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HomeMy WebLinkAbout02 Community Profile Chapter 12-31-19 2-1 2. Community Profile Chapter Highlights • The City of Edina is expected to continue to grow in population, households, and jobs. • Demographic trends, such as an increase in children and the overall aging of the population, will shape the future of the city. • The population is still fairly racially homogenous and affluent, but is steadily becoming more diverse, particularly with newer and younger residents. • Edina’s population is older than the state overall, with more than one third of Edina households including at least one older adult. • Edina’s median household income is well above metro and state averages. • Household sizes are declining overall, but there is evidence of the appeal of Edina to families with school aged children, with a large share of married couple families and parents less likely to be working outside the home. • The housing stock continues to diversify over time, though housing affordability remains a consistent challenge, especially for first time homeowners and seniors, due to very high land values. • Edina retains its role as a regional employment destination, building on its centralized location and established economic base. Introduction This chapter of the comprehensive plan provides data trends and future projections of basic demographic elements including population, housing, and employment. The intent is to provide context that will inform both the vision for growth in the community, and the recommended direction for policy. Historical data are provided where possible to show how the city has changed over the past few decades and suggest how things may continue to change in the future. Planning Context Since the early days of the community, Edina has been on the forefront of planning for the city’s growth and change. In 1928, it was the first village in the state to appoint a planning commission. In 1957, it was the first municipality to hire a full-time planning director. The city’s purview has covered everything from neighborhood character to major development projects, such as the nation’s first enclosed regional mall. Definition: Forecasts The 2040 population, household, and employment forecasts for Edina were derived from regional forecasts developed by the Metropolitan Council. The regional forecasting process considered the region’s position within the national economy, focusing on economic growth and how that drives population growth. Once the regional forecasts were completed, additional modeling was used to assign growth to specific communities. This analysis considered how demographics, policies, and land availability affect real estate decisions. The City of Edina has worked with the Metropolitan Council to further refine the initial forecasts, based on more detailed community knowledge. The forecasts have been adjusted since the 2015 System Statement values based on observed growth trends and expectations. Forecasts are intended to represent expected growth patterns but are not to be interpreted as goals or targets for the community to meet. Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-2 In terms of more recent planning history, this comprehensive plan updates the city’s 2008 Comprehensive Plan. Since that plan was completed, there have been a number of other plans that focus on particular topics and inform the development of this comprehensive plan update. As part of this most recent comprehensive plan update, the city chose to undertake a series of small area plans for key areas of growth and change throughout the city. These provide additional detailed guidance for comprehensive plan topics in the areas of the city that are most likely to see redevelopment and infill. The following plans and policies have been used to inform the development of this comprehensive plan update: • Active Routes to School Comprehensive Plan (2014) • Vision Edina Community Benchmark Profile, Scenarios, and Engagement Report (2014) • Vision Edina Strategic Vision and Framework (2015) • GrandView Development Framework (2012) • Small Area Plan for the Wooddale-Valley View Neighborhood Node (2015) • Affordable Housing Policy (2015) • Living Streets Plan (2015) • Electricity Action Plan (2016) • Pedestrian and Bicycle Master Plan (2018) • Greater Southdale District Plan (2018) • Small Area Plan for the City of Edina’s 44th & France Neighborhood Node (2018) • Small Area Plan for the City of Edina’s 70th & Cahill Neighborhood Node (2018) • Small Area Plan for the City of Edina’s 50th & France District (2019) Planning Area Designation Edina is designated as an Urban community in the Metropolitan Council’s Thrive MSP 2040 plan. Figure 2.1 shows the extent of this designation for the city, as well as that of surrounding communities. The Metropolitan Council uses these designations to guide regional growth and development, establish land use expectations including overall development densities and patterns, and outline the respective roles of the Council and individual communities, along with strategies for planning for forecasted growth. As stated in the regional plan: Urban communities experienced rapid development during the post-World War II era and exhibit the transition toward the development stage dominated by the influence of the automobile. Urban communities are expected to plan for forecasted population and household growth at average densities of at least 10 units per acre for new development and redevelopment. In addition, Urban communities are expected to target opportunities for more intensive development near regional transit investments at densities and in a manner articulated in the 2040 Transportation Policy Plan. This designation guides how a city with this designation will to grow. This involves anticipating the type of housing and employment uses that are appropriate for the community and can accommodate the forecasted growth, should such growth occur, and how this relates to plans for transit, potentially other infrastructure and public services. Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-3 Figure 2.1: Community Designation Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-4 Forecasted Growth Population, household, and employment forecasts are long range projections of expected growth, largely based on market-driven assumptions. The Metropolitan Council undertakes these long-range projections for the seven-county metropolitan area as part of their regional planning mandate. The forecasting process analyzes the seven-county region’s position within the larger, national economy. The region's business climate and competitive advantages determine economic and employment levels which, in turn, drive population growth by attracting people to the Twin Cities. Additional land use modeling locates potential future population, households, and employment in specific communities within the region. The model looks at how demographics, regional policies, and available land affect real estate supply and demand. Forecasts are meant to be realistic assumptions that can be used to guide investments in infrastructure and public services. They are not goals, aspirations, or targets. At the regional level, they are used to forecast resource needs for regional parks, transportation, and water resources, as well as to direct investments in affordable housing should demographic assumptions be realized. At the local level, they can also be used to forecast need for capital improvements, public services, and other public investments to ensure that the community is fiscally sustainable and maintains a high quality of life. The Metropolitan Council periodically adjusts forecasts based on new data to ensure they are as accurate as possible. The forecasts used in this plan have been modified from Edina’s 2015 System Statement totals, reflecting new information about development that has occurred since 2015. Specifically, the near-term development in Edina and several other cities has outpaced initial estimates due to a robust economy, particularly in terms of market demand for new multifamily housing in developed communities. The modifications shown here were recommended by Metropolitan Council staff to ensure that actual population, household, and employment totals would not outpace the forecasted ones. As Edina is already fully developed, this plan reflects how expected increases in regional population, households, and jobs will be accommodated through redevelopment and infill within designated growth and change areas. Historical population and household growth trends in Edina have been fairly steady since 1970. Employment, after surging in earlier years, has followed a similar pattern. The ratio of jobs to population has remained fairly high, reflecting the role of portions of Edina as a regional employment center. In the 24-year period from 2016-2040, population is projected to grow about 23%, households 34%, and employment 7%. This shift towards residential growth over employment reflects both availability of redevelopment sites and overall demand for development in the area. Table 2.1: Population, Household, and Employment Projections 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016 2020 2030 2040 Population 44,046 46,073 46,070 47,425 47,941 51,804 55,000 60,000 63,600 Households 13,005 17,961 19,860 20,996 20,672 22,309 24,000 27,700 29,800 Employment 20,240 36,061 44,534 52,991 47,457 52,330 51,800 54,000 56,100 Source: Metropolitan Council, US Census Bureau Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-5 Source: Metropolitan Council, US Census Bureau Population and Households The total population has increased since 1970. Growth has not been steady – there were significant increases in the 1970s, 1990s, and 2010s, but little change during the 1980’s and 2000’s. The total population in Edina in 2016 was estimated at around 51,804, according to the US Census. This is an increase of over 8% from 2010. From 2000-2010, Edina only grew about 1%. This reflects the fact that recent growth has been happening opportunistically based on market conditions and the availability of redevelopment and infill sites, within the context of a largely developed community. Despite the recent uptick in growth, the city has been outgrown by several cities in the region in the past 10 years. While the 2030 plan indicated it was the 11th largest city in the Twin Cities metropolitan area by population, it is now the 16th largest. This is largely a function of land availability and market conditions, which vary across the region. Regardless, the city’s population is forecasted to continue to growth through 2040. Compared to adjacent developed communities, Edina’s population is expected to grow from 2010 to 2040 at a rate similar to Eden Prairie. Among other things, this rate reflects estimated growth in Edina since 2010. 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016 2020 2030 2040 Figure 2.2: Edina Population, Household, and Employment Counts and Forecasts Population Households Employment Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-6 Source: US Census Bureau Source: Metropolitan Council, US Census Bureau Age The age distribution of Edina residents has distinctive patterns as well. Between 2000-2016, there have been increases in the number of children and youth under 20 and in the middle aged 45-64 cohort. This points in part to the appeal of Edina to families with school-aged children based on the strength of the school district. (See the Community Facilities chapter for more discussion on school district planning and coordination.) While overall trends have pointed to the aging of the population, this is evidence of the unique appeal of Edina to families with young children. 44,046 46,073 46,070 47,425 47,941 51,804 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016Number of ResidentsFigure 2.3: Total Population of Edina, 1970-2016 33% 13% 36% 20% 24% 7% 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Edina Bloomington Eden Prairie Minneapolis Minnetonka Richfield St. Louis Park Figure 2.4: Population Forecasts of Edina and Adjacent Communities, 2010-2040 (with forecasted percent change 2010-2040) Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-7 Source: US Census Bureau The population over 65 fluctuated somewhat during the same time period. That said, the percentage of 65+ residents in Edina remains higher than in surrounding communities, but slightly less in 2016 than it was in 2000. Despite gains in people under 20, the median age in Edina has continued to increase from 44.5 in 2000 to 45.1 in 2010 to an estimated 46.7 in 2016. While there have been some gains in the number of children and youth, the overall trend toward an aging population continues. Source: US Census Bureau The trend data in the following graph shows the overall pattern of the population over 65 and under 20. The 2010 Census represents a departure from the trend, but 2016 does not continue the new direction. 0 2K 4K 6K 8K 10K 12K 14K 16K Under 20 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-64 65+Number of ResidentsYears of Age Figure 2.5: Age of Edina Residents, 2000-2016 2000 2010 2016 20.7%18.8% 10.8%8.8% 19.5% 14.9%13.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Figure 2.6: Percentage of Residents over 65 Years of Age Edina and Adjacent Communities, 2016 Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-8 Source: US Census Bureau, City of Edina Household Size Household size is an important factor in determining the expected rate of population growth. Historically, average household size has been on the decline in the Twin Cities area, primarily because families are having fewer children than in previous generations. A declining household size has numerous implications, including the fact that it takes more housing units to house the same sized population, so the pace of housing unit development may surpass the pace of population growth. Edina’s household size has declined in recent years, and this is expected to continue. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016 Figure 2.7: Percentage of Edina Population Under 20 and Over 65 Years of Age, 1960-2016 Residents Under 20 Residents Over 65 Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-9 Source: Metropolitan Council, US Census Bureau For the most part, trends in household and population growth from 2000-2016 show a pattern of declining household size. However, as evidenced by the chart below, the 2000-2010 period was an exception to the rule for both Edina and Richfield, when population grew faster than households. Source: US Census Bureau 3.69 3.39 2.57 2.32 2.24 2.31 2.27 2.21 2.17 0 1 2 3 4 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Figure 2.8: Average Size of Edina Households, 1990-2040 6.3%4.5% 21.5% 10.8%9.2% 0.7% 12.8% 9.2% 3.7% 15.0% 9.8% 2.8% 5.5% 10.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% Edina Bloomington Eden Prairie Minneapolis Minnetonka Richfield St. Louis Park Figure 2.9: Comparison in Percentages of Household and Population Change, 2000 -2016 Percent Change in Number of Households 2000-2016 Percent Change in Number of Residents 2000-2016 Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-10 Resident Migration According to the American Community Survey (ACS), as of 2016 around 88.6% of residents in Edina were living the same house that they were one year previously. Meanwhile, 10.0% were living elsewhere in the country, and 1.4% were living in another country. The percentage staying in one place has increased slightly since 2010, when 87% were in the same house after one year – though this may be within the ACS margin of error. Approximately 10.9% of the overall population of Edina is foreign born, and 13% speak a language other than English. Historically, immigrant populations to the country and region have been younger than native born residents – and more likely to have children. This is reflected in data that shows the median age of Edina residents by migration type in recent years. It is notable that the median age of recent arrivals from abroad is nearly half that of people who have lived in the same house for the past year. Source: US Census Bureau Race and Ethnicity While the majority of the population in Edina is non-Hispanic white, around 86.5% as of 2016, there has been a steady trend over the past decades towards racial and ethnic diversity. This is consistent with the changing composition of the region and state. The largest growth in terms of a share of the population since 2000 has been in the Asian population, which has gone from 3% to 7% of the population. The two or more races category was added in 2000, so it is not possible to compare that category in previous years. 45.3 47.5 33.0 40.2 32.4 27.9 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 All Residents Same house 1 year ago Moved; within same county Moved; from different county, same state Moved; from different state Moved; from abroad Figure 2.10: Median Age of Edina Residents by Migration Type in Last Five Years, 2015 Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-11 Table 2.2: Race and Ethnicity Trends in Edina 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016 White 98.4% 97.2% 94.3% 88.1% 86.5% Black or African American 0.5% 0.7% 1.2% 3.0% 2.2% American Indian and Alaska Native 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Asian 0.8% 1.7% 3.0% 6.1% 7.1% Other Race 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 1.8% 2 or More Races n/a n/a 1.1% 1.8% 2.2% Hispanic or Latino 0.5% 0.7% 1.1% 2.1% 3.0% Source: US Census Source: US Census 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016 Figure 2.11: Race and Ethnicity in Edina White Black or African American American Indian and Alaska Native Asian Other Race 2+ Races Hispanic or Latino Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-12 Household Type Household type in Edina has been slowly shifting toward households with children, and away from families without children and people living alone. This may be a generational change, as empty nesters move out of their long-time homes, and are replaced by families with young children. The numbers of both married families with children and unmarried families with children have increased while the numbers of families without children and persons living alone have decreased. Source: US Census Median Income In 2016, the median household income in Edina was $91,800. Median incomes in Edina are well above regional and state levels and have been consistently so over time. The only community in the vicinity to have a potentially higher median income is Eden Prairie. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Families without Children Lived Alone Married Families with Children Unmarried Families with Children Non-Family Households Figure 2.12: Household Type in Edina 1990 2000 2010 2016 Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-13 Housing Units In 2016, Edina contained about 22,639 housing units, 62% of which were single family and 38% of which were multi-family. Most homes are owner occupied (72%). The majority of Edina’s housing stock has remained single family detached, though with a growing percentage of multifamily units. As there is currently no land in the city planned for single family expansion (new units mostly just replace those that were already there, resulting in no net gain in units), the multifamily percentage is likely to continue to grow with future infill development. However, since most of the multifamily units are concentrated in a relatively small number of larger buildings, a substantial majority of residential land area in the city is expected to remain as single family detached. Source: US Census Bureau $- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 Figure 2.13: Median Household Income, 2016 56% 7% 6% 31% Figure 2.14: Edina Housing Units by Percentage, 2016 Single-family detached Single-family attached or duplexMulti-family with 3-19 units Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-14 Housing Age Edina’s housing stock spans around a century of growth, from the earliest developments in the Morningside area, to current day redevelopment projects. Nearly 60% of the structures in Edina were built between 1950 and 1979 in a period of rapid suburban expansion in the region. The median year structures were built is 1968. This diverse range of housing stock gives the community character and variety. While there are some intact areas with distinct features of a particular era, this has been increasingly changing over time with renovations and infill development. See the Heritage Preservation chapter for more discussion on the unique character of historic development patterns in Edina. Additionally, see the Housing chapter for more discussion on what role existing housing plays in preserving housing affordability. Edina has seen an increase in new housing units permitted since 2012. Many of the permitted units are multifamily housing. This increase has helped keep the city’s median age of a dwelling unit down. Figure 2.15 shows the age of buildings (including residential and non-residential) citywide. The pattern on the map shows how the city grew in concentric circles until the 1980s, at which point growth was in primarily in the form of infill. Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-15 Figure 2.15: Housing Year Built Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-16 Source: US Census Bureau Persons Per Household and Bedrooms Per Structure One method of assessing the current housing stock is to compare the size of households and the size of housing units. The following graph shows that households with 1-2 members outnumber structures with a similar number of bedrooms. However, there are fewer 3-4 member households than the quantity of 3-4 bedroom dwelling units. Although it is common for a household to reside in a dwelling where the number of members does not match the number of bedrooms, the mismatch between the large number of 1-2 person households and the relative scarcity of 1-2 bedroom dwelling units indicates that availability or affordability of these housing units may be a concern for some households who desire such a unit. In 2016, 66% of households in the city were 1-2 member households while about 43% of units were 0-2 bedroom dwelling units. This gap between household size and number of bedrooms has decreased 6% since 2000, which may be due to increased construction of 0-2 bedroom housing units or a decrease in families without children and persons living alone. 1%1% 7% 4% 14% 19% 20% 21% 6% 8% Figure 2.16: Age of Edina Housing, 2016 Percentage Built by Decade Built 2014 or later Built 2010 to 2013 Built 2000 to 2009 Built 1990 to 1999 Built 1980 to 1989 Built 1970 to 1979 Built 1960 to 1969 Built 1950 to 1959 Built 1940 to 1949 Built 1939 or earlier Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-17 Source: US Census Bureau Housing Density Compared to other cities and Hennepin County, Edina has a moderate level of households per acre. Edina averages 2.1 households per acre, which is higher than the countywide average of 1.36, and reflects its predominantly single-family residential character. St. Louis Park and Richfield have higher household per acre densities than Edina due in part to smaller average lot sizes. This calculation considers all land in city/county limits, not only areas zoned for residential or mixed use purposes. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Figure 2.17: Comparison of Persons in Household and Bedrooms per Structure City of Edina, 2016 Persons in Household Bedrooms per Structure Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-18 Source: Housing and Transportation Affordability Index, Center for Neighborhood Technology Figure 2.19 shows the intensity of housing units per acre citywide. It is notable that higher housing densities are concentrated in a small number of areas, particularly Southdale, Grandview, 50th & France, and a few others. 2.1 3.2 3.34 1.63 1.15 1.28 1.36 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Edina St. Louis Park Richfield Bloomington Eden Prairie Minnetonka HennepinCounty Figure 2.18: Households per Acre Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-19 Figure 2.19: Housing Units Per Acre Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-20 Tenure and Vacancy The percentage of owner occupied homes is about 72%. This proportion has been decreasing slightly since 2000. This trend is a regional one, reflecting the turnover of some properties to rental, and the construction of new rental units. The 2010 number may also show the effects of the recession, which suppressed home purchasing activity. Source: Metropolitan Council Tabulations of ACS and Census Data Residential vacancy rates have remained fairly low throughout this time, at around 5% in 2016. Current rental market data suggests it may be even lower than that at the time of this writing. 76.4%76.5%74.8%72.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 2000 2010 2016 Figure 2.20: Homeownership Rates Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-21 Source: Metropolitan Council Tabulations of ACS and Census Data Length of Residency Length of residency is important for building community cohesion in a neighborhood and strengthening community engagement. The longer residents live in a neighborhood or a city, the more opportunity they have to develop relationships with neighbors and become involved in local organizations. The largest proportion of homeowners in Edina moved into their current house between 2000 and 2009, while the largest proportion of renters moved in between 2010 and 2014. Source: American Community Survey 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 1990 2000 2010 2016 Figure 2.21: Tenure and Vacancy Owner Renter Vacant 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1979 or earlier 1980 to 1989 1990 to 1999 2000 to 2009 2010 to 2014 2015 or later Figure 2.22: Housing Tenure by Year Moved In, 2016 Owner Renter Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-22 Building Permits Single family unit construction Edina has been relatively consistent since 2000, averaging around 100 per year over the past 6 years. However, this does not represent a significant net number of new units, since typically these new units are replacing teardowns. There have been several large multifamily developments constructed in Edina since 2012. At the regional level, high amenity locations located near transit, jobs, and amenities have been the most attractive for developers. Portions of Edina that meet that description have seen multiple proposals for multifamily and mixed use development. Combined, these trends show strength in market demand for both single family and larger multifamily residential in Edina. Figure 2.23 shows the number of units in permitted projects from 2000-2017. Source: Metropolitan Council Tabulations Building Condition Figure 2.24 shows the condition of buildings in Edina. This is collected on a multi-year cycle by the City of Edina. Since not every building is surveyed every year, it may not be completely up to date for any given structure. Nonetheless, it does give a reasonably good picture of overall conditions. For the most part, buildings in the city are in average-to-good condition, with just a few scattered exceptions. As with other patterns, the oldest and most historic areas stand out as exceptional – though there are many very well-maintained properties throughout. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Figure 2.23: New Housing Units Permitted Single-Family Detached Townhomes (single-family attached) Duplex, Triplex, Quad Multifamily (5 units or more) Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-23 Figure 2.24: Building Condition Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-24 Housing Values Median housing values in Edina have increased 171% since 1990, not accounting for inflation (48% increase in value from 1990 to 2016, adjusting to 2016 dollars). In 2016, the median housing value was about $424,500, which is at least 20% more than median housing values in neighboring communities. Historically, Edina has had higher median housing values than neighboring communities, shown below in Figure 2.27. This reflects the attractiveness of the city to homebuyers, particularly related to school quality and community amenities. Source: Metropolitan Council Tabulations Source: Metropolitan Council Tabulations 156,400 248,500 408,200 424,500 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 1990 2000 2010 2016 Figure 2.25 Median Value of Owner Occupied Units 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 Edina Bloomington Eden Prairie Minnetonka Richfield St. Louis Park Figure 2.26: Median Housing Values 1990 2000 2010 2016 Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-25 Figure 2.27: Owner Occupied Units by Estimated Market Value Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-26 According to the standard benchmark of affordability, by which a household does not spend more than 30% of its gross income on housing costs, the median household income needed to afford Edina’s median-priced home in 2016 was about $127,350 per year. As the following graph illustrates, most householders aged 25-64 can afford a median-priced home in Edina. The median income for householders age 45-64 is somewhat below that threshold, which may limit housing options or contribute to housing cost burden among these households. Due to changes in data collection, a finer level of analysis cannot be obtained to know if certain age groups within these larger categories cannot afford a median valued home in Edina. The median incomes of both young and senior households in Edina are well below the $127,350 required to afford a median value housing unit. There has been some effort to address affordable housing needs in Edina through the construction of affordable units. There are nearly 400 affordable units in the city for elderly residents, which make up most of the city’s affordable housing units. See the Housing chapter for additional discussion on this topic. Source: US Census Bureau While median housing values are higher in Edina than surrounding communities, median gross rent is more comparable to neighboring communities, specifically Eden Prairie and Minnetonka. In 2016, the median rent in Edina was roughly $1,280. $92,885 $136,250 $123,454 $47,123 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 Under 25 25-44 45-64 65 or Older Figure 2.28: Median Household Income by Age of Householder, 2016 Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-27 Source: US Census Bureau Housing and Transportation Affordability Index The Housing and Affordability Index is produced by the Center for Neighborhood Technology and uses US Census Bureau data to describe costs and sustainability at a neighborhood or city level. As a benchmark, the Center recommends households spend no more than 45% of their income on housing and transportation, supporting the 30% housing affordability threshold and budgeting another 15% for transportation needs. Average costs in Edina are well above these recommendations. The average Edina household spends 57% of their income on housing and transportation. Edina has higher housing costs than neighboring communities and the averages for both Hennepin County and the 7 County Metropolitan Area, with households spending an average of 38% of their income on housing. Average transportation costs for Edina residents are similar to all other cities and regions compared (18%). 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1990 2000 2010 2016 Figure 2.29: Median Gross Rent Edina Bloomington Eden Prairie Minnetonka Richfield St. Louis Park Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-28 Source: Housing and Transportation Affordability Index, Center for Neighborhood Technology The high housing costs in Edina tend to come from owner occupied housing units. Edina’s median owner costs are at least $200 more per month than comparable communities. Median rent is still high (second most expensive city) but is more comparable to other cities, Hennepin County, and the Metropolitan Area. Source: Housing and Transportation Affordability Index, Center for Neighborhood Technology 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Edina St. Louis Park Richfield Bloomington Eden Prairie Minnetonka HennepinCounty Region (MetCouncil) Figure 2.30: Average Housing and Transportation Costs Average Housing Cost (% Income)Average Transportation Cost (% Income) Total Average H+T Costs (% Income) $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 Edina St. LouisPark Richfield Bloomington Eden Prairie Minnetonka HennepinCounty Region (MetCouncil) Figure 2.31: Median Housing Costs Median Monthly Rent Median Monthly Owner Costs Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-29 Housing Market Conditions The Star Tribune prepared a housing market analysis for 2016, comparing all communities in the seven county metro that had 100 or more sales. This index and comparison were based on the average price per square foot, average number of days on the market, percent of the list price received by the seller, and the share of all distressed sales (foreclosure and short sale). Using these metrics, Edina’s housing market is the slowest/coolest compared to neighboring communities, receiving the lowest index score among communities considered. Richfield has the “hottest” market both among neighboring communities and metro wide. Edina homes, on average, have the longest average days on the market and sellers are receiving a lower percentage of their original asking price than homes and sellers in neighboring communities. All comparable communities and Edina have selling prices that are 95% or more of the original price and only differ by 1% or 2%. On the other hand, average price per square foot in Edina has already returned to peak values seen in 2006. In 2016, price per square foot in Edina was $180 (same as 2006). Price per square foot bottomed out in 2011 at $146 and have been gradually increasing over the past 5 years. Other communities have not returned to peak values; instead, most cities are seeing values closer to 2003 or 2004 numbers. This may partially explain Edina’s lower rate of change in average price per square foot compared to neighboring communities, since the city has already returned to peak values. Additionally, only 2% of Edina’s housing sales were considered distressed, which is the lowest among comparable communities. Source: Star Tribune Trulia.com provides more detailed housing market data for both median home sale price and median rent. Overall, median home sale prices have increased 25% since 2012. The biggest increases over the past five years have been in three-bedroom homes while two-bedroom home prices have increased the most in the past year. One-bedroom homes have decreased in median sale price, down 72% from prices in 2012. Median rent has decreased 18% in the past year, on average. In April 2017, the most recent month detailed data is available for, the median rent for all units was $2,980. This includes both apartment and single family home rentals. 0 20 40 60 80 100 Figure 2.32: Average Number of Days on the Market, 2016 $180 $129 $137 $143 $133 $158 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 Figure 2.33: Average Price per Square Foot, 2016 Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-30 Source: Trulia Source: Trulia -80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60% 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4 Bedroom All Property Figure 2.34: Trulia Median Sale Price % Change (5 year)% Change (1 year) $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4 Bedroom All Property Figure 2.35: Median Rent, April 2017 Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-31 Census Tract Analysis Table 2.3 includes census tract level data on housing values, costs, and the affordability gap. The census tracts in Edina with the lowest median incomes are located along the borders of the city: tract 235.01, the north/northwest corner of the city bordering Hopkins and St. Louis Park; and tracts 238.02, 240.04, and 240.05 in the southeast corner, bordering Minneapolis and Richfield. Some of the same tracts also experience the most housing cost burden: 240.04, 238.02, and 235.01. 30% of householders in these tracts experience cost burden. About 15% of households in these tracts are severely cost burdened, spending 50% or more of their income on housing. The tracts with higher percentages of older homes are located in the northeast corner of the city, bordering Minneapolis and St. Louis Park (231 and 236). The greatest number of new housing units built since 2010 have been built in the southeast corner of the city (bordering Richfield) and the northwest quadrant (north of Highway 62 and west of Highway 100). Tracts 240.04 and 240.05 also have the highest percentages of residents over 65. There are a couple of senior living facilities in these tracts, also explaining some of the lower incomes. Almost 20% of owner occupied residents in tract 231 have lived in their homes since 1979 (over 40 years). Tracts 239.01 and 240.03 also have greater proportions of long term residents, with about 16% of owner households living in their homes since at least 1979. Tract 235.01 has the longest rental tenure. Tracts 235.02, 239.01, and 240.05 have had the largest number of new owner occupied residents since 2015. The southeast corner of the city has had the largest number of new renters since 2015. (Tracts 240.03, 240.04 and 240.05). Tract 240.03 has seen the most international migration of all census tracts across 2010 and 2015. Tract 240.04 saw the most international migration in 2010 but had little of this type of movement in 2015. Figure 2.36: Census Tract Map Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-32 Table 2.3: Housing Values, Costs, and Affordability Gap Tract Median Home Value Median Income Income to Afford Median Valued Home Difference Total Housing + transportation Costs (% Income) Census Tract 231 $486,100 $126,563 $145,830 $19,267 65% Census Tract 235.01 $344,000 $69,207 $103,200 $33,993 49% Census Tract 235.02 $478,500 $112,833 $143,550 $30,717 65% Census Tract 236 $861,400 $194,219 $258,420 $64,201 80% Census Tract 237 $387,000 $101,743 $116,100 $14,357 58% Census Tract 238.01 $414,900 $123,375 $124,470 $1,095 63% Census Tract 238.02 $340,200 $90,761 $102,060 $11,299 57% Census Tract 239.01 $419,100 $121,429 $125,730 $4,301 63% Census Tract 239.02 $618,800 $141,141 $185,640 $44,499 80% Census Tract 239.03 $465,000 $102,344 $139,500 $37,156 61% Census Tract 240.03 $403,100 $72,380 $120,930 $48,550 41% Census Tract 240.04 $145,800 $49,957 $43,740 -$6,217 37% Census Tract 240.05 $137,100 $42,368 $41,130 -$1,238 37% Census Tract 240.06 $421,700 $119,583 $126,510 $6,927 66% Source: US Census Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-33 Average housing and transportation costs vary dramatically in Edina. Three census tracts in the city (240.03, 240.04, and 240.05) are below the recommended housing and transportation costs of 45% of income, and one tract (235.01) is just above this mark at 49%. Most tracts spend between 57% and 66% of their income on housing and transportation. Two tracts (236 and 239.02) spend an average of 80% of household income on housing and transportation, which is well above recommended affordability levels. These two tracts have the highest median home values and the highest median incomes in Edina, but the gap between the median income and the income needed to affordably own the home is still very wide. Source: Housing and Transportation Affordability Index, Center for Neighborhood Technology 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90% Census Tract 231, Census Tract 235.01, Census Tract 235.02, Census Tract 236, Census Tract 237, Census Tract 238.01, Census Tract 238.02, Census Tract 239.01, Census Tract 239.02, Census Tract 239.03, Census Tract 240.03, Census Tract 240.04, Census Tract 240.05, Census Tract 240.06, Figure 2.37: Housing and Transportation Costs, Percent of Income Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-34 Census tracts in Edina also vary greatly by household size. Tracts 231, 236, 238,01, 239.01, and 239.02 all have 30% or more of their households with four or more people. This indicates a high number of households with young children. On the other hand, around 60% of the households in tracts 240.04 and 240.05 have just one resident. This is due to the large percentage of multifamily housing in these tracts, particularly senior housing. Table 2.4: Persons Per Household (% of households) Tracts 1 Person 2 Persons 3 Persons 4 or More Persons Census Tract 231 14.0 38.3 14.3 33.5 Census Tract 235.01 41.6 32.3 12.2 13.9 Census Tract 235.02 30.5 36.3 13 20.1 Census Tract 236 16.3 32.7 12.3 38.7 Census Tract 237 24.2 40.9 11.7 23.1 Census Tract 238.01 19.2 30.7 17 33 Census Tract 238.02 24.3 35.8 11.3 28.6 Census Tract 239.01 10.6 39.2 18.9 31.3 Census Tract 239.02 12.6 36.1 15.4 35.9 Census Tract 239.03 40.2 32.1 9.6 18.1 Census Tract 240.03 27.3 38.8 14.3 19.6 Census Tract 240.04 58.4 24.9 11.7 5 Census Tract 240.05 60.4 30.6 4.1 4.9 Census Tract 240.06 26.4 31 13.9 28.7 Source: US Census 2010 Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-35 Employment As with population, total employment in Edina has been on the rise for decades, particularly between 1970 and 2000. There was a dip between 2000 and 2010 related to the recession, but jobs have been growing again in recent years. The ratio of population to jobs has been fairly consistent over time in Edina, with approximately one job for every one resident and about two jobs for every city resident in the 16-64 age range. As a significant number of residents are not in the workforce, this means that the city is a net importer of workers, functioning as part of a regional job concentration as defined by the Metropolitan Council. Combined with other cities like Eden Prairie and Bloomington, the southwest metro is one of the economic hubs of the Twin Cities area. Source: Metropolitan Council, MN-DEED 0 100K 200K 300K 0K 50K 100K 150K 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016 Minneapolis JobsJobsFigure 2.38: Total City Employment, 1970-2016 for Edina and Adjacent Communities Edina Bloomington Eden Prairie Minnetonka Richfield St. Louis Park Minneapolis Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-36 Figure 2.39: Generalized Job Concentrations Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-37 Employment by Industry Employment by industry in Edina and Hennepin County is summarized in Table 2.5. The industries with the largest employment in Edina are health care and social assistance, administrative and waste services, retail trade, and finance and insurance. The ones that have been the fastest growing include management of companies and enterprises, health care and social assistance, and accommodation, and food services. Industries with recent declines in employment include professional and technical services and manufacturing. For more information on the implications of these trends, see the Economic Competitiveness chapter. Table 2.5: Employment by Industry, 2000-2016 Edina Hennepin County Industry 2000 2010 2016 Chg 00-16 2000 2010 2016 Chg 00-16 Accommodation and Food Services 2,354 3,517 3,624 54% 57,895 60,170 68,755 19% Administrative and Waste Services 5,644 6,028 7,176 27% 61,018 51,518 58,254 -5% All Other Industries 1,858 2,163 2,873 55% 89,472 56,841 67,950 -24% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 967 588 1,019 5% 12,158 13,120 15,837 30% Educational Services 1,720 2,198 1,954 14% 50,960 60,333 62,027 22% Finance and Insurance 4,582 5,446 4,263 -7% 67,334 67,263 68,243 1% Health Care and Social Assistance 7,335 7,756 10,518 43% 87,064 112,587 136,284 57% Information 1,213 586 859 -29% 31,844 21,173 19,437 -39% Management of Companies and Enterprises 579 1,948 1,878 224% 39,632 40,186 44,647 13% Manufacturing 4,374 1,778 1,614 -63% 104,410 70,723 74,577 -29% Other Services, Ex. Public Admin 2,499 1,888 2,366 -5% 28,305 25,276 27,092 -4% Professional and Technical Services 6,683 4,949 4,884 -27% 71,191 67,274 91,401 28% Public Administration 287 333 392 37% 24,125 24,929 25,707 7% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 2,791 1,707 1,572 -44% 17,828 17,776 16,595 -7% Retail Trade 6,973 5,083 5,615 -19% 83,617 72,262 78,341 -6% Wholesale Trade 3,132 1,489 1,723 -45% 50,841 44,010 46,702 -8% Source: US Census Bureau Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-38 Compared to Hennepin County, Edina has higher percentages of employment in administrative and waste services, health care and social assistance, retail trade, and real estate and rental and leasing. Table 2.6: Percentage Employment by Industry, 2016 Industry Edina Hennepin Accommodation and Food Services 7% 8% Administrative and Waste Services 14% 6% All Other Industries 5% 8% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 2% 2% Educational Services 4% 7% Finance and Insurance 8% 8% Health Care and Social Assistance 20% 15% Information 2% 2% Management of Companies and Enterprises 4% 5% Manufacturing 3% 8% Other Services, Ex. Public Admin 5% 3% Professional and Technical Services 9% 10% Public Administration 1% 3% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 3% 2% Retail Trade 11% 9% Wholesale Trade 3% 5% Source: US Census Bureau Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-39 Labor Force Participation As of 2016, there were around 25,340 people in Edina in the labor force, or about 64% of the population 16 years and older. As shown in the following graph, except for the teenage years, male residents are more likely to be employed than females throughout their lives. The highest percentage of both men and women who work is in the 20-54 age range, decreasing in subsequent years. Source: US Census Bureau 41% 76% 67% 27% 4% 34% 94% 84% 50% 11% 16-19 20-54 55-64 65-74 75+Age GroupFigure 2.40: Percentage of Edina Workers in Labor Force by Age and Sex, 2016 Female Male Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-40 In 2016, Edina had one of the lowest labor force participation rates among the comparison cities. Along with Bloomington and Minnetonka, Edina saw a decline in the labor force participation rate between 2000 and 2016. For Edina, that continued a previous declining trend from 1990-2000. This reflects the fact that Edina parents with children at home are less likely to work outside the home than those in other cities. For instance, in Edina the share of children under age 6 with all parents working is 62%, compared to 74% in the Twin Cities region. For children aged 6-17, the percentages are 63% and 78%, respectively. Source: US Census Bureau 60% 70% 80% 90% Edina Bloomington Eden Prairie Minneapolis Minnetonka Richfield St. Louis Park Figure 2.41: Labor Force Participation Percentage of Age 16-64 Population for Edina and Adjacent Communities, 2000 & 2016 2000 2016 Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-41 Place of Work and Worker Residency City residents are impacted by work travel trips whether or not they commute to work, since work- related trips are a primary contributor to the burden placed on transportation infrastructure. The Metropolitan Council’s 2010 Travel Behavior Inventory estimates that around 18% trips on the roadway network are work commute trips. Around 40% of trips are social/recreational, 22% are to school or within work, and 20% are shopping/errand. Work commute trips tend to be the longest trip type, on average. Related to commuting patterns is the job distribution within the city. The heat map below shows concentrations of employment around the city. The main job concentrations include Greater Southdale area, the Cahill industrial area near Highway 100, near the intersection of TH 62 with TH 169 in the western part of the city, and the Grandview area. Figure 2.42: Job Density Patterns in Edina, 2016 Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-42 Around 75% of Edina residents that commute to work travel to a destination in Hennepin County. Most of the remainder travel to other metropolitan area counties. The top destination cities are Minneapolis, Edina, and Bloomington. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics Table 2.7: Top Edina Resident Commuter Destinations, 2015 Destination # Commuters % Commuters Minneapolis MN 5,798 27% Edina MN 2,763 13% Bloomington MN 1,904 9% Eden Prairie MN 1,085 5% St. Paul MN 1,085 5% St. Louis Park MN 846 4% Minnetonka MN 829 4% Golden Valley MN 590 3% Plymouth MN 492 2% Eagan MN 461 2% All Other Locations 5394 25% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics 13% 63% 9% 5% 6%5% Figure 2.43: Commuting Destinations of Edina Residents, 2015 Edina Hennepin Ramsey Dakota Scott, Anoka, Carver, Washington Other Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-43 As Edina is an employment center for the southwest metro in proximity to a number of others, it is not surprising that the percentage of people who both live and work in Edina (6%) is relatively low. About half of people who work in Edina live Hennepin County. The top cities where workers live are Minneapolis, Edina, and Bloomington. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics Table 2.8: Top Edina Worker Origins, 2015 Origin # Commuters % Commuters Minneapolis city, MN 5,221 12% Edina city, MN 2,763 6% Bloomington city, MN 2,539 6% St. Paul city, MN 2,014 5% Eden Prairie city, MN 1,822 4% Richfield city, MN 1,301 3% St. Louis Park city, MN 1,270 3% Eagan city, MN 1,098 3% Plymouth city, MN 1,048 2% Minnetonka city, MN 1,042 2% All Other Locations 23,395 54% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics 6% 44% 8% 12% 17% 13% Figure 2.44: Place of Residence of Edina Workers, 2015 Edina Hennepin Ramsey Dakota Scott, Anoka, Carver, Washington Other Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-44 Edina resident commuters compare favorably on travel time to work, with around three quarters of commuters traveling less than 30 minutes. This reflects the city’s proximity to many of the region’s major employment centers. Source: U.S. Census 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Edina Bloomington Eden Prairie Minnetonka Richfield St Louis Park Figure 2.45: Commuting Distance, 2016 Less than 10 minutes 10-19 minutes 20-29 minutes 30 minutes or longer Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-45 Employment Projections As part of the Thrive MSP 2040 plan, the Metropolitan Council projects future employment figures for all cities in the seven county region. Between the years 2010 and 2040, the Council projects that total employment in Edina will increase by about 18%. This is slightly faster than Richfield and St. Louis Park, but slower than Bloomington, Eden Prairie, Minneapolis, and Minnetonka. Source: Metropolitan Council A comparison of projected population and employment changes from 2010 to 2040 shows that employment is expected to grow at a faster rate than total population for Edina and other nearby cities. With employment growing, there are potential implications with additional work trips. However, as the 2010 Travel Behavior Inventory noted, telecommuting and working from home are becoming increasingly common – offsetting some of the need for commuting trips. Additionally, the inventory shows people increasingly choosing non-single occupant vehicles for travel. Therefore, the full impact of additional commuting trips may be mitigated by these factors. 0 50K 100K 150K 200K 250K 300K 350K 0K 20K 40K 60K 80K 100K 120K 2010 2020 2030 2040 Minneapolis Number of JobsNumber of JobsFigure 2.46: Projected Employment for Edina and Adjacent Communities, 2010-2040 Edina Bloomington Eden Prairie Minnetonka Richfield St. Louis Park Minneapolis Edina Comprehensive Plan Community Profile Chapter Draft 12-31-19 2-46 Source: Metropolitan Council 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Figure 2.47: Percentage Change in Employment and Population Projected for Edina and Adjacent Communities, 2010-2040 Percent Population Change Percent Employment Change Edina: A Community of Learning. Edina has a prized education system of high-quality public schools. The Community Profile chapter of the Comprehensive Plan recognizes the importance of extending the benefits of education to the entire community. The information compiled in this chapter can be a significant educational resource in terms of understanding the current population, economy, and other socioeconomic data. The City may use this as a stand-alone community profile, or as background information to inform another project. An example of a use may be to provide a baseline for community status prior to a planned change.