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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAppendix B4 Edina_Traffic_Model_Update_Memo 041116 Building a legacy – your legacy. 701 Xenia Avenue South Suite 300 Minneapolis, MN 55416 Tel: 763-541-4800 Fax: 763-541-1700 Equal Opportunity Employer wsbeng.com Technical Memorandum To: Chad Millner PE, Director of Engineering Mark Nolan, AICP, Transportation Planner City of Edina From: Chuck Rickart PE, PTOE, Transportation Engineer Tony Heppelmann PE, Transportation Engineer Sudheer Dhulipala, Transportation Planner WSB and Associates, Inc. Date: April 11, 2016 Re: Edina Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Study Project Update WSB Project No: 1686-670 Introduction/Background In 2008 WSB assisted the City in the development of a traffic model using the Synchro/SimTraffic modeling software for the Southeast area (Southdale) of the City. The study area was bounded by TH 62 (Crosstown) on the north, the Richfield/Edina border on the east, the Bloomington/Edina border on the south and TH 100 on the west. The model included 40 signalized intersections, 20 un-signalized intersections, and three roundabouts. The purpose in developing the model was to provide a consistent baseline for traffic analysis and to provide continuously updated results to help gauge the compound effect of multiple developments in the Southdale area. Since the model was completed, it has been used by several developers and the City in reviewing the area traffic impacts of proposed development. Although, the model has been continually updated with traffic characteristics from approved developments the original traffic conditions were based on 2007 traffic counts. It is now in need of updating and recalibration with new traffic counts. Also in 2008 WSB assisted the City in preparation of the Transportation Plan in conjunction with the Comprehensive Plan update. As part of the Transportation Plan a city wide transportation planning model was developed for the existing and future land use projections. Sense the preparation of the land use projections in the Transportation Plan density changes have occurred in the Southdale area. In addition questions of the appropriate density have been asked for the area specifically on the west side of France Avenue. Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 2 In March of 2015 the City Council appointed a working group that developed the Working Principles for the France Avenue Southdale Area. These principals will serve as a tool to guide the development process for the whole Southdale area, and demonstrate methods that might be used during the Comprehensive Plan update in 2018. In order to provide data to assist in moving this process to the next stages, development of transportation forecasts should be completed. The purpose of this project is to: 1. Update the existing Synchro/SimTraffic traffic model in the Southdale area, Including expanding the study area to north of TH 62 to W. 60th Street; 2. Updating the CUBE transportation planning model for the entire City, and; 3. Preparation of a transportation analysis for two land use density scenarios for the Southdale area. 4. Review and analysis of pedestrian/bicycle connections and conflicts in the Southdale area in relation to the local/regional system. Figure 1 shows the study area and intersections included with the analysis. The following sections of this memorandum provide an update on the data collection and preliminary study results. Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 3 Figure 1: Study Intersections Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 4 Existing Traffic Conditions WSB collected traffic counts at several locations and used traffic counts provided by Hennepin County and the City of Edina to update the Synchro/SimTraffic models. Traffic signal timing information was updated based on information provided by Hennepin County. Lane geometry, new intersections, changes of intersection control and other information like speed limits were updated based on field visit to all the study intersections. Figure 2 shows the existing Average Daily Traffic volumes on the adjacent roadways. The turning movement counts obtained from the field were input into the Synchro/SimTraffic model and the SimTraffic model was run for five replications. The results from the five simulations were then averaged. Figure 3 shows the existing Level of Service (LOS) at the study intersections. It should be noted that Roundabouts and Stop Controlled intersections are classified as unsignalized intersections and have different delay thresholds than signalized intersections according to the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM). Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 5 Figure 2: Existing Average Daily Traffic Volumes Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 6 Figure 3: Existing Level of Service Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 7 Forecasted 2040 Conditions The regional Travel Demand Model developed by Metropolitan Council was utilized to obtain base 2040 forecasts for traffic growth in the area. The models were updated with projected traffic and the forecasted 2040 level of service was determined at the study intersections. Subsequently, an alternative analysis was conducted with updated information on development density in the City’s Transportation Analysis Zones (TAZs) in the Southdale area. The regional model was rerun with the higher density conditions and traffic growth rates were estimated for the year 2040 with the higher density developments in place. Using the growth rates obtained from this alternative, the Synchro/SimTraffic model was updated to reflect higher traffic forecasts and the Level of Service under this scenario. Areas of concern were highlighted. In order to understand the impacts of increasing the density of development in the Southdale Area, an alternative was analyzed which involved increasing the development density in future leading to higher number of trips. Table 1 below shows the assumptions used in this alternative. The increased density was assumed to be in form of number of households Table 1: Population and Households Assumptions These assumptions correspond to trip generation numbers from each zone as shown in Table 2 below. Table 2: Change in Number of Trips TAZ 2040 Population - Base Scenario 2040 Number of Households - Base Scenario Comp Plan Average Density (Units/Acre) High Density Assumption (Units/Acre) Increase Factor 2040 Population - High Density Scenario 2040 Number Of Households - High Density Scenario 512 2170 1130 21.00 50.00 2.4 5167 2690 513 5060 2610 19.75 48.00 2.4 12298 6343 514 280 130 43.50 100.00 2.3 644 299 515 3110 1550 33.50 65.00 1.9 6034 3007 517 1560 680 22.80 50.00 2.2 3421 1491 518 6470 2910 9.55 14.25 1.5 9654 4342 519 1930 880 10.35 13.25 1.3 2471 1127 Total 20580 9890 39689 19299N/A Productions Attractions Total Productions Attractions Total Absolute Change Percent Change 512 11340 18641 29981 20810 24249 45059 15078 50% 513 25413 32107 57520 47950 45611 93561 36041 63% 514 9836 23915 33751 11116 24632 35749 1998 6% 515 14735 19284 34019 24425 24633 49059 15040 44% 517 15669 40355 56024 22234 43488 65722 9698 17% 518 25110 19261 44371 36392 24980 61372 17001 38% 519 9106 11176 20282 11053 12177 23230 2948 15% 2040 Base Scenario 2040 High Density Scenario Total Change TAZ Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 8 Figure 4 shows the increase in households and population along with resulting trip increases from each Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ). Figure 4: TAZ Trip Increase Assumptions Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 9 Figure 5 shows the Average Daily Traffic (ADT) as forecasted by the travel demand model for the year 2040 base condition. Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 10 Figure 6 shows the percentage change in ADT as forecasted by the travel demand model for the year 2040. Figure 6: Base ADT Percentage Change Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 11 Figure 7 shows the forecasted 2040 ADT in the high density scenario. Figure 7: 2040 High Density Scenario ADT Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 12 Figure 8 shows the percentage change in ADT for the increased density scenario compared to the 2010 model. Figure 8: High Density Scenario ADT Percentage Change Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 13 The turning movement volumes for the PM peak hour in 2040 were estimated based on the ADT growth percentages derived from the model for various links. The turning movements were then simulated in the Synchro/SimTraffic network. Figure 9 shows the 2040 Level of Service assuming growth levels consistent with the 2040 regional travel demand model. The turning movement volumes for the PM peak hour were adjusted from the base condition based on the ADT growth percentages derived from the high density scenario model. Figure 10 shows the Level of Service at the study intersections in the High Density Scenario assuming no significant improvements to the intersections from current conditions. It should be noted that at intersections which do not currently have an LOS F, there may still be individual movements that are at LOS E or F. Figure 11 shows individual movements that are at LOS E or F at the study intersections. Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 14 Figure 9: 2040 Base Level of Service Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 15 Figure 10: High Density Scenario Level of Service Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 16 Figure 11: High Density Scenario LOS By Movement Southdale Area Model Update and Transportation Plan 17 Summary Based on the modeling in both the 2040 base scenario and 2040 high density scenario some traffic issues, with specific movements will exist if no changes are made to the transportation system. Most of these issues can be addressed by relatively low-cost improvements such as:  Installation of traffic signals at stop controlled intersections;  Improvements to turning lane geometry, or;  Signal timing As traffic continues to grow and development is proposed in the area, traffic studies will be required that will identify specific improvement needs. Next Steps The following next steps will be completed. 1. Draft results reviewed by the Edina Transportation Commission (ETC) at their April 20, 2016 meeting. 2. Address issues and concern from ETC and incorporate them into the Draft and Final reports. 3. With identification of transportation issue areas complete the pedestrian/bicycle analysis and review. 4. Prepare Draft study report documenting; existing conditions, 2040 development scenarios, pedestrian/bicycle analysis and identifying issue areas with specific improvement alternatives. 5. Prepare Final study report based on comments from the Draft report.