represent significant physical climate risks to the community, especially individuals who are climate vulnerable. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 6-6 Number of Power Outages by State, 2014 Power Outages Minnesota Residents effected by electric outages annually: Average Annual duration of elec- tric outages in Minnesota: Leading cause of electric outages in Minnesota (in terms of num- ber of customers effected): 449,995 46.2 hrs/yr Weather/ falling trees Source: Eaton Blackout Tracker Climate Risks to The Population Infrastructure Failure (continued) Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 6-7 Global Electric Loss Events, 2014 (Source: US DOE, NERC, Eaton; Graphic Source: US DOE) Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 7-1 07 Climate Impact Multipliers S e c t i o n Climate Impact Multipliers As the area’s climate is projected to change (with increased heat, shortened winters, greater varia- bility in weather and precipitation, increased storminess, annual rainfall as well as increased time frames between rain and drought condi- tions) there are physical characteristics of the community which can have a multiplying or miti- gating effect on the impacts of climate vulnerabil- ities. Understanding and tracking the state of these characteristics will help identify some of the climate adaptive strategies appropriate for the City. Climate Impact Multipliers include: Tree Canopy, Impervious Land Cover, Heat Island, and Water Stress. This section will review the general char- acteristics of each of these for the City. In Section 10, these community characteristics will be re-visited in light of the Vulnerable Popu- lation characteristics which will be determined in Section 9. Climate Impact Multipliers Tree Canopy A healthy and extensive tree canopy within developed areas can mitigate the impacts of heat stress, water impacts, in- creased levels of precipitation and drought, and air quality impacts. “Urban forests” deliver a range of environmental, health, and social benefits. Shaded surfaces can be anywhere from 25°F to 45°F cooler than the peak temperatures of unshaded surfaces. Trees cool communities, reduce heating and cooling costs, capture and remove air pollutants includ- ing CO2 from the air; strengthen quality of place and local economies, improve the quality of storm water entering rivers and streams, reduce storm water infrastructure costs, improve social connections, positively contribute to property value, improve pedestrian/recreation experiences, reduce mental fatigue, improve overall quality of life for residents, and pro- vide habitat to support biodiversity. A healthy tree canopy mitigates heat stress in developed areas by providing direct shading on buildings and through tran- spiration cooling. Neighborhoods well shaded by street and yard trees can be up to 6-10 degrees cooler than neighbor- hoods without, reducing overall energy needs. Just three trees properly placed around a house can save up to 30% of en- ergy use. City of Edina Tree Canopy paleBLUEdot has conducted a citywide Tree Canopy, Ground Cover, and Carbon Sequestration study of the City of Edina. This study used the iTree Canopy tool to establish tree canopy and ground cover characteristics throughout the City on a census tract basis. The values established through this study have a standard error of less than 2% with most categories achieving an SE far lower. The Twin City Metro area numbers are based on the 2015 Urban Tree Canopy Assessment Twin Cities Metropolitan Area study produced by the Remote Sensing and Geospatial Analysis Laboratory Department of Forest Resources at the University of Minnesota. The existing tree canopy proportion reported is the aggregated tree canopy area divided by the total area of each city. The potential tree canopy is the proportion of vegetated land (excluding agricul- ture) that could be converted to tree canopy. Planting Climate Adaptive Trees Tree canopies in Minnesota also have some vulnerabilities associated with the current and projected impacts of climate change. Trees have a degree of vulnerability to changes in temperature ranges, precipitation patterns, soil temperature and moisture levels, and changes to winter processes and growing season length. Climate change also introduces the po- tential for introducing new or expanding the life cycle or range of existing tree pests - such as Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) which can cause vast damage to existing tree stock. According to the US Forest service, urban forests are very susceptible to a number of climate change factors including spe- cies invasion, and insect and pathogen attack. These stressors will make it more difficult to preserve or increase canopy cover in Minnesota communities. Conducting tree canopy studies and creating climate adaptive tree canopy policies will help Minnesota communities in adapting to these stressors. Tree species projected to have stressors impacting their health and resilience in the Edina region include Aspen, Birch, Ash, Balsam, and Spruce. Extended drought conditions and warming winters may also negatively impact other species such as Sugar Maple, Red Maple, and Basswood. See Appendix 2 of this report for Climate Adaptive Tree Species by Minnesota region. Climate Adaptive Tree Species should be considered for City tree planting policies and programs. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 7-3 Tree Canopy Existing Additional Tree Tree Canopy Canopy Potential City of Edina*: 35.5% 27.0% Twin City Metro: 26.9% 47.4% *See the 2021 City of Edina Community Wide Tree Survey and Carbon Seques- tration Study for additional information. Climate Impact Multipliers Impervious Land Cover Impervious surfaces, including building and pavement surfaces, typically absorb solar radiation faster than pervious land coverings (grass, trees). This absorbed energy is typically retained throughout the day and then released slowly during the night. Consequently, ambient temperatures near building and paved areas are higher than grasslands and forest areas. The effects of higher levels of impervious surfaces impact not only large cities, but smaller cities and towns as well. Increases in impervious cover can also dramatically increase the impact of so-called 100-year flood events. Typically, floods in areas of high impervious surfaces are short-lived, but extended flooding can stress trees, leading to leaf yellow- ing, defoliation, and crown dieback. If damage is severe, mortality can occur. In addition, flooding can lead to secondary attacks by insect pests and diseases. Some species are more tolerant of flooding than others. See the 2021 City of Edina Community Wide Tree Survey and Carbon Sequestration Study for a breakdown of Citywide impervious surface. Heat Island and Micro Heat Island Residents of cities and town centers are more at risk for heat-related illnesses than rural dwellers. The radiant heat trapped by impervious surfaces and buildings as well as heat generated by building mechanical systems, motorized equip- ment, and vehicles is known as the “Heat Island Effect” . In larger cities, heat island effects create a micro-climate throughout the metro area while occupants of smaller cities and towns can still experience higher temperatures and de- creased air movement due to the effects of surrounding buildings and impervious surfaces in what is sometimes referred to as “Micro Heat Islands” which refers to urban hot spots such as poorly vegetated parking lots, non-reflective roofs and asphalt roads. Both the heat island effect of larger cities and the micro heat islands of smaller cities (or portions of communities) serve to increase the impact of climate change effects in developed areas of all size populations, especially those with low or inter- mittent tree canopy coverage. A developed area’s impervious surface characteristics and tree canopy conditions combine to exacerbate or mitigate the community’s heat island or micro heat island impacts. Due to the heat island effect, developed areas are usually hotter and cool off less at night than non developed areas. Heat islands can increase health risks from extreme heat by increasing the potential maximum temperatures residents are ex- posed to and the length of time that they are exposed to elevated temperatures. The heat island effect can make devel- oped areas one hardiness zone warmer than the surrounding undeveloped area, allowing some more southern species to be planted. In addition to milder winters, however, heat island effects can also make summer temperatures higher, espe- cially near dark pavements and buildings. Thus, some native plants already threatened by climate change impacts could experience increased negative impacts due to heat island and micro-heat island effects. Agricultural Heat Island Research indicates that in rural are- as or regions with significant agri- culture, crops can impact heat is- land effect. Unlike many plants, corn transpires, or sweats, both day and night. Keeping humidity and heat high at night means there is little chance for relief. A University of Minnesota study released in 2016 shows farm crops can increase dew points and heat indices by as much as 5 degrees, while a North- ern Illinois University climatologist David Changnon released a study in 2002 showing that modern-day heat waves probably are worse than a century ago because of crops. See the 2021 City of Edina Community Wide Tree Survey and Carbon Sequestration Study for a breakdown of Citywide heat island impact values. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 7-4 Graphic Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Illustration of Heat Island and Micro-Heat Island Impacts Climate Impact Multipliers Water Stress Water stress occurs when the demand for water exceeds the available amount during a certain period or when poor quali- ty restricts its use. Water stress causes deterioration of fresh water resources in terms of quantity (aquifer over- exploitation, dry rivers, etc.) and quality (eutrophication, organic matter pollution, saline intrusion, etc.). Overall water risks are impacted by projected changes in precipitation levels, seasonal and annual variability, flood and drought vulnera- bilities, increased air and water temperature, and water use demand and supply. Though most of these water stress influences are direct climate impacts, we call Water Stress a climate multiplier because the existence of water stress can greatly increase the overall impact of climate conditions such as extreme heat and over- all population vulnerability. It has economic ramifications for individuals as well as the community as a whole which de- crease resilience. Water stress affects recreational tourism, industrial production, jobs, and income. Water stress in developed areas is directly affected by a community’s impervious surface, tree canopy/ground cover, and heat island characteristics. Higher temperatures and impervious surface run-off lead to increases in toxic algae blooms, more rapid evaporation, reduced water retention within the water table, increased demand for irrigation, and decreased lake/river levels. A review of a community’s water stress includes the overall water stress, overall water risk, and flood vulnerability. Overall water stress measures the ratio of total annual water withdrawals to total available annual renewable supply. This number accounts for upstream consumptive use. Higher values indicate more competition among users. Increases in pro- jected water stress into the future indicate a potential for water shortage, conflict, or management challenge. Overall water risk identifies areas with higher exposure to water-related risks and is an aggregated measure of physical risks related to quantity (flooding, drought, etc), physical risks related to water quality that may impact water availability (such as the percentage of available water that has been previously used and discharged upstream as wastewater where higher values indicate higher dependency on treatment plants and potentially poor water quality in areas that lack suffi- cient treatment infrastructure), and water regulatory and conflict risks. As indicated by the inclusion of upstream conditions in the overall water risk calculation, it is extremely important to note that upstream communities can impact the water risk and stress of downstream communities. Failure to implement ap- propriate storm water management, flood management, and water conservation policies in one community can greatly impact the water stress of communities down stream. As a highly precious resource, all communities should look to in- crease water conservation regardless of the projected water stress levels of their immediate region, while communities in regions with a projected increase in water stress should view water conservation as a major long-term priority. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 7-5 Climate Impact Multipliers Water Stress (current) Baseline water stress measures the ratio of total annu- al water withdrawals to total available annual renewa- ble supply, accounting for upstream consumptive use. Higher values indicate more competition among users. The current water stress in Edina is “Low” (Source: World Resources Institute) Overall Water Risk Quantity (current) Physical risks quantity measures risk related to too little or too much water, by aggregating all selected indicators from the Physical Risk Quantity category. Higher values indicate higher water quantity risks. The current water stress in Edina is “Low” to Low- Medium” (Source: World Resources Institute) Risk Quality (current) Physical risks quality measures risk related to water that is unfit for use, by aggregating all selected indica- tors from the Physical Risk Quality category. Higher values indicate higher water quality risks. The current water risk in Edina is “Low-Medium” (Source: World Resources Institute) Drought Risk (current) Drought risk measures where droughts are likely to occur, the population and assets exposed, and the vulnerability of the population and assets to adverse effects. Higher values indicate higher risk of drought. The current drought risk in Edina is “Medium” (Source: World Resources Institute) Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 7-6 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 7-7 Climate Impact Multipliers Projected Water Stress (through 2040) Water stress is an indicator of competition for water resources and is defined informally as the ratio of de- mand for water by human society divided by available water. The projected water stress in Edina is “Near Normal to 2x Increase” (Source: World Resources Institute) Projected Seasonal Variability (Through 2040) Seasonal variability (SV) is an indicator of the variabil- ity between months of the year. Increasing SV may indicate wetter wet months and drier dry months, and higher likelihood of droughts or wet periods. We used the within-year coefficient of variance between monthly total blue water as our indicator of seasonal variability of water supply. The projected variability in Edina is “Near Nor- mal” (Source: World Resources Institute) Projected Water Supply (Through 2040) Total blue water (renewable surface water) was our indicator of water supply. Projected change in total blue water is equal to the 21-year mean around the target year divided by the baseline period of 1950– 2010. The projected water supply in Edina is “1.2x de- crease” (Source: World Resources Institute) Projected Water Demand (Through 2040) Water demand was measured as water withdrawals. Projected change in water withdrawals is equal to the summarized withdrawals for the target year, divided by the baseline year, 2010. The projected water demand in Edina is “near normal to 1.4x Increase” (Source: World Resources Institute) Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 7-8 Climate Impact Multipliers Edina Flood Vulnerability According to the US National Climate Assessment, the ten rainiest days can contribute up to 40% of the annual precipita- tion in the Minnesota region. By 2070, the Edina area can anticipate an increase of up to 15% in the total annual precipi- tation. In addition, the timeframe between rains is expected to continue to increase, (source US National Climate Assess- ment). Under this scenario, it is likely that certain periods of the year, like spring, may be significantly wetter with storms producing heavier rains. In anticipation of that, it is appropriate to review the areas of the City with flood risk and to re- view current storm water management capacity against future extreme rainfall event projections. The map shows the flood risk areas throughout the City as defined by FEMA . Flood risks illustrated relate to water sur- face elevations for 1% chance annual floods (“100 year flood event”). Areas shown relate to existing bodies of water as well as potential “flash flood” zones in low-lying areas. (Source: FEMA, FM Global, National Flood Services ) Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 8-1 08 Climate Resilience Indicators S e c t i o n Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 8-2 Climate Resilience Indicators Similar to Climate Impact Multipliers, a community’s overall resilience can have a multiplying or a mitigating affect on the population’s ability to adapt to climate risks and rapidly recover from extreme weather events. Understanding and track- ing the state of these Resilience Indicators will help identify some of the climate adaptive strategies appropriate for the City. Resilience Indicators include: Economic Stress, Health Indicators, EPA Environmental Justice Screen, EPA Social Vul- nerability Index, Housing Burden. Climate Resilience Indicators - Economic Stress Economic stress within communities function as an impact multiplier. The issue is not limited to individuals – communities with large lower incomes or low tax bases, or low tax rates, can have a lag in infrastructure planning, maintenance, and redevelopment. These stressors on a city’s planning capacity or activity decrease the ability for a community to prepare for and respond to climate stresses and vulnerabilities. In addition, a report by the World Health Organization points out that disadvantaged communities are likely to shoulder a disproportionate share of the burden of climate change because of their increased exposure and vulnerability to health threats. Median Household Income: $99,295 (State Average: $70,422) Poverty Rate: 4.91% (State Average: 10.1%) Wage Distribution: 0.463 Gini Index (2% less even wage distribution than State Average) The map to the right shows the household income level at the 20th percentile by census tract. Tracts with 20th per- centile at or below $45,000 indicate potentially high low income rates while tracts at or below $33,000 indicate po- tentially high poverty rates. Household Income at 20th %tile by Census Tract Source: Statistical Atlas Source: Statistical Atlas Source: Statistical Atlas Legend For Map: 20th Percentile Income Levels: Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 8-3 Climate Resilience Indicators—Health The potential magnitude of the population climate risks outlined in section 6 “Climate Risks to The Population” can be an- ticipated by understanding current community resilience indicators. Resilience indicators which are higher locally than State or National averages may imply a potential weakness which could be exacerbated by the risks posed by projected climate change. It should be understood that these community resilience indicators are usually only available at the gran- ularity of County level. This means that the City should carefully consider potential implications for any community resili- ence indicator even if the local demographic appears "stronger" (lower percentage/value/percentile) than State or Nation- al levels. State County Poor/Fair Health 12% 10% Uninsured 7% 7% Asthma emergency department visits (per 10,000) 40.1 56.3 Pulmonnary Disease Hospitalizations (COPD per 100,000) 15.8 12.9 Heart attack hospitalizations (per 100,000) 26.7 21.9 Frequent Physical Distress 9.9% 8% Frequent Mental Distress 11.6% 9% (Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps program, CDC, United Health Foundation, Minnesota Department of Public Health) Climate Resilience Indicators - Health and Heavy Traffic Vehicles are a significant and wide- spread source of air and noise pollution in Minnesota communities. Heavy traffic and busy roads increase the rela- tive health risks caused by all air pollu- tants coming from cars, trucks, and buses. When it gets hot outside, the impacts of pollution on health are even worse. Hotter summers influenced by climate change may mean more health problems for people living, working, or going to school in communities near major roadways. People who live, work, or attend schools near high- traffic roadways are more exposed to traffic-associated air pollutants. Even people passing through these areas while commuting, walking, or biking are more at risk. The map above shows concentrations of on-road vehicle noise, and potential particulate matter pollution distribution in the city. Areas with higher measured road noise indicate areas with potentially higher traffic based air pollution and, sub- sequently, those locations may pose greater risk to human health. Climate Resilience Indicators - 2020 Local Particulate Matter PM 2.5 12 Month History The chart to below shows the locally recorded Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5) which comes primarily from combustion sources such as vehicles. Source: US DOT National Transportation Road Noise Map Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 8-4 Climate Resilience Indicators- EPA Environmental Justice Screen EJSCREEN is an environmental justice mapping and screening tool that provides EPA with a nationally consistent data set and approach for combining environmental and demographic indicators. All of the EJSCREEN indicators are publicly- available data. EJSCREEN simply provides a way to display this information and includes a method for combining environ- mental and demographic indicators into EJ indexes. Below are the EJSCREEN results for the City. All values circled in orange are values in the upper 40th percentile for the State, representing areas of potential focus for the City. Climate Resilience Indicators - EPA Social Vulnerability Index Social vulnerability refers to the resilience of communities when confronted by external stresses on human health, stresses such as natural or human-caused disasters, or dis- ease outbreaks. Reducing social vulnerability can decrease both human suffering and economic loss. The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) compares and ranks every community in the United States at the Census Tract level. Factors include poverty, lack of car access, and crowded housing. The SVI is developed by the Centers for Disease Control. The City of Edina has areas in two of the four levels of vulnerability (lowest and second lowest quar- tiles) EPA Social Vulnerability Index Source: US EPA Social Vulnerabilty Index Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 8-5 Climate Resilience Indicators - Housing Burden Housing burden can be understood as a household living with any of four housing problems: overcrowding, high hous- ing cost, no kitchen, no plumbing. Households with housing burden can occur at any income level, though they may be more common in middle to lower income brackets. Housing burden factors, like other economic stress indicators, can challenge a household’s capacity to respond to emergencies increasing that household’s climate vulnerability. According to the US Census Bureau, the average monthly rent in Edina is over $1,460. The Census indicates Edina has 6,058 renter occupied housing units total. Over 42% are households living with a housing cost burden of over 30% and of those nearly 47% (19.8% of all renter occupied house- holds) are living with a housing costs totaling 50% or more of their income. Edina has a total of 15,605 owner occupied housing units. Of those households, 35.9% are living with housing cost bur- den of over 30% with 1/3rd of those living with a housing costs totaling 50% or more of their income. See maps to the right for the distribution of these households throughout the community. Housing Type Impacts on Housing Burden The type of structure a resident lives in can impact the level of housing burden experienced by community members. According to a 2005 study by the US Housing and Urban De- velopment Agency, renters, on average, have 10% more of their monthly income going to utility costs. Those who live in mobile home type constructions often pay even more. The Environmental and Energy Study Institute, indicates that mobile homes built before 1980 consume an average of 84,316 BTUs per square foot, 53 percent more than other types of homes. A study by the energy consultant group Frontier Associates found that residents in older manufac- tured homes may pay up to $500 a month for electricity, or over 24% of average monthly income. Mobile homes are also less resilient to extreme temperatures, extreme weath- er, high winds, and tornado events. Edina Housing by Type and Occupancy Housing Type Housing Units (occupied) Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied Number % of Total State Ave Number % of Total State Ave Number % of Total State Ave 1, detached 12,565 58.00% 66.90% 11,891 76.20% 85.50% 672 11.10% 20.20% 1, attached 1,235 5.70% 7.80% 905 5.80% 7.50% 339 5.60% 8.40% 2 apartments 217 1.00% 2.10% 47 0.30% 0.60% 176 2.90% 5.90% 3 or 4 apartments 152 0.70% 2.10% 78 0.50% 0.50% 73 1.20% 6.10% 5 to 9 apartments 390 1.80% 2.20% 218 1.40% 0.40% 176 2.90% 6.80% 10 or more apartments 7,084 32.70% 16.10% 2,466 15.80% 2.20% 4,622 76.30% 51.10% Mobile home 0 0.00% 2.70% 0 0.00% 3.20% 0 0.00% 1.60% Total Occupied Units 21,663 15,605 72.0% 71.6% 6,058 28.0% 28.4% (Source: US Census Bureau) Edina Homeowners Paying More Than 30% of Income for Housing Costs Edina Renters Paying 30%-49% of Income for Housing Costs Edina Renters Paying >50% of Income for Housing Costs Climate Resilience Indicators– Energy Burden “Energy Burden” is the percentage of household income that goes toward energy costs (electricity, home heating, and transportation). Individuals with lower incomes have a much higher likelihood of living under an energy burden—not only because the energy costs experienced by a lower income household must be paid for out of a smaller income, but also because lower income individuals frequently live in homes with higher energy costs due to older building age or lower levels of insulation and energy equipment efficiency. Higher energy burdens have real implications on the health and well-being of families and individuals. Families who have to devote higher proportions of their income to utility bills may have to make trade-offs between heating and cooling their homes or affording other necessities, such as food, medicine, and childcare. According to the US Census (2011–2016), the national average energy burden for low-income households is 8.6 percent compared with less than 3% for non-low- income households. According to the US Department of Energy, average annual energy costs in Edina range from just under $900 for some renter households in the second lowest income brackets (30%-60% Area Median Income) to $2,700 for some homeowners in the highest income brackets (100%+ area median income). See chart below for a comparison of Edina energy costs against State averages: Comparing those costs against the annual household income identifies the community members living with high energy burden. In Edina, the energy burden for households below 30% AMI is 7% for renters and 18% for home owners while the energy burden for households at 100% AMI and above drops to 1%....less than 6% of the energy cost impacts on low- income renter households. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 8-6 Source: US Department of Energy LEAD Tool Source: US Department of Energy LEAD Tool Climate Resilience Indicators– Energy Burden Energy costs as a percentage of household income for rental and owner occupied households in Edina compared against State averages (see Ave Energy Burden for Minnesota vs Edina above) can be broken down further by building age which can help identify the households and building type/ages which are most likely living under high energy burden. This data illustrates that households in the lowest income brackets (0-30% AMI) in homes built prior to 2010 are living with energy burdens from 12% to 29% - the highest within that income bracket. This may indicate a potential need for increased ener- gy efficiency within new construction housing units for LMI populations. See chart below for energy costs as a percentage of household income by age of building in Edina compared against State averages: Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 8-7 Source: US Department of Energy LEAD Tool High Energy Burden Source: US Department of Energy LEAD Tool Source: US Department of Energy LEAD Tool Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 9-1 09 Vulnerable Populations S e c t i o n Vulnerable Populations in Edina According to the study “Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States”, climate change eco- nomic impacts will increase the unpredictability and inequity of future economic outcomes. Some groups face a number of stressors related to both cli- mate and non-climate factors. For example, people living in impoverished urban or isolated rural areas, floodplains, and other at-risk locations such as areas of current or historically high levels of toxic chemical pollution are more vulnerable not only to extreme weather and persistent climate change but also to social and economic stressors. Many of these stressors can occur simultaneously or consecutively. People or communities can have greater or lesser vulnerabil- ity to health risks depending on age, social, political, and eco- nomic factors that are collectively known as social determi- nants of health. Some groups are disproportionately disad- vantaged by social determinants of health that limit re- sources and opportunities for health-promoting behaviors and conditions of daily life, such as living/working circum- stances and access to healthcare services. Populations of concern are particularly vulnerable to climate change im- pacts. Heightened vulnerability to existing and projected climate impacts can be due to a sector of the population’s exposure, sensitivity, or adaptive capacity to a climate im- pact. Who is Most Vulnerable? Across the United States, people and communities differ in their exposures, their inherent sensitivity, and their capacity to respond to and cope with climate change related threats. Community members who are most vulnerable include: The following pages map the populations particularly vulner- able to the risks of climate change impacts within the com- munity. People of Color At-Risk Workers Food Insecure Individuals Individuals Without Vehicle Access Children Under 5 Elders 65 + Individuals with Disabilities Individuals in Economic Distress Vulnerable Populations—Children under 5 According to the US Global Change Research Program “Children are vulnerable to adverse health effects associated with environmental exposures due to factors related to their immature physiology and metabolism, their unique exposure pathways, their biological sensitivities, and limits to their adaptive capacity. Children have a proportionately higher intake of air, food, and water relative to their body weight compared to adults. They also share unique behaviors and interactions with their environment that may increase their exposure to environmental contaminants such as dust and other contami- nants, such as pesticides, mold spores, and allergens.” Children are particularly sensitive to the following Climate Risks (see Section 6 for Climate Risk information): Map of Vulnerable Population Distribution Within Community Observations for Edina The estimated total child population under five for Edina is 2,973. This vulnerable population makes up 5.8% of the City’s total population. Chil- dren under five are most concentrated in the Central, Northwest, and Southeast sections of the City. These sections represent both the high- est estimated population as well as the highest share of the total popula- tion of these tracts - ranging from 5% to 8% of the total population of those neighborhoods. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 9-3 Children Under 5 Estimated Population Share Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Children Under 5 Summary Total Estimated Population: 2,973 Estimated Share of Total Vulnerable Population: 8-12% Estimated Share of Total City Population: 5.8% Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 9-4 Vulnerable Populations— Elders (65 and over) Older adults are also vulnerable to the health impacts associated with climate change and weather extremes. Vulnerabili- ties within older adults are not uniform due to the fact that this demographic is a diverse group with distinct sub- populations that can be identified not only by age but also by race, educational attainment, socioeconomic status, social support networks, overall physical and mental health, and disability status. According to the US Global Change Research Program “the potential climate change related health impacts for older adults include rising temperatures and heat waves; increased risk of more intense floods, droughts, and wildfires; degraded air quality; exposure to infectious diseases; and other climate-related hazards.” Older Adults are particularly sensitive to the following Climate Risks (see Section 6 for Climate Risk information): Map of Vulnerable Population Distribution Within Community Observations for Edina The estimated total older adult population for Edina is 10,999. This vul- nerable population makes up 21.5% of the City’s total population and 1/3rd or more of the total vulnerable population in the community. Old- er adults over 65 are most concentrated in the Southeastern and South Central sections of the City. These sections represent both the highest estimated population as well as the highest share of the total population of these tracts - ranging from 20% to over 44% of the total population of those neighborhoods. Older Adults Estimated Population Share Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Older Adults Summary Total Estimated Population: 10,999 Estimated Share of Total Vulnerable Population: 30-34% Estimated Share of Total City Population: 21.5% Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 9-5 Vulnerable Populations—Individuals with Disabilities People with disabilities experience disproportionately higher rates of social risk factors, such as poverty and lower educa- tional attainment, that contribute to poorer health outcomes during extreme events or climate-related emergencies. These factors compound the risks posed by functional impairments and disrupt planning and emergency response. Of the climate-related health risks experienced by people with disabilities, perhaps the most fundamental is their “invisibility” to decision-makers and planners. Disability refers to any condition or impairment of the body or mind that limits a person’s ability to do certain activities or restricts a person’s participation in normal life activities, such as school, work, or recrea- tion. Individuals with disabilities are particularly sensitive to the following Risks (see Section 6 for Climate Risk information): Map of Vulnerable Population Distribution Within Community Observations for Edina The estimated total population of individuals with disabilities for Edina is 4,682. This vulnerable population makes up 9.2% of the City’s total pop- ulation. Individuals with disabilities make up approximately 1 in every 7 climate vulnerable individuals in the community . Individuals with disa- bilities are fairly evenly distributed throughout the City, however, the Southeastern and South Central sections have the highest concentration based on share of population. These sections range from 11% to over 18% of the total population of those neighborhoods. Individuals with Disabilities Summary Total Estimated Population: 4,682 Estimated Share of Total Vulnerable Population: 12-16% Estimated Share of Total City Population: 9.2% Individuals with Disabilities Estimated Population Share Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 9-6 Vulnerable Populations—Individuals In Economic Stress Individuals and families living under economic stress, defined here as “low income” individuals (200% poverty level), are frequently the most adaptive demographic group in our communities. Those living under economic stress exhibit on-going adaptation capabilities simply navigating day-to-day challenges with less than needed resources. This adaptive capacity, however, is overwhelmed in times of emergency as lack of sufficient economic resources greatly reduce the range of op- tions available in response to crisis. For those in poverty, weather-related disasters or family members falling ill can facili- tate crippling economic shocks. With limited economic adaptive capacity, this portion of our population is especially vulnerable to every projected climate impact. Frequently the most effective measures in avoiding extreme heat such as efficiently functioning air conditioning or high performing building enclosures are simply not available to those in poverty while many work in outdoor or indus- trial jobs which are particularly vulnerable to climate conditions. Diseases which may result from exposure to vector- borne, water-borne, and air-borne pathways may go untreated due to lack of medical access or ability to pay and may increase the level of economic stress due to missed work days or even loss of employment. Those living under economic stress usually carry a heavy housing cost burden, including higher utility costs. This burden can be exacerbated from dam- aged sustained by their home in extreme weather or flooding events. Individuals experiencing economic stress, defined as those at 200% poverty level (the common definition of “Low In- come”) are particularly sensitive to the following Climate Risks: Map of Vulnerable Population Distribution Within Community Observations for Edina The estimated total population in economic stress for Edina is 6,175. Those living in economic stress in Edina make up over 1 in 5 climate vulnerable individuals in the community and are most concentrated in the Eastern, Southeastern and Northwest sections of the City. These sections represent have the highest share of the total population of these tracts - Individuals in Economic Stress Estimated Population Share Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Individuals in Economic Stress Summary Total Estimated Population: 6,175 Estimated Share of Total Vulnerable Population: 16-24% Estimated Share of Total City Population: 12.1% Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 9-7 Vulnerable Populations—Individuals In Economic Stress (continued) Poverty by Age and Gender 4.91% of the population in Edina live below the poverty line. The largest demographic living in poverty is female 75+, fol- lowed by female 45-54 and then female 55-64. The Census Bureau uses a set of money income thresholds that vary by family size and composition to determine who classifies is impoverished. If a family's total income is less than the family's threshold than that family and every individual in it is considered to be living in poverty. Map of Individuals Living in Poverty Within Community Individuals in Poverty Estimated Population Share Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Vulnerable Populations—People of Color These populations are at increased risk of exposure given their higher likelihood of living in risk-prone areas, areas with older or poorly maintained infrastructure, or areas with an increased burden of air pollution. As summarized by Angel Hsu, an environmental policy expert at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill “Disparities in urban heat exposure as a direct result of urban planning and design, environmental racism, and the policies such as redlining ... do in fact exist.” In addition, according to the Center for Disease Control and the National Health Interview Survey these portions of our popu- lation also experience higher incidence of chronic medical conditions which can be exacerbated by climate change im- pacts. These populations may also be impeded from preparing, responding, and coping with climate related health risks due to socioeconomic and education factors, limited transportation, limited access to health education, and social isola- tion related to language barriers. People of Color may be particularly sensitive to the following Climate Risks: Map of Vulnerable Population Distribution Within Community Observations for Edina The estimated total people of color population for Edina is 7,188. This vulnerable population makes up 14.1% of the City’s total population and approximately 1/4th of the total vulnerable population in the communi- ty. People of color are most concentrated in the Southeast and Southern sections of the City. These sections represent both the highest estimat- ed population as well as the highest share of the total population of these tracts - ranging from 15% to over 39% of the total population of those neighborhoods. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 9-8 People of Color Summary Total Estimated Population: 7,188 Estimated Share of Total Vulnerable Population: 20-26% Estimated Share of Total City Population: 14.1% People of Color Estimated Population Share Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates > 36.1% 32.98% - 36.1% 29.88% - 32.98% 26.78% - 29.88% 23.67% - 26.78% 20.57% - 23.67% 17.47% - 20.57% 14.36% - 17.47% 11.26% - 14.36% 8.16% - 11.26% < 8.16% Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 9-9 Vulnerable Populations—Limited English Speakers Individuals with limited English language skills may be more socially isolated. Their limited English also likely limits their access to public information and notifications, potentially resulting in a knowledge gap related to community resources, programs, or education which may be relevant in preparing for and recovering from climate impacts. In addition, commu- nication barriers may create challenges for limited English speakers in understanding critical information or instructions given in public address during an extreme weather event. Though not specifically a “person of color” category, individuals with limited English frequently overlap with populations of color, making this group potentially doubly vulnerable. Limited English Speakers may be particularly sensitive to the following Climate Risks: Map of Vulnerable Population Distribution Within Community Observations for Edina The estimated total population of limited English speakers for Edina is 3,170. This vulnerable population makes up 6.2% of the City’s total pop- ulation. Limited English speakers make up approximately 1 in every 6 climate vulnerable individuals in the community . Limited English speak- ers are most concentrated in the Southeastern sections of the City. These sections represent both the highest estimated population as well as the highest share of the total population of these tracts - ranging from 15% to over 39% of the total population of those neighborhoods. Limited English Speakers Summary Total Estimated Population: 3,170 Estimated Share of Total Vulnerable Population: 10-18% Estimated Share of Total City Population: 6.2% Limited English Speakers Estimated Population Share Source: American Community Survey 5- Year Estimates Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 9-10 Vulnerable Populations—At Risk Workers Climate change will increase the prevalence and severity of occupational hazards related to environmental exposure. As our climate changes, we may also experience the emergence of new work related risks. Climate change can be expected to affect the health of outdoor workers through increases in ambient temperature, more prevalent and longer-lasting heat waves, degraded air quality, extreme weather, vector-borne diseases, and industrial exposures. Workers affected by cli- mate change include farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural workers; laborers exposed to hot indoor work environ- ments; construction workers; paramedics, firefighters and other first responders; and transportation workers. For individ- uals employed in climate vulnerable jobs who also fall within other vulnerable population categories, the health effects of climate change can be cumulative. For these individuals, the risks experienced in their work can be exacerbated by expo- sures associated with poorly insulated housing and lack of air conditioning. Workers may also be exposed to adverse occu- pational and climate-related conditions that the general public may be more able to avoid, such as direct exposure to ex- treme heat, extreme weather events, low air quality, or wildfires. Individuals employed in at-risk occupations may be particularly sensitive to the following Climate Risks: Map of Vulnerable Population Distribution Within Community Observations for Edina The estimated total Edina residents employed in at-risk occupations is 1,879, nearly 8% of all Edina residents who are employed, and over 3.7% of the City’s total population. At-risk workers make up at least 1 in every 12 climate vulnerable individuals in the City . At-risk workers are most concentrated in the Eastern and Central sections of the City. The largest at-risk worker categories are employed in Transportation, Material Mov- er, Construction, Extraction, and Production jobs. At-Risk Workers Estimated Population Share Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates At Risk Workers Summary Total Estimated Population: 1,879 Estimated Share of Total Vulnerable Population: 5-10% Estimated Share of Total City Population: 3.7% Estimated Share of Total Worker Population in City: 7.5% Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 9-11 Vulnerable Populations—At Risk Workers (Continued) Employment by Occupation From 2017 to 2018, employment in Edina, MN grew at a rate of 2.16%, from 24.7k employees to 25.2k employees. The most common job groups, by number of people living in Edina, MN, are Management Occupations (4,466 people), Sales & Related Occupations (3,719 people), and Business & Financial Operations Occupations (2,778 people). This chart illustrates the share breakdown of the primary jobs held by residents of Edina, MN Employment by Industries From 2017 to 2018, employment in Edina, MN grew at a rate of 2.16%, from 24.7k employees to 25.2k employees. The most common employment sectors for those who live in Edina, MN, are Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services (3,938 people), Health Care & Social Assistance (3,490 people), and Retail Trade (2,756 people). This chart shows the share breakdown of the primary industries for residents of Edina, MN, though some of these residents may live in Edina, MN and work somewhere else. Census data is tagged to a residential address, not a work address. Employment by Occupation Employment by Industries Source: Data USA / Deloitte Source: Data USA / Deloitte Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 9-12 Vulnerable Populations—Individuals with Possible Food Insecurity Those in economic stress are also frequently food insecure. In Minnesota, food insecurity affects 1 in 12 adults and 1 in 8 children. Many of the projected climate change impacts are likely to effect agricultural production and distribution, which in turn, may cause spikes in food costs and increase food and nutrition insecurity among those in economic stress. Climate change affects agriculture in a number of ways, including through changes in average temperatures, rainfall, and extreme weather events and heat; changes in pests and diseases; changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and ground-level ozone concentrations. These effects can be anticipated regionally as well as worldwide to become more pronounced by mid-century. As the food distribution system becomes more stressed, individuals with less readily available access are more likely to be negatively impacted by the resulting cycles of food shortages and food price increases. Individuals experiencing food insecurity may be particularly sensitive to the following Climate Risks: Map of Vulnerable Population Distribution Within Community Food Access On the map above, highlighted sections represent low-income census tracts (tracts where 20% or more of the population is at or below poverty, or where family median incomes are 80% or less of State median) where a significant number (at least 500 people) or share (at least 33 percent) of residents are distant from the nearest supermarket. In sections which are green, residents are more than 1 mile (urban) or 10 miles (rural), while in orange sections residents are more than ½ mile (urban) or 10 miles (rural) from nearest supermarket. None of the census tracts within Edina are identified as regions with significant populations with food access concerns. It should be noted, however, that portions of the population may have food insecurity which could be identified through a community wide food security assessment. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 9-13 Vulnerable Populations—Vehicle Access Limited mobility due to lack of vehicle access may present challenges during emergency evacuation situations, especially for individuals in high-risk areas. In addition, limited mobility can inhibit access to cooling stations (public facilities with air conditioning) during extreme heat events and/or access to hospitals or clinics. In addition, individuals with limited vehicle access may also be individuals in economic stress or older adults—both vulnerable populations for which mobility chal- lenges may exacerbate climate vulnerabilities. Individuals with limited or no vehicle access may be particularly sensitive to the following Climate Risks: Map of Vulnerable Population Distribution Within Community Observations for Edina The estimated total population of individuals with no vehicle access for Edina is 2,627. This vulnerable population makes up 5.2% of the City’s total population. Individuals with no vehicle access are most concentrat- ed in the Southeastern and Northwestner sections of the City. These sections represent both the highest estimated population as well as the highest share of the total population of these tracts - ranging from 10% to over 20% of the total population of those neighborhoods. No Vehicle Access Summary Total Estimated Population: 2,672 Estimated Share of Total Vulnerable Population: 8-12% Estimated Share of Total City Population: 5.2% Individuals With No Vehicle Access Estimated Population Share Source: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 9-14 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 9-15 Vulnerable Populations—Climate Migrant Populations In the United States alone, within just a few decades, hundreds of thousands of homes on US coasts will be chronically flooded. According to a study by the Union of Concerned Scientists, over 170 communities in the United States will be chronically inundated from sea level rise by the end of this decade. More than half of these 170 communities are current- ly home to socioeconomically vulnerable neighborhoods. By 2060 the number may more than double to 360 communities and by 2100 double yet again to over 670 communities chronically inundated. By that time more than 50 heavily populated areas—including Oakland, California; Miami and St. Petersburg, Florida; and four of the five boroughs of New York City—will face chronic inundation. These effects of sea level rise could displace 13,000,000 people within the United States by the end of this century. In addition to these inter- nal-US climate migrants, the UN forecasts estimate that there could be anywhere between 25 million and 1 billion envi- ronmental migrants by 2050. Human migration is a natural response to these climate change pressures, and is one of many adaptation measures that people will take in response to climate change. Understating how human migration will be affected by climate change is therefore a critical input in the decision making process of many governments and organizations. In particular, it is im- portant to understand how climate change driven migration will differ from “business as usual” forms and motivations humans have to migrate, increasing the volume rate of migration brining with it indirect impacts on the communities likely to receive migrants. The impacts of climate migration will cause accelerated changes for inland areas, particularly urban areas, that will observe much higher levels of in- coming migrants than they would have without climate impacts. It is pro- jected that 86% of all communities with populations of over 10,000 will be impacted with climate migration this century. These changes can in turn take the form of tighter labor markets and increased housing prices, and impacts on income inequality. This climate migration can also have positive impacts such as improved productivity, broadened skillsets within the labor force, and expanded human capital. Below are two modeled projections for US climate migration induced by sea level rise (SLR) only through 2100: (Sources: School of Computational Science and Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, United Nations International Organization on Migration Hauer, M. Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape. Nature Clim Change 7, 321–325 (2017). https:// doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3271 Robinson C, Dilkina B, Moreno-Cruz J (2020) Modeling migration patterns in the USA under sea level rise. PLoS ONE 15(1): e0227436. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0227436) Hauer Projection Migration induced by sea-level rise in US Robinson Projection Migration induced by sea-level rise in US Hennepin County:50,000-100,000 City of Edina (Pro Rata Share): 2,000-4,000 Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 10-1 10 Findings S e c t i o n The measure of a country's greatness should be based on how well it cares for its most vulnerable populations. Mahatma Gandhi “ Findings Summary of Vulnerabilities The chart below summarizes the vulnerable population demographics by category for each census tract in the City. The tracts with the highest two quartiles of each demographic are highlighted in blue. The “Total Instances of Vulnerabilities” line shows the total instances of vulnerabilities for each census tract, with the tracts in the highest two quartiles highlight- ed in blue. It should be noted that it is possible for individuals to be members of more than one vulnerable population. For example, an individual may be both an adult over age 65 as well as an individual living below 200% of poverty level. Consequently, the “total instances of vulnerabilities does not necessarily represent the numbers of vulnerable individuals in each tract.” The “Vulnerability Coefficient” represents the total instances of vulnerabilities divided by the total population of the cen- sus tract (“Total Population in Tract”) and is a representation of the proportion of total climate vulnerabilities within the population of the census tract. This number could be thought of as “Density of Vulnerability” meaning a high coefficient represents a high density of instances of vulnerability compared to the total census tract population. Neighborhoods with high vulnerability coefficients may represent portions of the community with higher overall need and may possibly be viewed as neighborhoods the City may prioritize for an action if addressing the portions of the community with the great- est need was desired. The tracts with Vulnerability Coefficients in the highest two quartiles are highlighted in light red. The “Share of Total Vulnerability” represents the census tract’s share of the community-wide instances of vulnerability. This number represents the raw total instances of vulnerabilities without consideration to the size of the overall popula- tion of the Census Tract. It should be noted that a census tract with a lower Vulnerability Coefficient may still have a large share of the total instances of vulnerability—particularly in census tracts with relatively high total populations. Census tracts with high Share of Total Vulnerability can be viewed as neighborhoods the City may prioritize for an action if ad- dressing the most instances of vulnerability was desired. The tracts with shares of total vulnerability in the highest two quartiles are highlighted in light red. Lastly, the chart includes a Composite Rank Score which represents an average of the Vulnerability Coefficient and the Share of Total Vulnerability for each census tract. (See map to right for visualization of Vulnerability Coefficient by Census Tract). This measure can be viewed as identifying neighborhoods the City may prioritize for an action if a balanced approach of addressing both high potential neighborhood need and addressing the most instances of vulnerability was desired. The tracts with Composite Rank scores in the highest two quartiles are highlighted in dark red. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 10-3 Summary of Vulnerable Populations by Census Tract Data Source: US Census Elders Vulnerability Coefficient by Census Tract Findings Vulnerable Populations Risk Sensitivity Chart Based on the total estimated population count for each vulnerable population and considering the risks each de- mographic is most sensitive to, the population vulnerabili- ties can be considered from highest sensitivity (more vul- nerable individuals) to lowest (fewer vulnerable individu- als) sensitivity. It should be noted that risks which appear to have lower sensitivity levels should not be considered irrelevant for the community. The Vulnerable Population Risk Sensitivity Chart tabulates the instances of vulnerable population which are particu- larly sensitive to each of the Climate Risks to the Popula- tion as outlined in Section 6 and mapped/calculated in Section 9. The left side of the chart includes all of the pri- mary climate risks while the right side includes the eco- nomic climate risks. Prioritizing Risk and Vulnerabilities Climate change impacts affect everyone and City policies and actions should consider climate adaptive needs of the entire community. As with all planning efforts, climate adaptation benefits from analysis in order to assist in es- tablishing priorities for initial efforts. An effort to struc- ture a prioritization should not be seen as an attempt to discard the need to address climate impacts for any popu- lation within the City - whether or not it is defined as one of the “vulnerable” populations . Prioritization, however, is necessary to ensure the greatest impact and effective- ness of limited City resources. Based on the above review the City’s adaptive efforts may be most effective by prioritizing strategies which address the climate risks of Extreme Heat, Air Quality, Flooding, Power/Infrastructure Failure, and Food Insecurity. Partic- ular attention should be paid to strategies which are most effective for Elders over 65, People of Color, and those in Economic Stress. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 10-4 Edina Climate Risk Sensitivity Ranking Summary Elders Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 10-5 Findings Projected Economic Impacts of Climate Change “Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States”, a 2017 study completed by Solomon Hsiang and others from the University of California at Berkeley assessed the economic impact of current climate projections throughout the United States. The sectors assessed, and the findings for Hennepin County Minne- sota and the City of Edina are below: Agricultural Yields Through 2100 (Graphic A) Agricultural yields are projected to decline with the increase of Global Mean Surface Temperature in addition to impacts related to precipitation changes. Although increased CO2 levels are anticipat- ed to offset a portion of these yield loses, the impact for much of the United States will be a net negative. Local projections: Hennepin County and City of Edina: -20.3% Energy Expenditures Through 2100 (Graphic C) As average annual temperatures increase, demand for energy will increase, resulting in increased energy expenditures. Local projec- tions: Hennepin County and City of Edina: +8.5% Reduced Labor Productivity Through 2100 (Graphics D & E) Labor productivity declines with the instance of increased tempera- ture. Rates vary for “low-risk” workers who are predominantly not exposed to exterior conditions and for “high-risk” workers (those identified as “At Risk Workers” in Section 9). Local projections: Low-Risk Labor Loss for Hennepin County and City of Edina: -0.19% High-Risk Labor Loss for Hennepin County and City of Edina: -1.3% Increases in Crime Rates Through 2100 (Graphics G & H) Studies indicate property crime increases as the number of cold days decrease due to the property crime suppression effect cold days have. Violent crime rates have been shown to increase linear- ly at a relatively precise 0.88% per 1°C. Local projections: Property Crime Increase: +2.0% Violent Crime Increase: : +4.0% Graphic Source: “Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States” Findings Total Projected Economic Impacts Through 2100 According to research completed for “Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States”, a 2017 study completed by Solomon Hsiang and others from the University of California at Berkeley the total annual economic costs for Hennepin County Minnesota by 2100 will be: Estimating the total annual economic costs for the City of Edina on a Pro Rata share results in: Inequity of Economic Impacts Through 2100 According to the study “Estimating eco- nomic damage from climate change in the United States”, climate change economic impacts will increase the unpredictability and inequity of future economic out- comes. The projected economic effects are unequally borne. As the graphic to the left illustrates, the poorest 10% are likely to receive 5 to 10 times the negative eco- nomic impacts of the wealthiest 10% in the community. Graphic Source: “Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States” Muir-Wood, Paul Wilson, Michael Oppenhei- mer, Kate Larsen and Trevor Houser Solomon Hsiang, Robert Kopp, Amir Jina, James Rising, Michael Delgado, Shashank Mohan, D. J. Ras- mussen, Robert DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4369 Science 356 (6345), 1362-1369. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 10-6 $825,624,691 annually (2018 dollars) $33,746,268 annually (2018 dollars) Findings Estimating Social Cost of Carbon “Social Cost of Carbon” is an effort to properly account for the damages caused by greenhouse gas emissions and the re- sulting climate change impacts. By including the social cost of carbon in planning efforts, agencies and businesses can properly evaluate policies and decisions that affect greenhouse gas emissions. The “Social Cost of Carbon” is measure of the share of climate change economic harm and impacts from emitting one ton of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The “Total Projected Economic Impacts” calculated on the previous page can be used to establish a reasonable localized social cost of carbon for the community. The methodology is to simply take the projected annual climate impact value and divide by the current community-wide GHG emissions: Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 10-7 Estimating the total annual eco- nomic impact for the City of Edina ÷ = Current Total Citywide GHG Emissions Localized Social Cost of Carbon Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 10-8 Findings Review of Climate Hazards for The Community A “Climate Hazard” is a physical process or event (hydro-meteorological or oceanographic variables or phenomena) that can harm human health, livelihoods, or natural resources. Climate Hazards are reviewed based on current hazard level, anticipated change over time, and projected future hazard level. The chart below reviews the current, future, and timeline of change for each of the primary Climate Hazards for the City. In addition, the columns on the right illustrate the reported number of events, % change, and annualized economic impact of each of these hazards over the last 20 years. Note, the number of events and annualized property losses are based solely on the number of events reported by NOAA, the actual number is likely to vary. Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 10-9 Findings Review of Climate Risks for the City of Edina A “Climate Risk” is the potential for negative consequences and outcomes for human health, systems, or communities. The most common way of evaluating the level of risk associated is “likelihood of Occurrence” x “Impact Level” or vulnera- bility. Two charts are provided below. The first reviews the expected impacts, likelihood of occurrence, impact level based on Population vulnerability reviewed in Section 9 and earlier in Section 10, potential timeframe, and resulting over- all risk level for Climate Risks to Population (Health Impacts). The second reviews the infrastructural and institutional Cli- mate Risks to the Community. Each chart includes a brief review of the expected impacts and indicators. Priority Climate Risks for Edina The priority climate risks to the population of Edina include Extreme Heat, Flooding, and Air Quality impacts while the pri- ority climate risks to infrastructure/institutions include Land Use Planning, Buildings, Roads, and Energy impacts. Health Risks to Population Climate Risks to Infrastructure and Institutions Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment 10-8 Photo Tanner Ford via Flickr Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment A1-1 A1 Appendix 1 Local Climate Risks to the Environment S e c t i o n Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment A1-2 Local Climate Risks To The Environment Climate change projections for the Community represent potential risks. The types of risks can be organized into risks to the environment and ecosystems and risks to the population. The following is an overview of the potential risks posed by climate change for the region: Warmer summers Pollution control risks: Wildfires may lead to soil erosion Habitat risks: Greater evaporation Lower groundwater tables Switching public water supply between surface and ground- water sources may affect the integrity of water bodies Fish Wildlife and Plant risks: Species that won’t tolerate warmer summers may die/ migrate Biota at the southern limit of their range may disappear from ecosystems Species may be weakened by heat and become out- competed Essential food sources may die off or disappear, affecting the food web Species may need to consume more water as temperature rises Recreation and Public Water Supply Risks: More people using water for recreation may raise the po- tential for pathogen exposure Warmer temperatures may drive greater water demand Evaporation losses from reservoirs and groundwater may increase Warmer winters Pollution Control risks: Increased fertilizer and pesticide use due to longer growing season. Warmer winters result in more ice and freeze thaw re- sulting in greater chloride application and more permanent damage to local water bodies due to increased salt concen- trations. Habitat risks: Less snow, more rain may change the runoff/infiltration balance; base flow in streams may change Changing spring runoff with varying snow. Fish Wildlife and Plant risks: Species that used to migrate away may stay all winter and species that once migrated through may stop and stay Pests may survive winters that used to kill them and inva- sive species may move into places that used to be too cold Some plants need a “setting” cold temperature and may not receive it consistently A longer growing season may lead to an extra reproductive cycle Food supplies and bird migrations may be mistimed Recreation and Public Water Supply Risks: Summer water supplies that depend on winter snow pack may be reduced or disappear Cold places may see more freeze/thaw cycles that can affect infrastructure Warmer water Pollution Control risks: Temperature criteria for discharges may be exceeded (thermal pollution) Warmer temperatures may increase toxicity of pollutants Higher solubility may lead to higher concentration of pollu- tants Water may hold less dissolved oxygen Higher surface temperatures may lead to stratification Greater algae growth may occur Parasites, bacteria may have greater survival or transmis- sion Habitat risks: Warmer water may lead to greater likelihood of stratifica- tion Desired fish may no longer be present Warmer water may promote invasive species or disease Fish Wildlife and Plant risks: Newly invasive species may appear Habitat may become unsuitably warm, for a species or its food Heat may stress immobile biota Oxygen capacity of water may drop Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment A1-3 Local Climate Risks To The Environment Some fish reproduction may require cold temperatures; other reproductive cycles are tied to water temperature Parasites and diseases are enhanced by warmer water Fish resource food harvesting, Recreation, and Public Wa- ter Supply Risks: Harmful algal blooms may be more likely Fishing seasons and fish may become misaligned Desired recreational fish may no longer be present Invasive plants may clog creeks and waterways Changes in treatment processes may be required Increased growth of algae and microbes may affect drinking water quality Increased drought Pollution Control risks: Critical-low-flow criteria for discharging may not be met Pollutant concentrations may increase if sources stay the same and flow diminishes Pollution sources may build up on land, followed by high- intensity flushes Habitat risks: Groundwater tables may drop Base flow in streams may decrease Stream water may become warmer Increased human use of groundwater during drought may reduce stream baseflow New water supply reservoirs may affect the integrity of freshwater streams Fish Wildlife and Plant risks: Species may not tolerate a new drought regime (birch fami- ly) Native habitat may be affected if freshwater flow in streams is diminished or eliminated Recreation and Public Water Supply Risks: Freshwater flows in streams may not support recreational uses Groundwater tables may drop Maintaining passing flows at diversions may be difficult Increased storminess Pollution Control risks: Combined sewer overflows may increase Treatment plants may go offline during intense floods Streams may see greater erosion and scour Urban areas may be subject to more floods Flood control facilities (e.g., detention basins, manure man- agement) may be inadequate High rainfall may cause septic systems to fail Habitat risks: The number of storms reaching an intensity that causes significant problems may increase Stronger storms may cause more intense flooding and run- off Turbidity of surface waters may increase Increased intensity of precipitation may yield less infiltra- tion Stream erosion may lead to high turbidity and greater sedi- mentation Lower pH from NPS pollution may affect target species Fish Wildlife and Plant risks: Greater soil erosion may increase turbidity and decrease water clarity Greater soil erosion may increase sediment deposition in estuaries, with consequences for benthic species Recreation and Public Water Supply Risks: More frequent or more intense storms may decrease recre- ational opportunities Greater nonpoint source pollution may impair recreation Water infrastructure may be vulnerable to flooding Flood waters may raise downstream turbidity and affect water quality (Source: USEPA “Being Prepared for Climate Change A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans”) Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment A2-1 A2 Appendix 2 Climate Adaptive Tree Species (A document by the National Institute of Applied Climate Sci- ence of the USDA Forest Service) S e c t i o n Edina Climate Vulnerability Assessment A3-1 A3 S e c t i o n Appendix 4 Glossary of Climate Adaptation and Vulnerability Terms Climate and Sustainability Glossary of Terms 1 A Activity Data Data on the magnitude of a human activity resulting in emissions or removals taking place during a given period of time. Data on energy use, metal production, land areas, management systems, lime and fertilizer use and waste arisings are examples of activity data. (IPCC) Adaptive Capacity The social, technical skills, and financial capacities of individuals and groups to implement and maintain climate actions. Aerosols A collection of airborne solid or liquid particles, with a typical size between 0.01 and 10 micrometer that reside in the atmosphere for at least several hours. Aerosols may be of either natural or anthropogenic origin. Aerosols may influence climate in several ways: directly through scattering and absorbing radiation, and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei or modifying the optical properties and lifetime of clouds. (IPCC2) Afforestation Planting of new forests on lands that historically have not contained forests. (IPCC2) Air Pollutant Any man-made and/or natural substance occurring in the atmosphere that may result in adverse effects to humans, animals, vegetation, and/or materials. (CARB) Anthropogenic The term "anthropogenic", in the context of greenhouse gas inventories, refers to greenhouse gas emissions and removals that are a direct result of human activities or are the result of natural processes that have been affected by human activities. (USEPA2) Atmosphere The gaseous envelope surrounding the Earth. The dry atmosphere consists almost entirely of nitrogen (78.1% volume mixing ratio) and oxygen (20.9% volume mixing ratio), together with a number of trace gases, such as argon (0.93% volume mixing ratio), helium and radiatively active greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (0.035% volume mixing ratio) and ozone. In addition, the atmosphere contains the greenhouse gas water vapor, whose amounts are highly variable but typically around 1% volume mixing ratio. The atmosphere also contains clouds and aerosols. (IPCC2) B Baseline Emissions A baseline is a measurement, calculation, or time used as a basis for comparison. Baseline emissions are the level of emissions that would occur without policy intervention or without implementation of a project. Baseline estimates are needed to determine the effectiveness of emission reduction programs (also called mitigation strategies). Base Year The starting year for the inventory. Targets for reducing GHG emissions are often defined in relation to the base year. Biogenic Produced by the biological processes of living organisms. Note that we use the term "biogenic" to refer only to recently produced (that is non-fossil) material of biological origin. IPCC guidelines recommend that peat be treated as a fossil carbon because it takes a long time to replace harvested peat. Climate and Sustainability Glossary of Terms 2 Biogeochemical Cycle Movements through the Earth system of key chemical constituents essential to life, such as carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and phosphorus. (NASA) Biomass Either (1) the total mass of living organisms in a given area or of a given species usually expressed as dry weight; or (2) Organic matter consisting of or recently derived from living organisms (especially regarded as fuel) excluding peat. Includes products, by-products and waste derived from such material. (IPCC1) Biomass Waste Organic non-fossil material of biological origin that is a byproduct or a discarded product. "Biomass waste" includes municipal solid waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, sludge waste, agricultural crop byproducts, straw, and other biomass solids, liquids, and gases; but excludes wood and wood-derived fuels (including black liquor), biofuels feedstock, biodiesel, and fuel ethanol. Note: EIA "biomass waste" data also include energy crops grown specifically for energy production, which would not normally constitute waste. (EIA) Black Carbon Operationally defined aerosol species based on measurement of light absorption and chemical reactivity and/or thermal stability; consists of soot, charcoal and/or possible light absorbing refractory organic matter (Charlson and Heintzenberg, 1995, p. 401). (IPCC2) C Carbon Cycle All parts (reservoirs) and fluxes of carbon. The cycle is usually thought of as four main reservoirs of carbon interconnected by pathways of exchange. The reservoirs are the atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere (usually includes freshwater systems), oceans, and sediments (includes fossil fuels). The annual movements of carbon, the carbon exchanges between reservoirs, occur because of various chemical, physical, geological, and biological processes. The ocean contains the largest pool of carbon near the surface of the Earth, but most of that pool is not involved with rapid exchange with the atmosphere. (NASA) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) A naturally occurring gas, and also a by-product of burning fossil fuels and biomass, as well as land-use changes and other industrial processes. It is the principal anthropogenic greenhouse gas that affects the Earth's radiative balance. It is the reference gas against which other greenhouse gases are measured and therefore has a Global Warming Potential of 1. (IPCC2)\ Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2e) A metric used to compare emissions of various greenhouse gases. It is the mass of carbon dioxide that would produce the same estimated radiative forcing as a given mass of another greenhouse gas. Carbon dioxide equivalents are computed by multiplying the mass of the gas emitted by its global warming potential. Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) An international organization that administers a platform for organizations and cities to publicly disclose their environmental impacts, such as climate risk. CDP is one of the approved disclosure platforms utilized by GCoM. Carbon Emissions The release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Primary human sources of the release of carbon dioxide occur from burning oil, coal, and gas for energy use. Climate and Sustainability Glossary of Terms 3 Carbon Equivalent (CE) A metric measure used to compare the emissions of the different greenhouse gases based upon their global warming potential. Carbon equivalents can be calculated from to carbon dioxide equivalents by multiplying the carbon dioxide equivalents by 12/44 (the ratio of the molecular weight of carbon to that of carbon dioxide). The use of carbon equivalent is declining in GHG inventories. Carbon Intensity The amount of carbon by weight emitted per unit of energy consumed. A common measure of carbon intensity is weight of carbon per British thermal unit (Btu) of energy. When there is only one fossil fuel under consideration, the carbon intensity and the emissions coefficient are identical. When there are several fuels, carbon intensity is based on their combined emissions coefficients weighted by their energy consumption levels. (EIA) Carbon Neutrality For the purposes of the Plan, Carbon Neutrality refers to the point at which the organization / organization’s net greenhouse gas emissions reach 0. This will likely be achieved through a combination of reducing emission sources and offsetting and sequestering any remaining emissions. Carbon Sinks A forest, ocean, or other natural environment viewed in terms of its ability to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Carbon Sequestration This refers to the capture of CO2 from the atmosphere and its long term storage in oceans (oceanic carbon sequestration), in biomass and soils (terrestrial carbon sequestration) or in underground reservoirs (geologic carbon sequestration). Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) Greenhouse gases covered under the 1987 Montreal Protocol and used for refrigeration, air conditioning, packaging, insulation, solvents, or aerosol propellants. Because they are not destroyed in the lower atmosphere, CFCs drift into the upper atmosphere where, given suitable conditions, they break down ozone. These gases are being replaced by other compounds, including hydrochlorofluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons, which are greenhouse gases covered under the Kyoto Protocol. (IPCC3) Circular Economy An alternative to a traditional linear economy (make, use, dispose) in which an economy is a regenerative system where resource input and waste are minimized. This is achieved through long-lasting product design, repair, reuse, remanufacturing, and recycling. Circular economy strategies are often cited as systems level approaches to reducing waste generation through product and system design. Climate Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the "average weather" or more rigorously as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These relevant quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system. (IPCC2) Climate Adaptation or Resilience The capacity of a natural environment to prevent, withstand, respond to, and recover from a disruption. The process of adjusting to new climate conditions in order to reduce risks to valued assets. Climate and Sustainability Glossary of Terms 4 Climate Change Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. (IPCC2) Climate Hazard An extreme climate event or condition that can harm human health, livelihoods, or natural resources. It can include abrupt changes to the climate system such as extreme precipitation, storms, droughts, and heat waves. Climate Risk The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values. Risk is often represented as probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these events or trends occur. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability and hazard. (IPCC): Climate Vulnerability Is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its capacity to adapt. Vulnerability = potential impact (sensitivity x exposure) – adaptive capacity (IPCC): Climate Vulnerability Assessment A report used to identify and define the risks posed by climate change and inform adaptation measures needed to combat climate change. Reports can be about a wide range of fields including food security, poverty analysis, and extreme weather events. Cogeneration Cogeneration is an industrial structure, installation, plant, building, or self-generating facility that has sequential or simultaneous generation of multiple forms of useful energy (usually mechanical and thermal) in a single, integrated system. (CARB) Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Combined heat and power is the simultaneous production of both electricity and useful heat for application by the producer or to be sold to other users with the aim of better utilisation of the energy used. Public utilities may utilise part of the heat produced in power plants and sell it for public heating purposes. Industries as auto- producers may sell part of the excess electricity produced to other industries or to electric utilities. (IPCC) Community Solar Solar facilities shared by multiple community subscribers who receive credit on their electricity bills for their share of the power produced. Community solar allows members of a community to share the benefits of solar power on their property without installing it on their own property. Electricity generated by the community solar farm typically costs less than the price from utility companies. Complete Streets A “complete street” is a design approach that requires streets to be designed to support safe, convenient and comfortable travel and access for users of all ages and abilities regardless of their mode of transportation. Climate and Sustainability Glossary of Terms 5 Consistency Consistency means that an inventory should be internally consistent in all its elements over a period of years. An inventory is consistent if the same methodologies are used for the base and all subsequent years and if consistent data sets are used to estimate emissions or removals from sources or sinks. (IPCC) Continuous Emission Monitor (CEM) A type of air emission monitoring system installed to operate continuously inside of a smokestack or other emission source. (CARB) Criteria Air Pollutant An air pollutant for which acceptable levels of exposure can be determined and for which an ambient air quality standard has been set. Examples include: ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and PM10 and PM2.5. The term "criteria air pollutants" derives from the requirement that the U.S. EPA must describe the characteristics and potential health and welfare effects of these pollutants. The U.S. EPA and CARB periodically review new scientific data and may propose revisions to the standards as a result. (CARB) D Deforestation Those practices or processes that result in the change of forested lands to non-forest uses. This is often cited as one of the major causes of the enhanced greenhouse effect for two reasons: 1) the burning or decomposition of the wood releases carbon dioxide; and 2) trees that once removed carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in the process of photosynthesis are no longer present and contributing to carbon storage. (UNFCC) Distillate Fuel Oil A general classification for one of the petroleum fractions produced in conventional distillation operations. It includes diesel fuels and fuel oils. Products known as No. 1, No. 2, and No. 4 diesel fuel are used in on-highway diesel engines, such as those in trucks and automobiles, as well as off-highway engines, such as those in railroad locomotives and agricultural machinery. Products known as No. 1, No. 2, and No. 4 fuel oils are used primarily for space heating and electric power generation. (EIA) E Emissions The release of a substance (usually a gas when referring to the subject of climate change) into the atmosphere. (USEPA1) Emission Factor A coefficient that quantifies the emissions or removals of a gas per unit activity. Emission factors are often based on a sample of measurement data, averaged to develop a representative rate of emission for a given activity level under a given set of operating conditions. (IPCC) Emission Inventory An estimate of the amount of pollutants emitted into the atmosphere from major mobile, stationary, area-wide, and natural source categories over a specific period of time such as a day or a year. (CARB) Emission Rate The weight of a pollutant emitted per unit of time (e.g., tons / year). (CARB) Environmental Justice The fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race, color, national origin, or income with respect to the development, implementation and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations and policies Climate and Sustainability Glossary of Terms 6 Estimation Estimation is the assessment of the value of an unmeasurable quantity using available data and knowledge within stated computational formulas or mathematical models. F Fluorocarbons Carbon-fluorine compounds that often contain other elements such as hydrogen, chlorine, or bromine. Common fluorocarbons include chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). (UNFCC) Flux Either (1) Raw materials, such as limestone, dolomite, lime, and silica sand, which are used to reduce the heat or other energy requirements of thermal processing of minerals (such as the smelting of metals). Fluxes also may serve a dual function as a slagging agent. (2) The rate of flow of any liquid or gas, across a given area; the amount of this crossing a given area in a given time. (e.g., "Flux of CO2 absorbed by forests"). (IPCC) Fossil Fuel Geologic deposits of hydrocarbons from ancient biological origin, such as coal, petroleum and natural gas. Fuel Combustion Fuel combustion is the intentional oxidation of materials within an apparatus that is designed to provide heat or mechanical work to a process, or for use away from the apparatus. (IPCC) Fugitive Emissions Emissions that are not emitted through an intentional release through stack or vent. This can include leaks from industrial plant and pipelines. (IPCC) G Geologic Carbon Sequestration It is the process of injecting CO2 from a source, such as coal-fired electric generating power plant, through a well into the deep subsurface. With proper site selection and management, geologic sequestration could play a major role in reducing emissions of CO2. Research efforts to evaluate the technical aspects of CO2 geologic sequestration are underway. (USEPA4) Global Warming Global warming is an average increase in the temperature of the atmosphere near the Earth's surface and in the troposphere, which can contribute to changes in global climate patterns. Global warming can occur from a variety of causes, both natural and human induced. In common usage, "global warming" often refers to the warming that can occur as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities. Also see Climate Change (USEPA1) Global Warming Potential (GWP) An index, based upon radiative properties of well-mixed greenhouse gases, measuring the radiative forcing of a unit mass of a given well-mixed greenhouse gas in the present-day atmosphere integrated over a chosen time horizon, relative to that of carbon dioxide. The GWP represents the combined effect of the differing times these gases remain in the atmosphere and their relative effectiveness in absorbing outgoing thermal infrared radiation. The Kyoto Protocol is based on GWPs from pulse emissions over a 100-year time frame. (IPCC2) GCOM Global Covenant of Mayors: GCoM is the largest global alliance for city climate leadership, built upon the commitment of over 10,000 cities and Climate and Sustainability Glossary of Terms 7 local governments. The alliance’s mission is to mobilize and support climate and energy action in communities across the world. Green Streets A “green street” is a stormwater management approach that incorporates vegetation, soil, and engineered systems to slow, filter, and cleanse stormwater runoff from impervious surfaces. Greenhouse Effect Trapping and build-up of heat in the atmosphere (troposphere) near the earth's surface. Some of the heat flowing back toward space from the earth's surface is absorbed by water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, and several other gases in the atmosphere and then reradiated back toward the earth's surface. If the atmospheric concentrations of these greenhouse gases rise, the average temperature of the lower atmosphere will gradually increase. (UNFCC) Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories: A robust, transparent and globally-accepted framework that cities and local governments can use to consistently identify, calculate and report on city greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse Gas Any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases include, but are not limited to, water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). (UNFCC) Green Infrastructure An approach to managing precipitation by reducing and treating stormwater at its source while delivering environmental, social, and economic benefits. Stormwater runoff can carry trash, bacteria, and other pollutants and is a major cause of water pollution in urban areas. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The sum of gross value added, at purchasers' prices, by all resident and non-resident producers in the economy, plus any taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products in a country or a geographic region for a given period, normally one year. It is calculated without deducting for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural resources. (IPCC3) H Halocarbons A collective term for the group of partially halogenated organic species, including the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), halons, methyl chloride, methyl bromide, etc. Many of the halocarbons have large Global Warming Potentials. The chlorine and bromine-containing halocarbons are also involved in the depletion of the ozone layer. (IPCC2) Hydrocarbons Strictly defined as molecules containing only hydrogen and carbon. The term is often used more broadly to include any molecules in petroleum which also contains molecules with S, N, or O An unsaturated hydrocarbon is any hydrocarbon containing olefinic or aromatic structures. (IPCC) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Compounds containing only hydrogen, fluorine, and carbon atoms. They were introduced as alternatives to ozone depleting substances in serving many industrial, commercial, and personal needs. HFCs are emitted as by-products of industrial processes and are also used in manufacturing. They do not significantly deplete the stratospheric ozone layer, but they are powerful greenhouse gases with global warming potentials ranging from 140 (HFC-152a) to 11,700 (HFC-23). (USEPA1) Climate and Sustainability Glossary of Terms 8 I ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability: A membership organization for local governments to pursue reductions in carbon pollution and improvements in advancing sustainable urban development. ICLEI’s members and team of experts work together through peer exchange, partnerships and capacity building to create systemic change for urban sustainability. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The IPCC was established jointly by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization in 1988. The purpose of the IPCC is to assess information in the scientific and technical literature related to all significant components of the issue of climate change. The IPCC draws upon hundreds of the world's expert scientists as authors and thousands as expert reviewers. Leading experts on climate change and environmental, social, and economic sciences from some 60 nations have helped the IPCC to prepare periodic assessments of the scientific underpinnings for understanding global climate change and its consequences. With its capacity for reporting on climate change, its consequences, and the viability of adaptation and mitigation measures, the IPCC is also looked to as the official advisory body to the world's governments on the state of the science of the climate change issue. For example, the IPCC organized the development of internationally accepted methods for conducting national greenhouse gas emission inventories. (USEPA1) K Kilowatt Hour (kWh): A measure of electrical energy equivalent to a power consumption of 1,000 watts for one hour. Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, at the Third Session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC. It contains legally binding commitments, in addition to those included in the UNFCCC. Countries included in Annex B of the Protocol (most Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries and countries with economies in transition) agreed to reduce their anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulphur hexafluoride) by at least 5% below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005. (IPCC2) L Land Use and Land Use Change Land use refers to the total of arrangements, activities and inputs undertaken in a certain land cover type (a set of human actions). The term land use is also used in the sense of the social and economic purposes for which land is managed (e.g., grazing, timber extraction and conservation). Land use change refers to a change in the use or management of land by humans, which may lead to a change in land cover. Land cover and land use change may have an impact on the surface albedo, evapotranspiration, sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, or other properties of the climate system and may thus have a radiative forcing and/or other impacts on climate, locally or globally. (IPCC2) Living Streets A “living street” combines the concepts of complete streets and green streets while putting additional focus on quality of life aspects for City residents. LULUCF Acronym for "Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry", a category of activities in GHG inventories. M Megawatt Hour (MWH): A measure of electrical energy equivalent to a power consumption of 1,000,000 watts for one hour. Climate and Sustainability Glossary of Terms 9 Methane (CH4) A hydrocarbon that is a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential most recently estimated at 25 times that of carbon dioxide (CO2). Methane is produced through anaerobic (without oxygen) decomposition of waste in landfills, flooded rice fields, animal digestion, decomposition of animal wastes, production and distribution of natural gas and petroleum, coal production, and incomplete fossil fuel combustion. The GWP is from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Metric Ton The tonne (t) or metric ton, sometimes referred to as a metric tonne, is an international unit of mass. A metric ton is equal to a Megagram (Mg), 1000 kilograms, 2204.6 pounds, or 1.1023 short tons. Million Metric Tons (MMT) Common measurement used in GHG inventories. It is equal to a Teragram (Tg). Mitigation: Actions taken to limit the magnitude or rate of long-term global warming and its related effects. Climate change mitigation generally involves reductions in human emissions of greenhouse gases. Mobile Sources Sources of air pollution such as automobiles, motorcycles, trucks, off-road vehicles, boats, and airplanes. (CARB) Mode Share The percentage of travelers using a particular type of transportation. Modal share is an important component in developing sustainable transport within a city or region because it reveals the level of utilization of various transportation methods. The percentage reflects how well infrastructure, policies, investments, and land-use patterns support different types of travel. Model A model is a quantitatively-based abstraction of a real-world situation which may simplify or neglect certain features to better focus on its more important elements. (IPCC) Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Residential solid waste and some non-hazardous commercial, institutional, and industrial wastes. This material is generally sent to municipal landfills for disposal. (USEPA1) N Natural Sources Non-manmade emission sources, including biological and geological sources, wildfires, and windblown dust. (CARB) Net-zero Emissions (NZE) Building A building or property that generates or offsets all energy consumed. If the City develops a NZE building code, this definition will have to be refined to provide additional guidance on calculating emissions and offsets to achieve net-zero emissions. Nitrogen Fixation Conversion of atmospheric nitrogen gas into forms useful to plants and other organisms by lightning, bacteria, and blue-green algae; it is part of the nitrogen cycle. (UNFCC) Climate and Sustainability Glossary of Terms 10 Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Gases consisting of one molecule of nitrogen and varying numbers of oxygen molecules. Nitrogen oxides are produced in the emissions of vehicle exhausts and from power stations. In the atmosphere, nitrogen oxides can contribute to formation of photochemical ozone (smog), can impair visibility, and have health consequences; they are thus considered pollutants. (NASA) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) A powerful greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of 298 times that of carbon dioxide (CO2). Major sources of nitrous oxide include soil cultivation practices, especially the use of commercial and organic fertilizers, manure management, fossil fuel combustion, nitric acid production, and biomass burning. The GWP is from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). O Ozone (O3) Ozone, the triatomic form of oxygen (O3), is a gaseous atmospheric constituent. In the troposphere, it is created both naturally and by photochemical reactions involving gases resulting from human activities (smog). Tropospheric ozone acts as a greenhouse gas. In the stratosphere, it is created by the interaction between solar ultraviolet radiation and molecular oxygen (O2). Stratospheric ozone plays a dominant role in the stratospheric radiative balance. Its concentration is highest in the ozone layer. (IPCC2) Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) A compound that contributes to stratospheric ozone depletion. Ozone-depleting substances (ODS) include CFCs, HCFCs, halons, methyl bromide, carbon tetrachloride, and methyl chloroform. ODS are generally very stable in the troposphere and only degrade under intense ultraviolet light in the stratosphere. When they break down, they release chlorine or bromine atoms, which then deplete ozone. (IPCC) P Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) A group of human-made chemicals composed of carbon and fluorine only. These chemicals (predominantly CF4 and C2F6) were introduced as alternatives, along with hydrofluorocarbons, to the ozone depleting substances. In addition, PFCs are emitted as by-products of industrial processes and are also used in manufacturing. PFCs do not harm the stratospheric ozone layer, but they are powerful greenhouse gases: CF4 has a global warming potential (GWP) of 7,390 and C2F6 has a GWP of 12,200. The GWP is from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Photosynthesis The process by which plants take carbon dioxide from the air (or bicarbonate in water) to build carbohydrates, releasing oxygen in the process. There are several pathways of photosynthesis with different responses to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. (IPCC2) Point Sources Specific points of origin where pollutants are emitted into the atmosphere such as factory smokestacks. (CARB) Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) A power purchase agreement (PPA), or electricity power agreement, is a contract between two parties; one party generates electricity (the seller) and the other party looks to purchase electricity (the buyer). Individual customers and organizations may enter into PPAs with individual developers or may join together to seek better prices as a group. PPAs can allow longer term commitments to renewable energy as well as a form of “direct” investing in new renewable energy generation. Property-Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) Climate and Sustainability Glossary of Terms 11 A program created for financing energy efficiency and renewable improvements on private property. Private property can include residential, commercial or industrial properties. Improvements can include energy efficiency, renewable energy and water conservation upgrades to a building. Process Emissions Emissions from industrial processes involving chemical transformations other than combustion. (IPCC) R Radiative Forcing A change in the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared (i.e., thermal) radiation. Without any radiative forcing, solar radiation coming to the Earth would continue to be approximately equal to the infrared radiation emitted from the Earth. The addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere traps an increased fraction of the infrared radiation, reradiating it back toward the surface of the Earth and thereby creates a warming influence. (UNFCC) Reforestation Planting of forests on lands that have previously contained forests but that have been converted to some other use. (IPCC2) Regeneration The act of renewing tree cover by establishing young trees, naturally or artificially - note regeneration usually maintains the same forest type and is done promptly after the previous stand or forest was removed. (CSU) Renewable Energy Energy resources that are naturally replenishing such as solar, wind, hydro and geothermal energy. Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) A market-based instrument that represents the property rights to the environmental, social and other non-power attributes of renewable electricity generation. RECs are issued when one megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity is generated and delivered to the electricity grid from a renewable energy resource. The single largest category of reductions in Evanston’s emissions has been through the purchase of RECs. Residence Time Average time spent in a reservoir by an individual atom or molecule. Also, this term is used to define the age of a molecule when it leaves the reservoir. With respect to greenhouse gases, residence time usually refers to how long a particular molecule remains in the atmosphere. (UNFCC) Reservoir Either (1) a component or components of the climate system where a greenhouse gas or a precursor of a greenhouse gas is stored; or (2) Water bodies regulated for human activities (energy production, irrigation, navigation, recreation etc.) where substantial changes in water area due to water level regulation may occur. (IPCC) Respiration The process whereby living organisms convert organic matter to carbon dioxide, releasing energy and consuming molecular oxygen. (IPCC2) Retro-commissioning The systematic process to improve an existing building’s performance ensuring the building controls are running efficiently and balancing the designed use and the actual use of the building. Climate and Sustainability Glossary of Terms 12 Ride-share The practice of sharing transportation in the form of carpooling or vanpooling. It is typically an arrangement made through a ride-matching service that connects drivers with riders. S Scope 1: Scope 1 includes emissions being released within the city limits resulting from combustion of fossil fuels and from waste decomposition in the landfill and wastewater treatment plant. Scope 2: Scope 2 includes emissions produced outside the city that are induced by consumption of electrical energy within the city limits. Scope 3: Scope 3 includes emissions of potential policy relevance to local government operations that can be measured and reported but do not qualify as Scope 1 or 2. This includes, but is not limited to, outsourced operations and employee commute. Short Ton Common measurement for a ton in the United States. A short ton is equal to 2,000 lbs or 0.907 metric tons. (USEPA1) Sink Any process, activity or mechanism that removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol from the atmosphere. (IPCC2) Social Cost of Carbon The social cost of carbon is a measure of the economic harm from climate change impacts, expressed as the dollar value of the total damages from emitting one ton of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Solar Radiation Electromagnetic radiation emitted by the Sun. It is also referred to as shortwave radiation. Solar radiation has a distinctive range of wavelengths (spectrum) determined by the temperature of the Sun, peaking in visible wavelengths. (IPCC2) Source Any process, activity or mechanism that releases a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol into the atmosphere. (IPCC2) Stationary Sources Non-mobile sources such as power plants, refineries, and manufacturing facilities which emit air pollutants. (CARB) Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) A compound composed of one sulfur and two oxygen molecules. Sulfur dioxide emitted into the atmosphere through natural and anthropogenic processes is changed in a complex series of chemical reactions in the atmosphere to sulfate aerosols. These aerosols are believed to result in negative radiative forcing (i.e., tending to cool the Earth's surface) and do result in acid deposition (e.g., acid rain). (UNFCC) Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) A colorless gas soluble in alcohol and ether, slightly soluble in water. A very powerful greenhouse gas with a global warming potential most recently estimated at 22,800 times that of carbon dioxide (CO2). SF6 is used primarily in Climate and Sustainability Glossary of Terms 13 electrical transmission and distribution systems and as a dielectric in electronics. This GWP is from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). T Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration It is the process through which carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere is absorbed by trees, plants and crops through photosynthesis, and stored as carbon in biomass (tree trunks, branches, foliage and roots) and soils. The term "sinks" is also used to refer to forests, croplands, and grazing lands, and their ability to sequester carbon. Agriculture and forestry activities can also release CO2 to the atmosphere. Therefore, a carbon sink occurs when carbon sequestration is greater than carbon releases over some time period. (USEPA3) Therm: A unit of measure for energy that is equivalent to 100,000 British Thermal units, or roughly the energy in 100 cubic feet of natural gas. Often used for measuring natural gas usage for billing purposes. Total Organic Gases (TOG) Gaseous organic compounds, including reactive organic gases and the relatively unreactive organic gases such as methane. (CARB) Transparency Transparency means that the assumptions and methodologies used for an inventory should be clearly explained to facilitate replication and assessment of the inventory by users of the reported information. The transparency of inventories is fundamental to the success of the process for the communication and consideration of information. (IPCC) Trend The trend of a quantity measures its change over a time period, with a positive trend value indicating growth in the quantity, and a negative value indicating a decrease. It is defined as the ratio of the change in the quantity over the time period, divided by the initial value of the quantity, and is usually expressed either as a percentage or a fraction. (IPCC) U Urban Tree Canopy Describes the makeup and characteristics of trees within the urban environment. V VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled: A unit used to measure vehicle travel made by private vehicles, including passenger vehicles, truck, vans and motorcycles. Each mile traveled is counted as one vehicle mile regardless of the number of persons in the vehicle. W Water Vapor The most abundant greenhouse gas; it is the water present in the atmosphere in gaseous form. Water vapor is an important part of the natural greenhouse effect. While humans are not significantly increasing its concentration, it contributes to the enhanced greenhouse effect because the warming influence of greenhouse gases leads to a positive water vapor feedback. In addition to its role as a natural greenhouse gas, water vapor plays an important role in regulating the temperature of the planet because clouds form when excess water vapor in the atmosphere condenses to form ice and water droplets and precipitation. (UNFCC) Weather Atmospheric condition at any given time or place. It is measured in terms of such things as wind, temperature, Climate and Sustainability Glossary of Terms 14 humidity, atmospheric pressure, cloudiness, and precipitation. In most places, weather can change from hour-to- hour, day-to-day, and season-to-season. Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the "average weather", or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system. A simple way of remembering the difference is that climate is what you expect (e.g. cold winters) and 'weather' is what you get (e.g. a blizzard). (USEPA1) Z Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) A vehicle that does not emit harmful emissions during operation. Harmful emissions can have a negative impact on human health and the environment. Electric (battery-powered) cars, electric trains, hydrogen- fueled vehicles, bicycles, and carriages are considered to produce zero emissions. Zero Waste A cyclical system in which products are designed for reuse, which creates no waste. A zero waste system eliminates the volume and toxicity of waste and materials and conserves current resources through reuse. 2515 White Bear Ave, A8 Suite 177 Maplewood, MN 55109 Contact: Ted Redmond tredmond@palebluedot..llc Prepared By: